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frenchy

Could A Yes To Av Bring Us Our Hpc?

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Is it just me or do you guys think that if the UK vote yes to AV on May 5th then the Libdem would call for an end of the coalition and a GE would follow, ending in a LibLab coalition? I am increasingly skeptical about the prospect of a HPC before the next GE, so the sooner the GE comes the better...

Your thoughts?

Edited by frenchy

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Is it just me or do you guys think that if the UK vote yes to AV on May 5th then the Libdem would call for an end of the coalition and a GE would follow, ending in a LibLab coalition? I am increasingly skeptical about the prospect of a HPC before the next GE, so the sooner the GE comes the better...

Your thoughts?

A 'No' vote on AV puts the LibDems in a pretty awful position. After that they have no reason to be in the coalition, but the fear of electoral wipeout in a general election. So the conservatives can basically ignore anything they say - what are they going to do? I think there is a fair chance of an election following soon after a 'No' vote, with Cameron hoping to get a full majority on the back of a lib dem meltdown, before Labour has really recovered.

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you on drugs? libdems have a contract to form the coalition until 2015, they can't break it that easily - real world vs labour desperation

house prices are crashing anyway now - if you bring back labour they will prop up the market using the blood of your grandchildren

and to boot, the tories will probably win the 2015 election with or without AV

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Is it just me or do you guys think that if the UK vote yes to AV on May 5th then the Libdem would call for an end of the coalition and a GE would follow, ending in a LibLab coalition? I am increasingly skeptical about the prospect of a HPC before the next GE, so the sooner the GE comes the better...

Your thoughts?

Eh?

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you on drugs? libdems have a contract to form the coalition until 2015, they can't break it that easily - real world vs labour desperation

house prices are crashing anyway now - if you bring back labour they will prop up the market using the blood of your grandchildren

and to boot, the tories will probably win the 2015 election with or without AV

You are misinterpreting my post, I don't want to bring back labour, I want a GE. Prices aren't exactly crashing where I live (South West), not that I have noticed anyway. With YES to AV I can't see how in the future there could be an outright majority for Tories or Labour so it is either LibLab or ToryLib. Having said that I would quite like Labour to come back and finish what they started. You are very much mistaken in thinking that Labour would resume propping everything up (not just HP), if Labour return they would do what the market would tell them to do and it would get ugly real quick. Why do you think the pound rallied quite a lot when Labour lost the last GE?

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Is it just me or do you guys think that if the UK vote yes to AV on May 5th then the Libdem would call for an end of the coalition and a GE would follow, ending in a LibLab coalition? I am increasingly skeptical about the prospect of a HPC before the next GE, so the sooner the GE comes the better...

Your thoughts?

Next GE labour are in on a landlide and they'll print into oblivion trying to prop up the banks/public sector/HPI.

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A 'No' vote on AV puts the LibDems in a pretty awful position. After that they have no reason to be in the coalition, but the fear of electoral wipeout in a general election. So the conservatives can basically ignore anything they say - what are they going to do? I think there is a fair chance of an election following soon after a 'No' vote, with Cameron hoping to get a full majority on the back of a lib dem meltdown, before Labour has really recovered.

I didn't think of it that way, don't you think the Libdem would want to remain "in power" for as long as possible? Afterall it is the only thing they have to put on their CV!

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you on drugs? libdems have a contract to form the coalition until 2015, they can't break it that easily - real world vs labour desperation

If enough LibDem MPs start voting against the coalition, then the coalition is over. If Cameron simply sacks all the LibDem cabinet ministers, the coalition is over.

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If enough LibDem MPs start voting against the coalition, then the coalition is over. If Cameron simply sacks all the LibDem cabinet ministers, the coalition is over.

Agree - all it needs is for the government to lose a vote of no-confidence in the Commons (assuming enough rebel Lib Dems vote against the government), and they have to call an election. Regardless of any so-called 5-year contract.

It's not beyond possibility for right-wing Conservative Mps to abstain in a no-confidence vote, if they want to wreck the coalition.

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As for the answer to the question, we are already getting a HPC in parts of the UK. Unfortunately much of London and the SE will escape this. Hard to tell what will happen in the SW.

