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The Upside Of Peak Oil

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A peak oil crisis, or even a very large rise in the price of oil products, will cause the transportation of goods over long distances to become uneconomic.

At present china and a large number of other countries can produce goods and foods far cheaper than we can in the UK prompting a large decline in farming and manufacturing.

As oil becomes more expensive it has an identical effect on production costs accross developing and developed countries (ie China and UK), but the costs within the UK of goods imported over a long distance will increase.

Could the increased transport costs over long distances cause the UK workers (particularly manufacturing and farming) to compete in their own market again? Will the rising transport costs lead to a situation where the higher labour costs in the UK can be balanced against the cost of internation transport?

Just got to thinking about this over a nice big juicy Argentinian steak.

I can see why bananas aren't grown in Somerset, but we have plenty of beef walking around the hills, so does the beef really need to come all the way from South America?

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A peak oil crisis, or even a very large rise in the price of oil products, will cause the transportation of goods over long distances to become uneconomic.

No way!

Ocean shipping is so damn cheap per unit that no peak oil could threaten chinese manufactured products. Not even beef.

According to my friend a metric ton of cargo shipped from Vietnam to Hamburg costed him 41 pounds, Thats 4p/kg.

Moreover, ships can go on coal. And Peak Coal is no sooner than 2050!

Edited by gabor

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I don’t know how long it takes to grow a cow – but I would expect inflated prices until they bread a suitable size heard. Wade through extra red tape designed to protect to public from ecoli /foot and mouth and probably the chicken flu – but is early designed to waste time and money and increase taxes, pay your staff a minimum wage of 55 pounds an hour – who will all be off sick on full pay most the time. A little peace of paper saying the vet had inspected them was lost so the entire heard would be destroyed.

And the end of all this you may sell some but only if it were rare bread and you would still be twice the cost. Infact the cows could walk from South America and it would still be cheaper!

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No way!

Ocean shipping is so damn cheap per unit that no peak oil could threaten chinese manufactured products. Not even beef.

According to my friend a metric ton of cargo shipped from Vietnam to Hamburg costed him 41 pounds, Thats 4p/kg.

Moreover, ships can go on coal. And Peak Coal is no sooner than 2050!

I thought most freighters and tankers were diesel powered ?

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The only way to improve our competitive front with regard to manufacturing and farming is to either increase the regulation from foriegn imports i.e. free-range UK eggs have to meet our guidelines (something like max 400 birds per acre) whereas other country import "free-range" but their regs state 1000 birds per acre.

So our free range can't be competitive with imported ones.

or to de-regulate our rules. Or at the very least allow a decent amount of interpretation.

A bit of common sense in this country wouldn't go amiss.

As an example: I'm not saying exactly where but I am currently near to a little town in Wales. The centre is covered in double yellow lines. It came to my attention that nobody took a blind bit of notice and parked where every they wanted.

I asked a shopkeeper about it. Oh yes says he, they put the lines down but then there is nowhere to park (this is very true).

So what about the traffic wardens and police? says I.

Oh they come about once a year but let us know in advance so we can all put the cars somewhere else.

It made a refreshing change!

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I thought most freighters and tankers were diesel powered ?

Yes they are all. And fuel costs are about 70% of their total expenditure. But if oil happened to become really scarce, there would be no reason why steam ships could not return.

Nuclear and coal are the energy sources of the 21st century.

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I've seen workable futuristic designs for wind and solar powered freighters. (Not cost efficient while oil is cheap.)

Well, wind is obviously out of question, since they were replaced by steam engines in the 19th century. And steam combustion has developed a lot in efficiency since then.

Solar ships... hmm I dont know.

Basically the slower the ship is, the more you need of it to supply the same shipping capacity over time. Hence your capital expenditure skyrockets.

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No way!

Ocean shipping is so damn cheap per unit that no peak oil could threaten chinese manufactured products. Not even beef.

According to my friend a metric ton of cargo shipped from Vietnam to Hamburg costed him 41 pounds, Thats 4p/kg.

Moreover, ships can go on coal. And Peak Coal is no sooner than 2050!

fair comment - but what about the road haulage element? Is it possible that house prices in Hull, Milford Haven, Southampton, Liverpool, Avonmouth and Greenock will skyrocket as they become the only places in the country where the fruits of the whole world remain widely available to the populace?

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Well, wind is obviously out of question, since they were replaced by steam engines in the 19th century

Certainly during the last oil shock there was some fairly serious work done on wind-powered freighters. They'd be slow and potentially unreliable compared to oil-fuelled ships, but I wouldn't say they're out of the question.

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A peak oil crisis, or even a very large rise in the price of oil products, will cause the transportation of goods Just got to thinking about this over a nice big juicy Argentinian steak.

I can see why bananas aren't grown in Somerset, but we have plenty of beef walking around the hills, so does the beef really need to come all the way from South America?

Because it is by far the best in the world!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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