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What do people think will happen to the Japanese property market if there's an HPC in Australia, UK, Spain, US, etc? It's been said many times that it's due to turn around and hasn't. I just get this nagging feeling now that it is about to rise.

Any expert opinions on here?

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What do people think will happen to the Japanese property market if there's an HPC in Australia, UK, Spain, US, etc? It's been said many times that it's due to turn around and hasn't. I just get this nagging feeling now that it is about to rise.

Any expert opinions on here?

I think the better Japanese manufacturers depend on foreign markets to buy their wares. If the U.S. and Europe buy fewer Japanese company products due to HPC, it could put further downward pressure on Japanese incomes.

Japanese housing prices are still drifting downwards. The problem is that everyone in Japan knows this, so who wants to buy a detached house when the land under it is dropping in value by almost 4% per year. Okay, so a few prime commercial sites are up--but there aren't so many of them.

The real problem for Japan is that the number of deaths is about to overtake the number of births. From about 2006-07 onwards, the Japanese population will begin to fall. The number of people aged 65+ will surge as the boomers pass through the demographic pyramid in the next decade. Their need for nursing care and desire to cash out their real estate holdings will put further downward pressure on residential real esate, especially in the provinces where there is little industry outside farming and light manufacturing.

I think prices of 2nd and 3rd-grade properties will continue to stagnate for the next couple of decades until average house prices reach about 4.5x average annual household income. They are still about 7x at the moment. (These are really rough figures).

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I think the better Japanese manufacturers depend on foreign markets to buy their wares. If the U.S. and Europe buy fewer Japanese company products due to HPC, it could put further downward pressure on Japanese incomes.

Japanese housing prices are still drifting downwards. The problem is that everyone in Japan knows this, so who wants to buy a detached house when the land under it is dropping in value by almost 4% per year. Okay, so a few prime commercial sites are up--but there aren't so many of them.

The real problem for Japan is that the number of deaths is about to overtake the number of births. From about 2006-07 onwards, the Japanese population will begin to fall. The number of people aged 65+ will surge as the boomers pass through the demographic pyramid in the next decade. Their need for nursing care and desire to cash out their real estate holdings will put further downward pressure on residential real esate, especially in the provinces where there is little industry outside farming and light manufacturing.

I think prices of 2nd and 3rd-grade properties will continue to stagnate for the next couple of decades until average house prices reach about 4.5x average annual household income. They are still about 7x at the moment. (These are really rough figures).

Thanks.

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What do people think will happen to the Japanese property market if there's an HPC in Australia, UK, Spain, US, etc? It's been said many times that it's due to turn around and hasn't. I just get this nagging feeling now that it is about to rise.

Any expert opinions on here?

Land prices have been gaining in Tokyo for the first time in 15 years and Japanese equities are now "better than sex" according to a hedge fund manager interviewed on CNBC today. NIK will see 40,000 in the next ten years he also forecast!

Must admit I put a big wedge into Japanese ITs over the last few months and they've beaten the sh*t out of any other market I'm in.

However - the big hedge funds have been pouring money into Japan for many months now and are showing big gains - some of them will take short term profits and the market could well back off - buy more if it gets near 12000 again would be my ploy. I'm in for the long term on this though.

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Just a quick and nasty yield calculation on a Japanese apartment, say 1 km from a railway station some 30 km out of Tokyo.

Cost of 2nd-hand (built after 1992) 2 bdrm, 65 sq meter apartment, say 40 million yen. Gross rental income, say 125,000 yen per month.

125,000 x 12 = 1.5 million per year (assuming 100% occupancy)

1.5 million / 40 million = 3.75% gross return on capital. (Still, banks are only paying about 0.5% interest on savings accounts...)

Note that this doesn't take into account depreciation, insurance, etc. Plus, the apartment will only have a service life of about 30 years before a major refit is needed. (And you try to get all the members of the owners' cooperative to agree on the repair bills.)

Capital gains tax, and fixed asset tax (kotei shisan-zei) is significant in Japan, plus inheritance tax can take a good 40% bite in some cases.

AND Tokyo is due for a major earthquake any decade now.

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Land prices have been gaining in Tokyo for the first time in 15 years and Japanese equities are now "better than sex" according to a hedge fund manager interviewed on CNBC today. NIK will see 40,000 in the next ten years he also forecast!

OOOOOOH.....I'm getting all moist!

....enough already!,look if the OAP's die then whatever wealth they still have will be split amongst the kin.....meaning CONSUMER SPLURGE ALERT!!!!!!

what would the average punter do if they had just inherited a few thousand?....yup....SPEND IT!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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