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As for the answer to the question, we are already getting a HPC in parts of the UK. Unfortunately much of London and the SE will escape this. Hard to tell what will happen in the SW.

Yeah, right.

What planet are you on.

At some point, hopefully soon, London house prices will collapse. Those prices that went up the most, will come down the most.

It's not rocket science, it's simple arithmetic.

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A 'No' vote on AV puts the LibDems in a pretty awful position. After that they have no reason to be in the coalition, but the fear of electoral wipeout in a general election. So the conservatives can basically ignore anything they say - what are they going to do? I think there is a fair chance of an election following soon after a 'No' vote, with Cameron hoping to get a full majority on the back of a lib dem meltdown, before Labour has really recovered.

This would be a miscalculation by Cameron. Unfortunately or otherwise most of the distaste for Labour was attached to Brown. In fact I'd say the current position for Labour is somewhat the opposite of the Conservatives in 1997 - at that point the public still liked the ex-leader (John Major), but hated the party. This time they hate the ex-leader and aren't so in dislike of Labour.

I'm not sure where Cameron sits with the public, but there does seem to have been a lot of anti-conservative galvanisation already.

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You are misinterpreting my post, I don't want to bring back labour, I want a GE. Prices aren't exactly crashing where I live (South West), not that I have noticed anyway. With YES to AV I can't see how in the future there could be an outright majority for Tories or Labour so it is either LibLab or ToryLib. Having said that I would quite like Labour to come back and finish what they started. You are very much mistaken in thinking that Labour would resume propping everything up (not just HP), if Labour return they would do what the market would tell them to do and it would get ugly real quick. Why do you think the pound rallied quite a lot when Labour lost the last GE?

Why on earth do you think Labour would suddenly become sensible and not repeat their past idiocies if they were to get back into power now? If they were to suddenly start being (relatively) sensible then they'd get all the criticism the coalition is currently getting, although probably in slightly different areas. The coaltion has been a predictable disappointment but Labour returning would be a complete and utter disaster, for house prices and everything else. Look for hideously expensive schemes to "help" people pay their mortgages and "help" people get on the housing ladder, far more so than anything the current bunch of fools would come up with.

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Agree - all it needs is for the government to lose a vote of no-confidence in the Commons (assuming enough rebel Lib Dems vote against the government), and they have to call an election. Regardless of any so-called 5-year contract.

It's not beyond possibility for right-wing Conservative Mps to abstain in a no-confidence vote, if they want to wreck the coalition.

More than half of Libdems would have to rebel, which ain't going to happen. The Parliamentary party is not the same demographic as the average Libdem voter, I imagine many (in the P.P.) feel more at home with the blues than the reds.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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I didn't think of it that way, don't you think the Libdem would want to remain "in power" for as long as possible? Afterall it is the only thing they have to put on their CV!

Depends. If Cameron thinks he can win a GE on his own now, he would be better off dumping them. After all, in 3-4 years, he'll be less of a new face, and we may well have had years of very nasty cuts. He can force the issue by making life intolerable.

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Next GE labour are in on a landlide and they'll print into oblivion trying to prop up the banks/public sector/HPI.

I am also certain this is the case. The public (nearly 50% of whom now depend on the state) just can't tolerate cuts, turkeys rarely vote for Christmas etc.

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You are misinterpreting my post, I don't want to bring back labour, I want a GE. Prices aren't exactly crashing where I live (South West), not that I have noticed anyway. With YES to AV I can't see how in the future there could be an outright majority for Tories or Labour so it is either LibLab or ToryLib. Having said that I would quite like Labour to come back and finish what they started. You are very much mistaken in thinking that Labour would resume propping everything up (not just HP), if Labour return they would do what the market would tell them to do and it would get ugly real quick. Why do you think the pound rallied quite a lot when Labour lost the last GE?

thing is I don't want economic anihilation and neither I suspect do the electorate

houses would be more expensive against available money anyway in such circumstances

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If enough LibDem MPs start voting against the coalition, then the coalition is over. If Cameron simply sacks all the LibDem cabinet ministers, the coalition is over.

but they won't - as half of the libdems are right leaniong and this still gives the coalition a majority in parliamnent

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I am also certain this is the case. The public (nearly 50% of whom now depend on the state) just can't tolerate cuts, turkeys rarely vote for Christmas etc.

