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The Staggering Costs Of Not Buying European

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I have been watching the travails of the Eurofighter program for some time and have found some interesting facts which will have an impact on the bottom line of Britains and the EUs bottom line. The numbers are truly staggering when you add up total expenditure on US made weapons.

From a website:

Like the rest posting here I am a curious amateur - albeit with a PhD in engineering.

There are a few big misconceptions in the posts here. So it's worth taking some time to set the record straight about the Eurofighter which is, after the Raptor, the most effective air superiority fighter available today, and likely for the next one or two decades. Here are some points of fact and speculation, you decide which is which!

First thing. All should note is there is no such thing as a modern jet that 'flies in' on time, and on budget. For that matter, every major defense procurement, since the 1960s, has run over its' budget, leading to 'shock and horror' stories in the press, worse still the problems have led to poor political decisions being made, like Britain's cancellation of the TSR2 program and Canada's cancellation of the Arrow. In return, we all got General Dynamics F111 rammed down our throats as its' costs escalated wildly, and performance proved mediocre at best. If the British Labor government had stuck with TSR2 it would have transformed Britain's aerospace industry.

Second thing. The unit cost of any fighter is directly related to the number of airplanes that are bought. America's aging teens like the Eagle are relatively cheap because the USA managed to undermine the West's ability to design, build, and most importantly sell, air defense and ground attack aircraft. Read Noam Chomsky, an acknowledged genius, if you want to understand the 'mind' of Washington. This has resulted in a totally hegemonic position with regard to sales of the Teens which were fine aircraft, in their day. So ask yourself, if India accepts the offer to join the Eurofighter consortium, and buys several hundred Tranche 3 aircraft what will happen to the price bearing in mind that Japan, Norway, and many others are starting to balk at the cost of the F-35, which is now estimated to cost $168mln, less than half way through the flight testing program. And remember, the congressional report on the F-22 Raptor estimated it had cost $338mln for each plane delivered to the USAF. Here is the link: scroll down to unit cost.

http://en.wikipedia....aptor/Archive_2

It was stated in congress that Raptor had a mean time between critical maintenance of 0.6 hours…… that means half your fleet is on the ground during a war with Pakistan! It is entirely reasonable to assume the F-35 will cost more than $200mln per plane, yet the verdict on it's performance is startling: poor reliability, single engine, and limited internal weapons bay. Compare that with Eurofighter which has proved reliability, outstanding maneuverability at supersonic speed (which reportedly betters the Raptor), and a rugged high load weapons hard points. It's high wing area means it has low unit wing load (good for fatigue) and lots of space, as we see here.

http://en.wikipedia....lisAFB-2008.jpg

This means the unit cost, by munition weight, is frankly fantastic. And take a look at the recent demonstrations of the FGR4 variant at a recent airshow. Fully loaded, it outperforms the F-35 when fully loaded (i.e. external weapons and no stealth).

Third thing. Eurofighter's avionics and 'carefree look and shoot' are widely regarded as second only to Raptor. As for F-35 who knows how it performs, it's so late and there is still more development needed. Current estimates for F-35 delivery are around 2018, and many say it will not be delivered to foreign nations until 2020 - assuming it takes 2-4 years to fully integrate into India's defense then you will be defended by inferior technology for some 13 years to come. It would make more sense to buy, and share development, of Eurofighter and then decide on whether to transition to F-35, if it ever reaches mass production, which means low unit cost. I suspect Norway and Canada will balk at the escalating costs, at which point all bets are off, and India will be left with an overpriced legacy of the cold war era.

Fourth thing. Others are right to point out the slow development of a ground attack Eurofighter. However, the Royal Air Force have deployed the FGR4 variant, and I would imagine EADS are offering joint development of the A2G variants. India's massive intellectual capabilities combined with Europe's un-matched technical brilliance will create synergies that accelerate it's development. BTW - Americans who think Europe's science lags should go to wikipedia and count the number of Nobel Prizes awarded to ALL of europe and compare with the USA (after extracting the ones lured to the USA from Europe!) The nascent ability in Europe, combined with India's development led demand will be a force majeure for defense procurement. And note: there is now agreement to continue Eurofighters development. India will be buying Tranche 3 with AESA and Meteor. That will mean Eurofighter is state of the art with respect to A2A. And, also note that the low observability of Eurofighter can be improved in the same way that Boeing and LM are tinkering with the F-teens.

