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ExeC

Whats Wrong With People ?

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Its like that guy from dads army, "We're all doomed".

Seriously theres a few people who need to get a grip on reality, recommending buying guns, joining self sufficient communitys.

Really, this place was great last year, good intelligent talk about the economy, house prices.

Since the bearish news, its like people have gone mental.

Things will be bad yes, but christ, its like some people are so bored they dream up imaginary mad max scenarios. The world just wont go like that.

And a lot of these posts actully make this site look more of a joke to the general public who see it, you gotta realise how different it is if your blinded from the facts about crash gordon and the government.

You remember when you first saw this site as an FTB etc, how much your eyes were opened to the truth.

Now 50% of the posts are full of people describing the upcoming world war 3 because of energy etc. and how we need to buy guns and dig a hole.

Really :/

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Now 50% of the posts are full of people describing the upcoming world war 3 because of energy etc. and how we need to buy guns and dig a hole.

I think you need a shovel! :P

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Its like that guy from dads army, "We're all doomed".

Seriously theres a few people who need to get a grip on reality, recommending buying guns, joining self sufficient communitys.

Really, this place was great last year, good intelligent talk about the economy, house prices.

Since the bearish news, its like people have gone mental.

Things will be bad yes, but christ, its like some people are so bored they dream up imaginary mad max scenarios. The world just wont go like that.

Hopefully, things will not go like that, but as we have seen in the US, things can change very quickly. What's the phrase, "we're only 4 meals from anarchy"? It seems very likely that we are entering the period of the end of cheap oil, and cheap fossil fuels in general. Given that our civilization is built on fossil fuels, it doesn't take too much imagination to see that there are some very big problems coming (e.g. see:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Colum...1578885,00.html

)

Peter.

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i need to be able to afford some land, before I can dig my hole.

That's no problem - once the Third World War is over there will be lots of cheap land available. It might be a tad hot and glow in the dark but, heck, it will be cheap!

Joking aside, I was doing some figures early this morning looking at houses that I was interested in back around 2000/2001. Back then, I worked out I needed one more year's work/savings in order to be able to afford a decent deposit on them.

Alas, all of them have since doubled, trebled or even quadrupled in price to a point where I simply cannot afford to buy them. In fact, I can't even afford to rent them out at the rents that are being asked by the owners who now want to sell/rent them - whichever comes first. I did some calculations on a mortgage calculator and worked out that even the rents being asked for could not even cover the mortgages that the people who had bought them a year, two or three ago.

So, if the prices paid for such houses a few years back cannot be covered by asked rent what chance do I have, at current prices, of buying? None!

I think many, many people are in exactly the same boat and hence they now realise that the only way houses will ever be affordable by them will be via an enormous financial crash. It is only natural to conclude that this will have dire affects Worldwide. Remember, the last such 'big' crash resulted in terrible conflict ad death around the World.

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Hopefully, things will not go like that, but as we have seen in the US, things can change very quickly. What's the phrase, "we're only 4 meals from anarchy"? It seems very likely that we are entering the period of the end of cheap oil, and cheap fossil fuels in general. Given that our civilization is built on fossil fuels, it doesn't take too much imagination to see that there are some very big problems coming (e.g. see:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Colum...1578885,00.html

)

Peter.

But thats the thing, in 2000 years we've overcome a lot worse than no oil. Its human nature, we will always overcome whatever problem comes our way.

Replacements will be imposed before the oil runs dry, of course the build up willl be tough, shortages etc.

But people are going way over the top saying we need guns and big trenches ready to defend the gold we buried in the garden.

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One could sense the disappointment when Hurricane Rita failed to deliver a crushing blow to US refining capacity. I picture a large fraction of the HPC community sitting around in candlelight in their WWII air raid shelters discussing old episodes of 'Survivors'.

Of course, Armageddon could happen. But it probably won't, in our lifetimes anyway.

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I tend to agree. Being bearish on the house market and pessimistic re the economy is one thing but predicting the downfall of western civlisation does little for the credibility of the forum nor the posters involved. Get a grip!

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But thats the thing, in 2000 years we've overcome a lot worse than no oil. Its human nature, we will always overcome whatever problem comes our way.

Indeed, humanity does tend to bounce back, but I don't think that people are saying that it's the end of humanity, they're saying that it's the beginning of the end of Western civilization. And, if you look back in history, you'll see that every civilization (apart from the current one) has ended. Do you think that ours will be any different?

Peter.

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agreed .... I think it is fast becoming a mad "conspiracy theorists" site ... I would not be surprised if the secret services start monitoring it for behaviour not in the national interest.

they probably already do anyway. one of the mods probably is in contact with MI5 for any unusual or suspicious postings. they probably pay him with secret agent curley wurleys. at best one mod is possibly a special branch informant.

