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Trampa501

How Long Before Interest Rates Have To Rise?

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We were told that interest rates were likely to rise from April, but it seems this is no longer the case. Can interest rates be held down all year?

They can and will be held down indefinately, you won't see a rate rise till at least 2032. In fact you're more likely to see negative interest rates with more QE.

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Having attended one of the BOE's business briefings a couple of weeks ago, where an advisor to the MPC runs through all the stats, then a round table discussion happens about the state of business out there, it seems to me that it could well be months before they take action.

He affirmed they do not target one area of the market, e.g. being concerned about savers, also said there is a risk of deflation, and therefore the bank at the moment continue to hedge their bets.

No big secrets from this meeting, but certainly they are in no rush to raise despite the constant flow of short term news and directional pointers

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Having attended one of the BOE's business briefings a couple of weeks ago, where an advisor to the MPC runs through all the stats, then a round table discussion happens about the state of business out there, it seems to me that it could well be months before they take action.

He affirmed they do not target one area of the market, e.g. being concerned about savers, also said there is a risk of deflation, and therefore the bank at the moment continue to hedge their bets.

No big secrets from this meeting, but certainly they are in no rush to raise despite the constant flow of short term news and directional pointers

So why is the pound so strong? Anybody out there know?

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...."We were told"..... By whom or what?

Its Gordon Brown policy carried on by the Con/Libs. The new government doesnt want to be remembered in history as the 1 where house prices declined under its period of office. Hence keep IR low and have fewer repos.

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Didn't house prices fall through the floor in Japan?

What happened there?

house prices fell for 17 years in a row, had a brief rise around 4-5 years ago, but since has carried on falling.

house prices are half what they were 20 years ago.

and if you think that doesnt count as it is distorted by the super bubble in 1990 - prices today are currently reaching 1980's levels.

if you bought a property in 1980 the price would have barely moved, which kind of discounts that overcrowding and "lack of land" arguement which will keep house prices high.

you cant get more crowded than japan, and you cant get interest rates lower than japan, yet the housing market still collapsed.

Edited by mfp123

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Merv will remain vigilant until his hand is forced. Probably be Aug before we see a rise, but the timing might paradoxically be good for HPC.

I am seeing nothing but price falls, I am hoping that by the time the rate goes up, more and more sellers will be more acutely aware of falling prices and difficulty in shifting their overpriced sh!tholes.

If sentiment on prices is in the ditch, acknowledging that the rescue team are turning around will be a stake through the heart for many of those who havent managed to sell.

So I am suggesting it might mean we have a short fear stage swiftly followed by capitulation

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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house prices fell for 17 years in a row, had a brief rise around 4-5 years ago, but since has carried on falling.

house prices are half what they were 20 years ago.

What?

please elaborate.

Spiney

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What?

please elaborate.

Spiney

This is common knowledge and true. I

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/44/housing_bubble.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/2/111911/949&h=281&w=272&sz=8&tbnid=CTm8xY0HiMCxOM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=110&prev=/search%3Fq%3Djapan%2Bhouse%2Bprices%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=japan+house+prices&hl=en&usg=__DijoXJA1ANghVupRF67lzSph3Fs=&sa=X&ei=lDewTYX-AsiOswaI5ZzfCw&ved=0CEcQ9QEwBQ

think they are hoping we are in for a japan style slump. The only problem being that Japan is/was a boom economic power house with huge exports, motivated, highly educated work force.

Meanwhile, here in britain we have work shy chavs getting paid to go to school.

Somehow I can't see any similarity between us and Japan other than the low interest rates and the massive housing bubble.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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So why is the pound so strong? Anybody out there know?

Strong!!!! I've got a credit card statement here with 1.09 as the exchange rate with the euro, that isn't strong, that is Lira territory!

As to raising rates, doesn't matter in the slightest what the BoE say, it is down to the FED and ECB. When they start to make proper raises (ie back towards 5%+ then the BoE will follow.

Optobear

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What?

please elaborate.

Spiney

japan-bust1a.jpg

people will still trott out the oh but the population is rising, there is a lack of space and housing, interest rates are low and will stay low.

yes, well tell that to the people of japan and see what they say about it.

Edited by mfp123

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Strong!!!! I've got a credit card statement here with 1.09 as the exchange rate with the euro, that isn't strong, that is Lira territory!

As to raising rates, doesn't matter in the slightest what the BoE say, it is down to the FED and ECB. When they start to make proper raises (ie back towards 5%+ then the BoE will follow.

Optobear

I think you have hit the nail on the head. The UK is Americas puppet.

The question should be....when will the FED raise interest rates ?

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house prices fell for 17 years in a row, had a brief rise around 4-5 years ago, but since has carried on falling.

house prices are half what they were 20 years ago.

and if you think that doesnt count as it is distorted by the super bubble in 1990 - prices today are currently reaching 1980's levels.

if you bought a property in 1980 the price would have barely moved, which kind of discounts that overcrowding and "lack of land" arguement which will keep house prices high.

you cant get more crowded than japan, and you cant get interest rates lower than japan, yet the housing market still collapsed.

Please walk us through this. What are the parallels and differences between Japan and UK in house price fall terms?

Chanks! (just learnt that - a cross between 'thanks' and 'cheers'. Horrible, isn't it?)

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The only problem being that Japan is/was a boom economic power house with huge exports, motivated, highly educated work force.

Meanwhile, here in britain we have work shy chavs getting paid to go to school.

But why does that mean we won't get a Japanese style slump? How does it affect anything?

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Merv will remain vigilant until his hand is forced. Probably be Aug before we see a rise, but the timing might paradoxically be good for HPC.

But August what year? 2012/13 or more likely 2027?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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