Fifth thing. I have touched on the cost and politics associated with major defense procurements. This is probably the most important factor in any decisions made by India, Canada, Norway, Japan, Qatar, et al. If you look at the original projected sales for the F-22 and F-35 it amounts to more than three trillion dollars. Read that cost again and think about it. US defense, and big US corporations supplying parts and services, are being handed a totally hegemonic position. And to cement the deal, Boeing and Lockheed Martin were clever. They made sure nearly all 52 States were included in the development program. That means lobbyists could corrupt the whole of the Senate and Congress, making it virtually impossible to control spending and costs. It took a spending crisis, a debt crisis, and bi-partisan action by Republican Mr. Gates to finally make a decision to stop the Raptor program. Thank god he did - otherwise the partner nations were on the hook to buy Raptors at around $300mln a plane. You can get three Eurofighters with twice the air availability for that (i.e. 1 = 5!)

Sixth thing. If you what to understand how the right-wing of Republican America thinks, then learn about the views of the Project for The New American Century (google PNAC): you will be shocked at the lack of respect for India, Europe and basically every one else. These views are driven by what some have called the Manifest Destiny of America, it's taught in schools, and pervades life here. It's origin was during the early settlers days when immigrants had to get to grips with the slaughter of the native indians. How could you essentially murder people and steal their land? The only way of being able to digest the genocide without self hatred was to tell people that it was god's will, and that white immigrants were superior beings whose manifest destiny was to own the first promise land - America. These views were spread by the Christian churches and anyone who travels the Deep South and Mid West will know there are plenty of souls here who see the country in a very strange light. I should add they are a minority, but there is a pervasive 'light of self' here in the USA which would worry others.

http://www.newamericancentury.org/

Thankfully the far right of america is balanced by the left, and most of the americans I know are decent, generous and kind people. However, Corporations own and run american politics and something as juicy and profitable as defense procurement is firmly in the hands of the right. There is a very strong case for India to therefore look elsewhere for its defense. The truth in this is testified by the fact that Raptor and Lightning were only offered to Europe and India without the codes to unlock the software. That means the critical defense system in you armory could literally be switched off if your goals were not aligned with Americas. Scary!

Finally. I think the world knows the current financial crisis was borne on Wall St. To understand the scale of corruption watch the two films Inside Job, and Client Number 9. However, these only show the tip of the iceberg. If you have been watching closely you will realize that Wall Street started securitizing and collateralizing their debts after the crash on Wall St in 2001. There is now clear evidence this was done to ensure that he CDOs. and CMOs could be sold to overseas investors. Testimony by Hayman Capital suggests the goal was to ensure that US toxic debts were sold to Europe, the Middle East and Asia to transfer the risk created by low interest rates under Greenspan. The Federal Reserve knew these low rates would create a housing bubble and did nothing to stop it. Why? It was because the Fed knew much of the debt could be securitized and sold to India, Germany, etc. SOme estimate around 2 trillion dollars was sold overseas largely via the City of London which boomed during the 2000s. The boom was led by investment bankers all complicit in selling worthless paper. India bought it too - so do you want to bend over and take some more?

Edited by bpw

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"India's massive intellectual capabilities combined with Europe's un-matched technical brilliance..."

Sorry, I nearly suffocated on the BS at that point and had to stop reading. Is this how the EU commission does its guerrilla marketing? Or do all engineering phd's write piss poor sales brochures on the net as a hobby?

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Sounds like fighting the current war with weapons designed for the last war to me.

Yep. Unmanned flying vehicles are the future, like it or not.

MQ-1 Predator

RQ-4 Global Hawk

IAI Harpy

BZK-005

And the fully autonomous

X-37B space plane

etc...

In vehicle pilots, in theatre warfare, are going to the history books.

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whats this got to do with houses?

you should be over on www.planepricecrash.co.uk

Bad news for those that bought near air bases.

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All should note is there is no such thing as a modern jet that 'flies in' on time, and on budget.

So long as you keep giving contracts to the same companies whose products came in late and over budget last time, they'll keep coming in late and over budget. They have no incentive to improve when governments keep throwing money at them, and 'cost plus' contracts give them every incentive to push up costs in order to push up profits.

Edited by MarkG

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whats this got to do with houses?

you should be over on www.planepricecrash.co.uk

Cleverly 'masked' on front page with 'stealth' heading?

Anyway, it's been a long term tradition on HPC for 'relaxed' but popular bank holiday 'topics' to stay on front page.