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Indeed, humanity does tend to bounce back, but I don't think that people are saying that it's the end of humanity, they're saying that it's the beginning of the end of Western civilization. And, if you look back in history, you'll see that every civilization (apart from the current one) has ended. Do you think that ours will be any different?

Peter.

If you asking me if western civilization is coming to an end ?

Certain aspects of technology, ecomony will change. thats about it.

And im sure 70% of the population will be tucked away at home over the next 15 years and really not notice much has happened, except stuff costing them more.

Edited by ExeC

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Even a so-called 'Armageddon' would just be a low-point in a cycle. Humanity is always on an upward path.

'Peak oil' to me simply means prices will rise sufficiently to flush out improved alternatives. A 'fiat money breakdown and switch to gold', will simply re-invigorate the economy and reduce the level of malinvestment in unproductive activities.

I would be surprised if I'm not here in 50 years, being kept alive by high-tech medical technologies, with massive levels of nantechnological manufacturing industry working in space, using the materials from the asteroid belt, with a life of computer enhanced communication, interaction, entertainment, productivity, sex and travel.

(Hopefullly in some futuristic-looking white-walled house with lots of glass.)

You're a Trekkie! ;)

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If you asking me if western civilization is coming to an end ?

Certain aspects of technology, ecomony will change. thats about it.

And im sure 70% of the population will be tucked away at home over the next 15 years and really not notice much has happened, except stuff costing them more.

Are you saying that Western civilization won't end at some point?

Peter.

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The most significant change that I can see coming is the reversal of the economics of houses and cars.

2005: Anyone with a job can afford a car but only the wealthy can afford to own/buy property. The boom in "shoe box" construction is symbolic of the era.

2015: Anyone with a reasonable job can afford to own/buy a house but only the truly wealthy can afford to run a car on a daily basis. The boom in the number of people using public transport and the flat out construction of new systems worldwide is symbolic of the era.

This doesn't mean the end of the world though. Just the end, for the moment at least, of the present relative pricing of housing and private motorised transport.

Edited by Smurf1976

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peak oil ? i sh1t on peak oil. dont worry. dont worry at all.

as soon as it outbalances the cost of developing energies then the focus will shift and solar will become effcient and a viable alternative. solar can work if developed fully with the right money and right brains on it. just at the moment its easier and lazier to use oil.

we wont end up in a powerless world while a giant free sun powers the solar system.???

get real. we'll find a way to harness it.

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Are you saying that Western civilization won't end at some point?

Peter.

In the historical context 'civilisation' is too broad a concept for any definitive end to be called, especially for something as amorphous and vast as 'western civilisation'. The Roman Empire ended, as did the British Empire, but elements of those are very much alive and kicking today. But 'Empire' is a much narrower concept than 'civilisation'.

In practice, as history passes, 'civilisations' ebb, flow, and most importantly merge or are subsumed. But useful features remain.

I don't think there will be a time in the future when the affairs of humans are not profoundly influenced by 'western civilisation' if by that we mean respect for scientific process, forms of democracy, religious tolerance or (hopefully) progressive benign disinterest, a semblance of market economics etc.

But we'll see.

And house prices will still crash. Probably.

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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'Peak oil' to me simply means prices will rise sufficiently to flush out improved alternatives. A 'fiat money breakdown and switch to gold', will simply re-invigorate the economy and reduce the level of malinvestment in unproductive activities.

One reads posts like this with awe.

One minute we read/are being told we must reduce our wage levels in the West to the level of Chinese peasants.

Next read that we can all afford to buy/build wonderful new technology cars/houses etc as Oil prices take off for the stratosphere.

Get real!!

There is nothing better than being forewarned by fellow posters, just as you would with an HPC, share crash etc

People can't stand change from their daily routine - that's why most see these Oil etc warnings in a negative way.

And so you all should - it will be a natural human cull :lol:

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Are you saying that Western civilization won't end at some point?

Peter.

It was Ghandi, wasn't it, who, when asked what he thought of Western Civilization, said he thought it was a great idea!

I'm glad someone's brought this up - I find all the backwoodsman stuff a bit offputting. Not to say there isn't sense in it and not that the site shouldn't be a forum for discussions of broader issues - I've learned loads about all kinds of things on here - but like many HPCers, I'm sure, I've mentioned this site to a lot of people and I'd hate them to come in on a day when the top threads are about starting gun-toting self-sufficient communities in Cheriton Fitzpayne or what-have-you.

That said, ahem, there was an interesting programme last night on the World Service about how things are going to look in terms of economic might in 2050.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programm...mentary_1.shtml

It's very measured stuff - shouldn't have anyone reaching for the AK47.

