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southmartin

The Non-Yellow Shiney Stuff

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Silver is going to $100s of dollars an ounce in time.

I agree. Can't go wrong if you have time.

Watching silver $ going on eBay for 40 times face value. I am tempted to unload my "hoard" as there is always a Hunt scenario that pops up just when everyone is getting into a frenzy of buying as they frantically try to buy to catch the buying wave.

It's frenzy time once again folks.

Tulips look nice this time of the year what? ;)

Edited by Realistbear

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I agree. Can't go wrong if you have time.

It was only October that you were declaring the market top for silver.

That may prove to be the market top for Ag.

Silver was about $24.50 at that time. It's currently $43.00.

See how far it's shot up in so little a time?

But keep on calling the top RB, as silver passes $50, $100, $150.....

We've been here before.

You called the top in gold when it fell to $590 an ounce a few years ago. It's now fast closing in on $1500 an ounce.

I think you've lost your mojo since 1980.

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It was only October that you were declaring the market top for silver.

Silver was about $24.50 at that time. It's currently $43.00.

See how far it's shot up in so little a time?

But keep on calling the top RB, as silver passes $50, $100, $150.....

We've been here before.

You called the top in gold when it fell to $590 an ounce a few years ago. It's now fast closing in on $1500 an ounce.

I think you've lost your mojo since 1980.

Haven't bought metals since 1980 and only sold my gold sovs then to help pay for a house. Seeing people in a state of frenzy over gold back then persuaded me to sell and use the money for a house rather than believe in the myth that anything is a one-way bet. Good thing I did sell as those sovs are still nowhere near break even after 30 odd years (IA).

You make nothing until you have sold and realised the profit. The problem with frenzied investing is knowing when to sell, not calling the top (which is anyone's guess).

Has anyone actually made any money on metals on here or are they counting the profit they might make if they sell "in time?"

Even tulips hit a top and collapsed within days (hours?). When the Hunt brothers did their thing Silver collapsed very quickly and it still has not hit the peak of years ago. Unless you actually sell you have not made any profit and the time to sell is when you decide enough is enough. Holding on for that extra 5% can cost you everything.

If China are calling it correctly a commodities bust is around the corner and it will sweep everything down with it:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/China-sovereign-wealth-fund-reuters_molt-2575970202.html?x=0

8:30, Saturday 16 April 2011
BOAO, China (Reuters) - The global economy may slow down or even fall into recession again in 2012, Lou Jiwei, the head of China's $300 billion (184 billion pound) sovereign wealth fund, said on Saturday.
"We are relatively optimistic about 2011, but for 2012, it is possible there will be a big drop in economic growth or even recession," Lou, chairman of China Investment Corp , told the Boao Forum for Asia on the southern Chinese island of Hainan.
Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/texas-university-endowment-holds-almost-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html

Texas University Takes Cue From Kyle Bass to Hold $1 Billion in Gold Bars
By David Mildenberg and Pham-Duy Nguyen - Apr 15, 2011 11:13 PM GMT+0100..../
The decision to turn the fund’s investment into gold bars was influenced by Kyle Bass, a Dallas hedge fund manager and member of the endowment’s board
who said you can't lose
, Zimmerman said yesterday at its annual meeting. Bass made $500 million on the U.S. subprime- mortgage collapse.
:o

It's frenzy time just as the tulips are blossoming. :)

Edited by Realistbear

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rather than believe in the myth that anything is a one-way bet

Who says gold and silver are one way bet?

The difference between now and 1980 was that back then, interest rates were not negative. You could get a real return on savings in a bank, with a level of security that most people prefer.

I'd rather have my money in a bank than buy gold and silver. But with today's negative IRs, I might as well flush my cash down the toilet than keep it in a bank. It's quicker and there's no pesky forms to fill in.

The problem with frenzied investing is knowing when to sell, not calling the top (which is anyone's guess).

Don't we know it. :rolleyes:

The "frenzy" in gold seems to be quite a prolonged one. And silver is just getting started.

Maybe the current silver price is a reflection of price controls breaking down?

Silver Breaks Out From Price Manipulation, The Gains Will be Breath Taking

Has anyone actually made any money on metals on here or are they counting the profit they might make if they sell "in time?"

Which, had we listened to you, would have been 4 years ago.

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Who says gold and silver are one way bet?

The difference between now and 1980 was that back then, interest rates were not negative. You could get a real return on savings in a bank, with a level of security that most people prefer.

I'd rather have my money in a bank than buy gold and silver. But with today's negative IRs, I might as well flush my cash down the toilet than keep it in a bank. It's quicker and there's no pesky forms to fill in.