Nothing to do with houseprices either

Newer Mods may be over-zealous

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ALL PLEASE NOTE:

the heading is no longer house prices alone, it says house prices AND economy. The point of my post is totally on point. The cost of defense is staggering and buying european in the case of air defense will have a positive effect on the bottom like of EADS participants. In reality the supply chain spreads over most of the EU. Why spend 500 billion on american goods when you can spend it on european arms. And don't point to BAEs collaboration on the F35 - its a small part of a very large pie.

Cleverly 'masked' on front page with 'stealth' heading?

Anyway, it's been a long term tradition on HPC for 'relaxed' but popular bank holiday 'topics' to stay on front page.

Nothing to do with houseprices either

Newer Mods may be over-zealous

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ALL PLEASE NOTE:

the heading is no longer house prices alone, it says house prices AND economy. The point of my post is totally on point. The cost of defense is staggering and buying european in the case of air defense will have a positive effect on the bottom like of EADS participants. In reality the supply chain spreads over most of the EU. Why spend 500 billion on american goods when you can spend it on european arms. And don't point to BAEs collaboration on the F35 - its a small part of a very large pie.

The HP bubble and the need for a crash is all about the economy so the need for an HPC is defo linked to the economy.

The EU is a different matter - it's a career politician serving parasite which has nothing to do with anything else.

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So long as you keep giving contracts to the same companies whose products came in late and over budget last time, they'll keep coming in late and over budget. They have no incentive to improve when governments keep throwing money at them, and 'cost plus' contracts give them every incentive to push up costs in order to push up profits.

Undoubtedly the contracts could be more stringent, but I think you are missing the fact that most defence contracts are at the cutting edge of technology. The uncertainty adds to the cost.

Most of the cost is the upfront R&D before anything is ready to manufacture (not to mention savings of scale...).

Plus, due to consolidation in the UK defence industry, there is only one big contractor so the competition is, er, thin.

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On the radio recently one news commentator described the unmanned flying vehicles as undermanned flying vehicles.

I imagine they're always on the look out for a jobsworths job opportunity.

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The anti EU comments here are irrelevant. The issue is the vast amount of money spent on defense and the effect of sending most of the 'thought process' overseas. I can understand the average person being so uninformed they don't see the issue but the people here should at the very least have an inkling of how the real world works. Why do you think Russia with a GDP a small fraction of the EU is investing so heavily in its 5th generation fighter program? its not about defense its about money and technology leveraging. If you can figure out how to make Eurofighter fly (it has 70 computers on board and millions of lines of code) you can generate a thousand subsidiary ideas that underpin a whole range of new technologies. Here in the USA I am constantly reminded of the need to meet export compliance requirements which are designed to prevent a flow of intellectual capital overseas. The US understands its future is dependent on a knowledge based economy and not the filth that run Wall Street and the City of London.

On the radio recently one news commentator described the unmanned flying vehicles as undermanned flying vehicles.

I imagine they're always on the look out for a jobsworths job opportunity.

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_W_

you name is as short as your mind is narrow. Which part do you object to? And want to support it with some facts,,,,, this will be fun.

"India's massive intellectual capabilities combined with Europe's un-matched technical brilliance..."

Sorry, I nearly suffocated on the BS at that point and had to stop reading. Is this how the EU commission does its guerrilla marketing? Or do all engineering phd's write piss poor sales brochures on the net as a hobby?

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Precisely, if BAE were not the lacky of the US defense industry they could earn what a Boeing or LM engineer would earn - salary for mid career engineer with masters around $110k. And a house near Seattle costs and looks like this:

Link

Or perhaps you would rather work in the City swindling investors?

Brilliant, if more people earned BAE Systems salaries then we would have a HPC for sure!!!

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Precisely, if BAE were not the lacky of the US defense industry they could earn what a Boeing or LM engineer would earn - salary for mid career engineer with masters around $110k. And a house near Seattle costs and looks like this:

Link

Or perhaps you would rather work in the City swindling investors?

Salaries for engineers in the UK are poor whatever industry you work in.

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Thats if you are staff - Britain is rather odd in that a large percentage of its good engineers work under single man companies (IR35). With rates around 50-100gbp/hr it's not a bad whack. The plods all stay in staff roles to ensure they can get promoted to the glorious position of mid-level manager with an pension (that's invested until its all gone), an office with a window, and the keys to a Ford Mondeo.

An unexpected benefit of being contract is it opens up a lot of opportunity to work overseas. The USA currently has a shortage of engineers with unemployment rates of 2% if you have a PhD and around 4% if you have a good degree.

