The Knimbies who say No Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2911 Gross mortgage lending was an estimated £11.3 billion in March, a 21% rise from £9.3 billion in February and a 2% decline from £11.5 billion in March 2010, according to data published today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Gross lending for the first quarter of 2011 was therefore an estimated £30.1 billion, an 11% decline from the fourth quarter of 2010 (£33.9 billion) and a 1% increase from £29.7 billion in the first three months of 2010. Commenting on current market conditions, CML chief economist Bob Pannell said: “The housing market has emerged hesitantly from hibernation. Household finances are under a lot of pressure, and as a result demand for house purchase loans fell in the first three months of 2011. Lenders expect mortgage credit availability to improve this quarter, and this should help to underpin house purchase activity albeit at pretty low levels. “Remortgage demand, meanwhile, continues to firm, presumably linked to expectations of higher base rates. Remortgage approvals in February were the highest for more than two years. Stronger remortgage activity looks set to continue propping up overall lending.” Hmm, doesn't smell like recovery to me.. Edited April 20, 2011 by cheeznbreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2899 Yoy approvals -12%. Despite the beginning of last year being artificially low due to the stamp duty reintroduction in January. Edit: wrong report! Still good though. Edited April 20, 2011 by Pent Up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2911 Hmm, doesn't smell like recovery to me.. To be fair to the BBC, they (BBC News) went to great lengths to point out that it is, in fact, a decrease. The worm continues to turn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geezer466 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Never let a statistic get in the way of a good news story....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1zard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 But the headline only reading morons will all go off spouting that lending has recovered. Exactly what the structure of these articles are designed to achieve. big VI misleading headline, actual facts inbedded lower down into the piece = Sheeple proof that housing is fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juvenal Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) But the headline only reading morons will all go off spouting that lending has recovered. Exactly what the structure of these articles are designed to achieve. big VI misleading headline, actual facts inbedded lower down into the piece = Sheeple proof that housing is fine. Express Owner Richard Desmond owns a £500 million property and investment portfolio. Enough said.... http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/profile-of-publisher-richard-desmond-49730 Edited April 20, 2011 by juvenal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 But the headline only reading morons will all go off spouting that lending has recovered. Exactly what the structure of these articles are designed to achieve. big VI misleading headline, actual facts inbedded lower down into the piece = Sheeple proof that housing is fine. Not all bad news - might convince them to put their house on the (already oversupplied) market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) The Telegraph has weighed in with the sort of spin only they can do: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8462936/Mortgage-lending-jumps-21pc-but-sector-still-faces-challenges-says-CML.html and: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8462926/Mortgage-lending-rises-as-housing-market-emerges-hesitantly-from-hibernation.html Mortgage lending rises as housing market 'emerges hesitantly from hibernation' Mortgage lending increased by 21pc during March as both buyers and remortgaging returned to the market. Never ceases to amaze that the Torygraph can wring two near-identical articles from one set of facts, maybe the freelancers compete with each other and the best story makes the printed paper. No sign of Ms Butterworth though, will she submit her copy and make it a hat-trick? Edited April 20, 2011 by cheeznbreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2911 Hmm, doesn't smell like recovery to me.. Expect mortgage lending down 20% in May...unexpectedly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The Telegraph has weighed in with the sort of spin only they can do: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8462936/Mortgage-lending-jumps-21pc-but-sector-still-faces-challenges-says-CML.html and: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8462926/Mortgage-lending-rises-as-housing-market-emerges-hesitantly-from-hibernation.html Never ceases to amaze that the Torygraph can wring two near-identical articles from one set of facts, maybe the freelancers compete with each other and the best story makes the printed paper. No sign of Ms Butterworth though, will she submit her copy and make it a hat-trick? "Emerges hesitantly from hibernation" FFS ! The housing market, compared to a cute, sleepy polar bear popping it's head up to check the conditions, was forced back into it's warm, cosy ignorance as the arctic storm of continued economic turmoil smashed hailstones of reality right back into it's face. more like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Expect mortgage lending down 20% in May...unexpectedly. All the bank holidays you see - they're already coming out with the excuses for cr*p sales and falling prices over the next few weeks. FWIW EAs are weighing up the pros and cons of opening on those days: My link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 It is of course snowing in our seasonally adjusted essex at the mo. reality says 22C...stats say steady 0C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 It is of course snowing in our seasonally adjusted essex at the mo. reality says 22C...stats say steady 0C Ah, CML seems to quote the lending figures as non-seasonally adjusted (looking at the spreadsheet it seems that way) Approvals are S.A. rubbish though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 So let me get this right, this figure: Is only an estimate Is non-seasonally adjusted (and presumably lending increases this time every year) Includes remortages (so given the amount of media panic re interest rises, could be just due to more fixing) And is still down y-o-y (after a poor March 2010)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Cavey Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Mortgage lending jumps: headline in FT in smaller print: Mortgage lending was 21 per cent higher in March than in February, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) – but total advances were still 2 per cent lower than a year previously and unlikely to lead to any uplift in house prices, according to brokers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 On a property worth £1 million the stamp duty bill will rise from £40,000 to £50,000 from April 6, 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 On a property worth £1 million the stamp duty bill will rise from £40,000 to £50,000 from April 6, 2011. How much of an impact do people think this is going to have had on indices, mortgage figures etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The quarterly lending figures are just shy of the lows reached a couple of years ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 How much of an impact do people think this is going to have had on indices, mortgage figures etc? March and the early days of April apparently saw a rush to beat the 5% stamp duty. Hundreds of millions of pounds changed hands in hours in a property scramble to beat the new five per cent stamp duty tax. Buyers exchanged and completed seven-figure deals to save themselves thousands of pounds. One estate agent pushed through £90million of transactions, comparing it to the Premier League transfer window. http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23939061-house-sales-rush-to-beat-tax-rise-frenzy-in-london-sparked-by-stamp-duty-increase.do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 March and the early days of April apparently saw a rush to beat the 5% stamp duty. Sufficient to explain the recent uptick in the indices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 On a property worth £1 million the stamp duty bill will rise from £40,000 to £50,000 from April 6, 2011. Yup - this would skey the stats somewhat. Need to see how many transactions this represents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yup - this would skey the stats somewhat. Need to see how many transactions this represents. Would such a fixed deadline finally provide a turning point for the London market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Would such a fixed deadline finally provide a turning point for the London market? No. It would just account for why the March total lending figure would be higher due to demand being brought forward. When they give the April figure a split from the 7th April might be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 No. It would just account for why the March total lending figure would be higher due to demand being brought forward. When they give the April figure a split from the 7th April might be interesting. IIRC there is one survey that doesn't cover a calendar month but the last three weeks of one month and the first of the week after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miko Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Capital Radio news at 10 reported it as the housing market bouncing back. Could not listen to all the sh-t that was spouted as I should be at work by 10 and I was still parking the car , so had to switch off the radio and run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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