Don't we know it. :rolleyes:

The "frenzy" in gold seems to be quite a prolonged one. And silver is just getting started.

Maybe the current silver price is a reflection of price controls breaking down?

Silver Breaks Out From Price Manipulation, The Gains Will be Breath Taking

Which, had we listened to you, would have been 4 years ago.

I am wondering if anyone on here has actually made any money selling metals? Easy to buy but no profit until sold.

When I sold my sovs for an equivalent of $2437.76 (IA) an ounce in 1980 I "invested" in a house as I needed a place to live. That £40k house is now worth £500k last time I looked--okay knock off 20% and you still have a sizeable return. If I had simply kept my sovs I wouldf be about 50% down after inflation. Just to say--metals are indeed not a one way bet and they are a very poor investment unless you sell and realise the profit. The current frezuy has al the hallmarks of a 1980 situation where gold was being bought without regard to anything else--it was bandwagon buying.

But it is different this time?

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"We are relatively optimistic about 2011, but for 2012, it is possible there will be a big drop in economic growth or even recession," Lou, chairman of China Investment Corp , told the Boao Forum for Asia on the southern Chinese island of Hainan.[/indent]

If they are right and there is a big drop in economic growth or even recession, won't that mean interest rates won't rise?

Do you see that as a negative for PMs?

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Go for 500g and 1000g bars.

Lots of dealers around, and if you know how you can duck the VAT.

All new to this and with out coming in at the end of your hard work, how do you do this please?

Added

(just a push in the right direction)

Edited by timebandit

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If they are right and there is a big drop in economic growth or even recession, won't that mean interest rates won't rise?

Do you see that as a negative for PMs?

If we get a commodities bust property markets will just drop even further--lotsa unemployment. House prices are credit availability driven as long as you have a corrupt banking system. Price is less relavent when LIAR LOANS are free and easy.

Off to the metals forum we go.....................................................

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If we get a commodities bust property markets will just drop even further--lotsa unemployment. House prices are credit availability driven as long as you have a corrupt banking system. Price is less relavent when LIAR LOANS are free and easy.

Off to the metals forum we go.....................................................

If they are right about a recession and interest rates stay negative won't that continue to make PMs a buy? Why sell for cash that is losing value or spend it on property which you say will drop.

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If they are right and there is a big drop in economic growth or even recession, won't that mean interest rates won't rise?

Do you see that as a negative for PMs?

Negative rates arent the only factor for commodities, there is an assumption as mentioned by bart that whilst rates remain negative PMs will continue to go up which in itself is sound analysis. Whats different to the 70/80s this time is that rather than just govt debt there has been a hyperinflation of private debt in tandem, any destruction of that debt money (recession which would likely mean short term positive rates at zirp) may well cause a rally in Cash as there is simply less money in the system by which commodities are valued. This is exactly what happened in 08, the dollar rallied, being the reserve currency there is more dollar debt than any other currency so more dollars were being destroyed. Inflation via QE is not solving the personal debt issue and cant, they are probably starting to see that, when they start helicoptering then that might.

Whilst i think Gold will ultimately go to a high of 3500+ during this global depression im pretty convinced its gonna take a 50/60% spanking before it start motoring because im pretty convinced there is a bigger global nominal recession than 08 coming in the next couple of years that will destroy a large amount of debt wealth/money.Some of the metal lovers dont care about any correction of that magnitude because they bought early enough and probably see its ultimate price potential, but there are quite a few potentially joining the party late who will inevitably get rinsed if it does spank because of the negative sentiment that would surround it at its lows would force quite a few of them to sell out of fear should it happen.

As an analogy on a housing bull market basis starting in the 70s i would view gold just entering 1988/9

As for why the metal lovers keep getting reeled in and responding to RB, i have no idea, he is clearly a class A Wum that gives Absolute Zero a run for his money

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Negative rates arent the only factor for commodities, there is an assumption as mentioned by bart that whilst rates remain negative PMs will continue to go up which in itself is sound analysis. Whats different to the 70/80s this time is that rather than just govt debt there has been a hyperinflation of private debt in tandem, any destruction of that debt money (recession) may well cause a rally in Cash as there is simply less money in the system by which commodities are valued. This is exactly what happened in 08, the dollar rallied, being the reserve currency there is more dollar debt than any other currency so more dollars were being destroyed. Inflation via QE is not solving the personal debt issue and cant, they are probably starting to see that, when they start helicoptering then that might.