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Hopefully, things will not go like that, but as we have seen in the US, things can change very quickly. What's the phrase, "we're only 4 meals from anarchy"? It seems very likely that we are entering the period of the end of cheap oil, and cheap fossil fuels in general. Given that our civilization is built on fossil fuels, it doesn't take too much imagination to see that there are some very big problems coming (e.g. see:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Colum...1578885,00.html

)

Peter.

i got as far as this:

"Are global oil supplies about to peak? Are they, in other words, about to reach their maximum and then go into decline? There is a simple answer to this question: no one has the faintest idea."

well he immediately gets a thumbs down from me.

his simple answer is appallingly innacurate.

two huge names:

colin cambell

matt simmons

both have overseen extensive research in recent years. both have a lifetime of energy idustry experience to call upon. cambell has worked as a geologist for BIG OIL and simmons heads a leading energy investment banker.

no one has the faintest idea is totally unfair. infact, at best we have a very credible educated guess, at worst, an imminent collapse of everything we hold dear to our so called modern way of life.

Edited by Losing Faith

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I like this thread, its a bit like the other one RJG18 started except it made predictions, this one is rubbishing the predictions.

I would just refer the honorable ladies and gentlemen to comments made previously.

The future doesn't spring forth in a straight line like we expect. It sckews off at right angles from unexpected events or breakthroughs.

In the 1960's we were being told we would all go to work on hovercrafts by the year 2000.

In Star Trek, all the sets and ideas were projected images of 1960's hopes and fashions. They used to comunicate by radio for heaven's sake. We have developed the swooshing doors and the flip fones but not the teletransporter whatsit.

No one envisaged the internet, yet it has changed us all dramatically. Everyone in 1969 thought we would be living on Mars by now and yet we have gone backwards on this. Long term predictions are a waste of time in my opinion as the perimeters get wider, the predictions become sloppier.

We could spend the next 10 years worrying about global warming and get hit by an asteroid. I am not saying don't plan, I am just saying that we should question the ideas of experts going forward and doubt our own abilities to forecast in a similar way. Part of the fun is the not knowing part.

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i got as far as this:

"Are global oil supplies about to peak? Are they, in other words, about to reach their maximum and then go into decline? There is a simple answer to this question: no one has the faintest idea."

well he immediately gets a thumbs down from me.

his simple answer is appallingly innacurate.

two huge names:

colin cambell

matt simmons

both have overseen extensive research in recent years. both have a lifetime of energy idustry experience to call upon. cambell has worked as a geologist for BIG OIL and simmons heads a leading energy investment banker.

no one has the faintest idea is totally unfair. infact, at best we have a very credible educated guess, at worst, an imminent collapse of everything we hold dear to our so called modern way of life.

You should have read further. He goes on to quote Simmons. He ends with:

The bottom line," Hirsch says, "is that no one knows with certainty when world oil production will reach a peak, but geologists have no doubt that it will happen." Our hopes of a soft landing rest on just two propositions: that the oil producers' figures are correct, and that governments act before they have to. I hope that reassures you.

With the implication that you shouldn't be. Monbiot's one of the good guys (if you believe that global warming, limits to growth, peak oil are important things). As we learn from this and the associated thread, it's better to write a more balanced piece, otherwise you get tarred as a nutter,

Peter.

Edited by Blue Peter

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Me, I see most things regarding people as pretty simple.

Basically down to are you a "glass half full" or "glass half empty" type?

Whichever you are it's very hard to become the other, no matter how much research, thought and analysis etc. you undertake.

The problem is that, as often evidenced by this site, each type finds it hard to "get inside the head" of the other.

If we were all of one type though, the world would probably not function.

Imho.

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I like this thread, its a bit like the other one RJG18 started except it made predictions, this one is rubbishing the predictions.

I would just refer the honorable ladies and gentlemen to comments made previously.

The future doesn't spring forth in a straight line like we expect. It sckews off at right angles from unexpected events or breakthroughs.

In the 1960's we were being told we would all go to work on hovercrafts by the year 2000.

In Star Trek, all the sets and ideas were projected images of 1960's hopes and fashions. They used to comunicate by radio for heaven's sake. We have developed the swooshing doors and the flip fones but not the teletransporter whatsit.

No one envisaged the internet, yet it has changed us all dramatically. Everyone in 1969 thought we would be living on Mars by now and yet we have gone backwards on this. Long term predictions are a waste of time in my opinion as the perimeters get wider, the predictions become sloppier.

We could spend the next 10 years worrying about global warming and get hit by an asteroid. I am not saying don't plan, I am just saying that we should question the ideas of experts going forward and doubt our own abilities to forecast in a similar way. Part of the fun is the not knowing part.

Good point, there is a well-known analogy between the flow of human history and behavoiur of complex

dynamic systems: there are time windows of a relative stability where the development is more or less linear, however, there are periods of serious instability as well with multiple bifurcation points which are impossible to predict and foresee. Development of nanotechnology is probably the next big thing a full extend of which we can hardly grasp at the moment for example. It can potentially blow any prediction based on current state of affairs in economics/politics.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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