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G.d.p. Figures Tomorrow

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Any guesses?

Another minus figure and we're officially back in recession.

A small positive figure of less than 0.5% and it's 'steady as she goes'.

A large positive figure, greater than 0.5% and the way is cleared for an IR hike in May?

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Any guesses?

Another minus figure and we're officially back in recession.

A small positive figure of less than 0.5% and it's 'steady as she goes'.

A large positive figure, greater than 0.5% and the way is cleared for an IR hike in May?

No rise. Whatever the figure, the situation will remain 'delicate'.

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I am expecting them to be unexpectedly low.

The waiter is still waiting for Brown's miracle to be paid for and its well past lunchtime.

I would go short of £ if I could--and long on US treasuries again (which I can!).

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Seems odd that such a pile of buffoons wouldn't try to pull some stunt to at least make it non-negative.

It will be -0.3% but, they will cunningly add an extra - sign in front of this figure. As 2 negatives make a positive, they will be able to then switch the --0.3% to a +0.3% and save us from the evil that is the double dipper.

phew.

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It will be -0.3% but, they will cunningly add an extra - sign in front of this figure. As 2 negatives make a positive, they will be able to then switch the --0.3% to a +0.3% and save us from the evil that is the double dipper.

phew.

Bring on the double dip.....does anyone actually believe we went out of recession ?

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They'll be unexpectetd and whatever way they go they will be used as reason for keeping IR's low !!!

:lol:

Queue American Drawl//

Last time they where unexpectedly unexpected - this time they will be expectedly unexpected. The pattern is clear and emerging, we are moving back to an expectedly expected situation.

\\End of the Rumsfeldian Rantation.

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Any guesses?

Another minus figure and we're officially back in recession.

A small positive figure of less than 0.5% and it's 'steady as she goes'.

A large positive figure, greater than 0.5% and the way is cleared for an IR hike in May?

I reckon b - small positive. That way there's no renewed recession but no need to increase interest rates.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/26/economy-on-right-track-george-osborne-gdp

Osborne has said the GDP figures put the UK economy

"“roughly in the right place" and is "on the right track"

He gets them 24 hours in advance. I am quite surprised he has commented publicly like this.

I am not going bother with a number prediction. As mentioned elsewhere the figures seem to be a created from a random number generator at times.

Whatever the figure is I think the best part of Growth will be from net trade and services. Construction will subtract 0.5% ish, Industrial production / Manufacturing should have bounced back from the Oil platform maintenance that led to a 1.2% drop in March. We have all the retail numbers from Q1 (+1.5%, -0.9% and +0.2%).

I would be surprised if the figure is negative only because Osborne would look rather silly if "on the right track" was mired in recession.

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- 4.8

Seriously though, if Osborne believes this drivel then god help us all - "“roughly in the right place" and is "on the right track". :blink:

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In the light of Gideons comments, I reckon they will be positive, the magnitude something similar to the drop last time, but not enough to make up all 0.5%.

So, +0.4% for me!

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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but not enough to make up all 0.5%.

So, +0.4% for me!

Weird innit, you can have -0.1% and -0.1% consecutively and we're in recession, but if we have -1.0% and +0.1% we're not in recession.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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