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Met Office Have Predicted Coldest Winter For A Decade

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Apparently the met office are predicting this winter will be the coldest winter in a decade...

Therefore more demand for oil.

It's already quite cold *Brrr* and it's only September!

Can't wait 'til January... :o

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It is possible to look at along term averages and trends, but what you get is a prediction or probability, not a forecast! It is symantics to a certain extent but the science behind the words is very different.

However, the asset markets may not realise that and if the US come out and predict a cold winter, just watch the oil futures!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I would not put too much stress on met office forecasts of this winter until we are well and truly in winter. Anything more than 5-10 days ahead is pure speculation

I agree, but I always take notice of the Sparrow Hawk who visits my garden. No longer Sparrows for him the big juicy Pidgeons are a must. Fattening himself up for a cold cold winter. He knows. <_<

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Hmm. The cynic in me thinks that if their modelling even hints at this, this forecast is the safe option.

If it turns out wrong, sighs of relief all round.

The opposite way and they are pilloried.

All organisations have to consider their PR.

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People ask me if I regret selling to rent – I have always said no

But next year I might just regret it as I sold in sunny sunny London and moved to the coldest part of Norfolk (You haven’t seen ice until you see Norfolk ice). God help me if we have a cold one this year

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It says it at the bottom of the page that winter will not be cold:

Winter 2005/6

Added : Wed 21 Sep : 11:18:37 AM

The Metcheck Winter forecast will be released on October 15th this year, however, we've been taking a look at some of the early indices currently available.

Snow cover is probably one of the most powerful driving forces for weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of two reasons. The first is that snow has high albedo and non-snow covered land will absorb between four and six times more energy than snow covered land.

The other, is that when the snow melts, energy is drained from the boundary layer, energy which could again go into heating the soil.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the land to sea ratio is about equal, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere there is almost four times the amount of water than land.

The link between late Spring snowfall and the forthcoming Summer across the Atlantic is well known. Late snowfall will result in a delayed and often, average summer for many.

The link between Autumn snow cover and the forthcoming winter is, however, a little more complex. In short, the more snow across the Eurasian plateau from May to September, results in less energy for the Northern Hemisphere and blocked, cold winters are common.

At present, only half the snow data is available, which is why the winter forecast isn't released until October, but early indications, with the Eurasian plateau about 823,000 sq km down on the amount of snow we would normally see, means that a blocked, colder than average winter, is looking less and less likely this year.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Weather forcasting is hardly the most reliable science.

I'm sure they'll be able to give us a more accurate assessement by April 2006 at the latest.

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If thinking about oil prices, it's probably better to consider what the weather will be doing in North America this winter. Their heating energy needs are likely to be much higher than the UK's.

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Apparently the met office are predicting this winter will be the coldest winter in a decade...

Therefore more demand for oil.

It's already quite cold *Brrr* and it's only September!

Can't wait 'til January... :o

damn, I was hoping to reduce my gas usage this winter. I'll have to dig out some warm jumpers....

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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