Here, most of the contractors I know earn $200k, and up, which is a nice life...... so, don't be disheartened, leave the UK and have fun like i do campaigning. I hope for a better Britain which makes a living from manufacturing and knowledge, like Germany, instead of swindling investors in the middle and far east.

Salaries for engineers in the UK are poor whatever industry you work in.

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Does BAE operate in the UK? Does it have British employees? Will they in turn have a mortgage?

Massive compound here adjacent to Dhahran which employs loads of Brits. BAE service the Tornado fleet and 72 Eurofighters which will replace them.

Big money earner thats for sure and many years to come. Much of that money both corporate and personal earnings filters back to the UK.

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Thats if you are staff - Britain is rather odd in that a large percentage of its good engineers work under single man companies (IR35). With rates around 50-100gbp/hr it's not a bad whack. The plods all stay in staff roles to ensure they can get promoted to the glorious position of mid-level manager with an pension (that's invested until its all gone), an office with a window, and the keys to a Ford Mondeo.

An unexpected benefit of being contract is it opens up a lot of opportunity to work overseas. The USA currently has a shortage of engineers with unemployment rates of 2% if you have a PhD and around 4% if you have a good degree.

Here, most of the contractors I know earn $200k, and up, which is a nice life...... so, don't be disheartened, leave the UK and have fun like i do campaigning. I hope for a better Britain which makes a living from manufacturing and knowledge, like Germany, instead of swindling investors in the middle and far east.

Yes I heard that private contractors are rather looked down on in the US and they pay their regular salaried staff well compared to them. At BAE though I would say its only 5% private contractors over all and its not the salaried staff who are the 'plods' often its the other way around. Often the 'coming back or coming in' as a contractor on £35-£50 per hour upwards is very much based on who you know and who you suck up to. You can't just go from a salaried employee to being a contractor, they just won't let most people do it.

A salaried engineer at BAE (design engineer, avionics, software etc.) would expect to earn arounf £30K 10 years into their career. Around that time they may get some management responsibility and move up to about £35K and finish at about £45 when they are retirement age. This is North-West England I am talking about (Preston BAE sites) but I believe the salary scales are the same nationwide. They are actually good salaries for Preston and lots of people want to work there (they pay secretaries, admin staff and PAs similar to engineers), but that doesn't explain why an average 3 bed semi is an decent area here is still £170-£200K

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I am amazed that anyone would accept a staff salary of 35k after ten years working. You have to wonder if these people are basically stupid. Or it affirms what a disgusting shit-hole the UK is for engineers. I was earning 100k GBP in 1998 working as an independent contractor in oil and gas. I earn a lot more now. As for how contractors are treated, the USA and UK are similar in that staff are human, and it's human nature to treat others badly if it gives them a feeling of superiority. That means you'll find highly skilled contractors forced to work in cubes while staff secretaries get offices with windows. It does make you wonder about humanity, but that's life.

Yes I heard that private contractors are rather looked down on in the US and they pay their regular salaried staff well compared to them. At BAE though I would say its only 5% private contractors over all and its not the salaried staff who are the 'plods' often its the other way around. Often the 'coming back or coming in' as a contractor on £35-£50 per hour upwards is very much based on who you know and who you suck up to. You can't just go from a salaried employee to being a contractor, they just won't let most people do it.

A salaried engineer at BAE (design engineer, avionics, software etc.) would expect to earn arounf £30K 10 years into their career. Around that time they may get some management responsibility and move up to about £35K and finish at about £45 when they are retirement age. This is North-West England I am talking about (Preston BAE sites) but I believe the salary scales are the same nationwide. They are actually good salaries for Preston and lots of people want to work there (they pay secretaries, admin staff and PAs similar to engineers), but that doesn't explain why an average 3 bed semi is an decent area here is still £170-£200K

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I am amazed that anyone would accept a staff salary of 35k after ten years working. You have to wonder if these people are basically stupid. Or it affirms what a disgusting shit-hole the UK is for engineers. I was earning 100k GBP in 1998 working as an independent contractor in oil and gas. I earn a lot more now. As for how contractors are treated, the USA and UK are similar in that staff are human, and it's human nature to treat others badly if it gives them a feeling of superiority. That means you'll find highly skilled contractors forced to work in cubes while staff secretaries get offices with windows. It does make you wonder about humanity, but that's life.

Why whould anyone earning £100k+ for over 13 years be on HPC forum?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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