Those bits of the public which aren't turkeys also want things like the NHS to stay as they are.

Alright, we on here know that they can't have it due to the economics of the whole thing, but when was the last time anyone did anything because of economics?

Morality and whim largely decide politics and voting.

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Next GE labour are in on a landlide and they'll print into oblivion trying to prop up the banks/public sector/HPI.

Prepared to bet real money, that Labour are consigned to oblivion at the next GE.

Thatcher was always unpopular between elections, but common sense and the fear of what Liebour, in the form of Neil Kinnock, would take out of your pay packet ensured that common sense prevailed.

As for the Lump/Dums they are committed to the coalition agreement till 2015 (I think). However one more stupid remark by Vince Cable and even Cameron will pluck up courage to fire him, so who knows?

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Prepared to bet real money, that Labour are consigned to oblivion at the next GE.

Thatcher was always unpopular between elections, but common sense and the fear of what Liebour, in the form of Neil Kinnock, would take out of your pay packet ensured that common sense prevailed.

As for the Lump/Dums they are committed to the coalition agreement till 2015 (I think). However one more stupid remark by Vince Cable and even Cameron will pluck up courage to fire him, so who knows?

This was back when the public sector was smaller than the prive sector tho, right?

Right now people are worried about what the torilition are going to take out of their pay packet (and give to banksters) because they all work for the council, DWP or NHS.

Gotta remember that labour got voted out just barely, with the worst prime minister in modern history (who had just called a granny names in public.) Another poster has said that the average voter hasn't got much issue with labour - they've proved they are competent on the economy* but will look after the social stuff most people want such as the NHS.

* I know, I know but right now the bankers need shelving and people want the NHS to carry on as it has done and theres no chance of the tories looking after either of those things in the popular mind.

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Yeah, right.

What planet are you on.

At some point, hopefully soon, London house prices will collapse. Those prices that went up the most, will come down the most.

It's not rocket science, it's simple arithmetic.

Plenty of threads here have discussed the London situation. I live here, and rent - I would love to see reasonable prices, although I'm now getting to an age where I have no chance of buying a home - a lack of regular work etc. However, imo a HPC in London isn't going to happen. Some reasons are well known - the number of foreigners who invest here, highly paid businessmen, bankers, entertainers etc, all the jobs here that require houses filled to the rafters with migrant workers. Plus, any government would pull out even more QE to keep the ball rolling in the capital. I would love to be wrong on this one, but I can't see it happening. Years of stagnation yes (and house prices falling in the rest of the country). A HPC in London? Just can't see it. But, we'll see. It's happening already elsewhere, so hope springs eternal.

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This was back when the public sector was smaller than the prive sector tho, right?

Right now people are worried about what the torilition are going to take out of their pay packet (and give to banksters) because they all work for the council, DWP or NHS.

Gotta remember that labour got voted out just barely, with the worst prime minister in modern history (who had just called a granny names in public.) Another poster has said that the average voter hasn't got much issue with labour - they've proved they are competent on the economy* but will look after the social stuff most people want such as the NHS.

* I know, I know but right now the bankers need shelving and people want the NHS to carry on as it has done and theres no chance of the tories looking after either of those things in the popular mind.

The Tories are "banking" on showing they are the party of economic competence. If however, within a short time they've presided over a slump in the economy, a House Price Crash*, and enormous youth unemployment, then they will forfeit this reputation.

We know that a lot of what is happening now (and for the next few years) is the consequence of the previous administration. But the current government will be held to account. Much as the Labour government of 74-79 had to cope with the after-effects of the Tory Barber boom, and got saddled with "Labour led us to an IMF bailout"

* A lot of the electorate will see falling house prices as a bad thing.

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We know that a lot of what is happening now (and for the next few years) is the consequence of the previous administration. But the current government will be held to account. Much as the Labour government of 74-79 had to cope with the after-effects of the Tory Barber boom, quadrupling of oil prices, industrial chaos brought about by massed ranks of trade unions (power workers and miners) and got saddled with "Labour led us to an IMF bailout"

Corrected (history) for you.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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