Whilst i think Gold will ultimately go to a high of 3500+ during this global depression im pretty convinced its gonna take a 50/60% spanking before it start motoring because im pretty convinced there is a bigger global nominal recession than 08 coming in the next couple of years that will destroy a large amount of debt wealth/money

As for why the metal lovers keep getting reeled in and responding to RB, i have no idea, he is clearly a class A Wum that gives Absolute Zero a run for his money

The UK plan now is clearly even more private debt. They recently predicted an extra £300bn in this parliament.

So what's your plan for anyone holding sterling?

Switch to dollars now? Then when we have a repeat of Autumn 2008 switch back and buy anything that drops?

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The UK plan now is clearly even more private debt. They recently predicted an extra £300bn in this parliament.

So what's your plan for anyone holding sterling?

Switch to dollars now? Then when we have a repeat of Autumn 2008 switch back and buy anything that drops?

i dont really have a well thought out plan for sterling as its not a currency that i have an interest in financially, if i did however i think its probably good to hold until at least the end of this year in dollar terms, maybe not in metal terms though

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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i dont really have a well thought out plan for sterling as its not a currency that i have an interest in financially, if i did however i think its probably good to hold until at least the end of this year in dollar terms, maybe not in metal terms though

So buy PMs but hope to time a 50% to 60% spanking correctly?

What could go wrong? :)

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So buy PMs but hope to time a 50% to 60% spanking correctly?

What could go wrong? :)

The PM spanking may never come but it takes a very rare emotionless person to hold an asset through a 50% decline when the media and tinternet will be telling you the asset class is guaranteed to drop another 50% on top at that point.

The advantage metals and houses have of course is that they arent going to go to zero like stocks, but the sort of person who is going to hold something blindly without wondering during any reversal is quite likely to be the sort of person who would have bought Real Networks at 5 watched it go to 180 and then watched it all the way back down to 5

Probably safest going down Kempton Park and having a good time

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Guest spp

Whilst i think Gold will ultimately go to a high of 3500+ during this global depression im pretty convinced its gonna take a 50/60% spanking before it start motoring because im pretty convinced there is a bigger global nominal recession than 08 coming in the next couple of years that will destroy a large amount of debt wealth/money.Some of the metal lovers dont care about any correction of that magnitude because they bought early enough and probably see its ultimate price potential, but there are quite a few potentially joining the party late who will inevitably get rinsed if it does spank because of the negative sentiment that would surround it at its lows would force quite a few of them to sell out of fear should it happen.

As an analogy on a housing bull market basis starting in the 70s i would view gold just entering 1988/9

FAIL!

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The PM spanking may never come but it takes a very rare emotionless person to hold an asset through a 50% decline when the media and tinternet will be telling you the asset class is guaranteed to drop another 50% on top at that point.

The advantage metals and houses have of course is that they arent going to go to zero like stocks, but the sort of person who is going to hold something blindly without wondering during any reversal is quite likely to be the sort of person who bought Real Networks at 5 watched it go to 180 and then watched it all the way back down to 5

Probably safest going down Kempton Park and having a good time

Metals and HOUSES!

In your switching to bear thread wasn't it $500 gold and £100k houses?

Haydock was my most profitable meeting today :)

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When I sold my sovs for an equivalent of $2437.76 (IA) an ounce in 1980 I "invested" in a house as I needed a place to live. That £40k house is now worth £500k last time I looked--okay knock off 20% and you still have a sizeable return. If I had simply kept my sovs I wouldf be about 50% down after inflation. Just to say--metals are indeed not a one way bet and they are a very poor investment unless you sell and realise the profit. The current frezuy has al the hallmarks of a 1980 situation where gold was being bought without regard to anything else--it was bandwagon buying.

Good timing. My best chinese buy was shares in Next when they slumped to 12p in about 1991. They're now worth close on £200,000. Shame I didn't actually buy them.

Oh for a crystal ball.

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Just to say--metals are indeed not a one way bet and they are a very poor investment unless you sell and realise the profit. The current frezuy has al the hallmarks of a 1980 situation where gold was being bought without regard to anything else--it was bandwagon buying.

But it is different this time?

RB, you are correct to mention the 1980 fall and long term bear market of gold (slightly over 20 years). Anyone buying at 1980 highs and sitting on their gold would have made a very poor investment. Inflation adjusted, gold is still 50% below its all time highs.

The question I have is: Why will gold fall this time?

To answer this question I think you need to understand why it's currently rising, and I don't think you do.

BTW, the only "mania" I see for gold at the moment is for selling the stuff (Cash4Gold etc.).

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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