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Uk Economy Wrist Slashers Can Put Away Their Blades Over Gdp Result

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8478787/UK-economy-wrist-slashers-can-put-away-their-blades-over-GDP-result.html

Services, which account for three quarters of the economy, grew at 0.9pc, their strongest rate since 2006. Indeed when you add in industrial output then 93pc of the economy expanded at 0.8pc in the first quarter.

The black mark was construction where output fell 4.7pc, which dragged back GDP growth to 0.5pc. But as economists such as Simon Ward at Henderson pointed out, that poor result reflects the after effects of December's weather-related disruption. More recent monthly data suggest a rebound in February and March.

So the economic wrist slashers should put away the razor blades. Things are bad but we're at least still on the same bumpy road to recovery with a fundable debt position thanks to a credible policy of fiscal consolidation.

There was certainly nothing in Wednesday's figures, which may yet be revised upwards, to suggest the hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee are wrong to carry on calling for a tightening in monetary policy.

Or may be revised downwards....

Heard something on the TV saying construction was down due to govt cutting back.... I have to admit I love the bit about 93% of the UK economy expanded. Considering the size of the public sector in the UK economy it's not a great boast to be making...

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http://www.telegraph...GDP-result.html

Or may be revised downwards....

Heard something on the TV saying construction was down due to govt cutting back.... I have to admit I love the bit about 93% of the UK economy expanded. Considering the size of the public sector in the UK economy it's not a great boast to be making...

They seemed to be pretty good to me. Manufacturing (amazing we have any left at all) was pretty strong. Had to be presented cynically of course by Stephanie Flounders (one of BallsUp's pets).

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Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/8478787/UK-economy-wrist-slashers-can-put-away-their-blades-over-GDP-result.html

Or may be revised downwards....

Heard something on the TV saying construction was down due to govt cutting back.... I have to admit I love the bit about 93% of the UK economy expanded. Considering the size of the public sector in the UK economy it's not a great boast to be making...

The full information from Simon Henderson can be found here:

http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/4/27/uk-gdp-detail-shows-economic-recovery-on-track.html

The ONS construction figures are clearly inaccurate IMO. Looks like there will be a bounce in Q2 due to the poor Q1. The construction figures are not representative of actual construction output. Also industrial production was hit in February due to Oil rig maintenance I think.

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Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

Allegedly they do. Although I think it could be a mute point as the GDP figures are messaged with an inflation figure that isn't actually the inflation figure. I'm sure someone on here posted that the inflation figure used was something like 3%, which is great when inflation is well over 4% in the official figures and probably a lot higher in reality.

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Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

I agree, we should go back to a massive debt based bubble, and creating more and more public sector non jobs. That is clearly the way forward!

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For me, the lay-person, can someone tell me if this 0.5% GDP growth includes inflation?

Ta very much.

It's nominal, so: Yes, it does.

You'll notice the annualised growth rate is well below price inflation.

Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

Good point, but it's actually negative growth.

1. Down 0.5% then up 0.5% is a contraction overall.

2. Last quarter has been revised down to -0.6% I think.

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This is an interesting graph from Citi. If you look at public sector investment it is way down and this has to be affecting construction because that is basically all it is (also as a side note this is a result of Darlings last budget which halved the public investment budget which was ironic because at the time Brown was on his Keynsian rant about spending taxpayer money bringing investment forward to create jobs).

Also of note look at the business investment, this will be for increased production and increased effciency and bodes well for the future. Also exports as well.

If only Huhne would build enough nukes to provide 90% of our elecy to guarantee supply to manufacturers (remember when the winter was very cold gas was turned off from business so the people could keep warm) we have a chance of doing well as a country in the future.

Osbourne is taking the long view to rebalance the economy as opposed to Brown who would have stoked a house price, consumption boom because that would be eaiser to achieve. Osbourne should at least get some credit for trying to what is right for the country.

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I don't know why the meedja get so hung up on a first guess of a figure which is almost always revised later on.

PMI surveys indicate increased activity, companies are now sitting on huge amounts of cash and reducing borrowings. Stockmarket is not overvalued. Seems the Government's desire to see lending to business is being met by a reluctance to do so by the sorts of outfits the banks would like to lend to. There is plenty to be optimistic about, manufacturing headcount has decreased in the last decades as more high-tech processes increase productivity. I'm not saying manufacturing has not had its problems, but it's not as simple as counting bodies in factories.

A sustained reduction in the public sector workforce would be welcome in my view, and the current lot show little desire to really make an impact. "The cuts" are nothing of the sort as government spending is increasing in nominal terms throughout this parliament. It feels bad because our interest bill is increasing due to the previous administration's inability/unwillingness to spend within its means.

Interest rates should rise soon, as it risks more severe rises later, but that seems like wishful thinking. I agree with the sentiment in the title of the post. There are reasons to be cheerful overall but the government id going to have to do more in order to reduce the fraction of spending wasted on interest payments. It works out to be a colossal sum, enough to finance a couple of big departments. Criminal laxity from Broon/Balls, in my view.

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Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

Yes, no doubt assisted by lugging around 13 years of record liebour debt...

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Considering that there was a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter blamed on the weather, these figures are poor.

Zero growth in six months due to gideons policies!!

If the previous contraction was just down to one bad month weather wise it would be expected that the spenders would just spend what they were going to as soon as the weather improved and any manufacturers who suffered problems would step things up to cover the backed up orders.

In other words, a slight upturn would be normal as long as the weather only caused people to delay plans rather than cancel them.

In mathematical terms taking 0.5% off followed by adding 0.5% on does not take you back to your original figure. The two combined actually result in very slightly negative growth.

Everyone I speak to says "Recovery? What recovery". And that is genuinely everyone. I have never known such consistently pessimistic feelings to be voiced at any time in my living memory.

Only some members of this forum and coalition politicians buck the trend.

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PMI surveys indicate increased activity, companies are now sitting on huge amounts of cash and reducing borrowings. Stockmarket is not overvalued.

Are companies really sitting on huge amounts of cash? I'd need to see some hard evidence before I swallowed that.

Reducing borrowings? Why would they be doing that? There's never been a better time to be in debt. Rates are at an all time low.

And the stock market is always overvalued. It's just a matter of how much.

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I agree, we should go back to a massive debt based bubble, and creating more and more public sector non jobs. That is clearly the way forward!

Said in jest I know, but more than a few say that and mean it.

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For me, the lay-person, can someone tell me if this 0.5% GDP growth includes inflation?

Ta very much.

Despite the post below the GDP is a real estimate and not a monetary one therefore it excludes inflation.

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I agree, we should go back to a massive debt based bubble, and creating more and more public sector non jobs. That is clearly the way forward!

Go back to?!? We're still there.

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Yes, no doubt assisted by lugging around 13 years of record liebour debt...

Very true.

However we've already had 13 years worth of "it's the previous lot's fault" excuses, we don't need any more.

It will nearly be a year of coalition power soon, time for action not excuses. Maybe the amount of delays and uturns indicates some hesitancy in implementing policy.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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