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I stole this from the Thread "Telegraph House prices falling faster than in Spain"

Last October, I pointed out in this space how the top and bottom ends of the housing market were diverging, with prices in the capital continuing to rise despite falls elsewhere. This is creating a ‘Manhattan-on-Thames’ effect where younger residents are priced out of property ownership, unless they are extremely rich. Evidence of the widening gap between generations of Londoners can be seen in research by Key Retirement Solutions, which found that people aged over 65 now own more than 16 per cent of all the housing wealth in the capital.

How come London is managing to stay up? Sure, people earn alot more, but house prices are on average double (?) what they are in the rest of the country. Therefore we shouldn't be immune.

London doesn't seem immune to cuts, I've heard of them going on at quite a few places. e.g. NHS positions, government departments.

What will get the London HPC going again.

Excuse my impatience. But I am!

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London is massively overpopulated, employment and wealth are disproportionately centered on the capital at the expense of elsewhere, rental accommodation is scarce and housing benefit is still quite generous.

Rail fares are also very high which is containing people who normally move out to cheaper areas but can't add 4k onto their commuting costs for a travel card.

Anywhere near a good school will have people fighting over it, and even dismal places get a

good rental yield for a landlord.

You need to be quite quick on your feet to buy in london, some areas become popular and once they have they are out of reach.

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I stole this from the Thread "Telegraph House prices falling faster than in Spain"

Last October, I pointed out in this space how the top and bottom ends of the housing market were diverging, with prices in the capital continuing to rise despite falls elsewhere. This is creating a ‘Manhattan-on-Thames’ effect where younger residents are priced out of property ownership, unless they are extremely rich. Evidence of the widening gap between generations of Londoners can be seen in research by Key Retirement Solutions, which found that people aged over 65 now own more than 16 per cent of all the housing wealth in the capital.

How come London is managing to stay up? Sure, people earn alot more, but house prices are on average double (?) what they are in the rest of the country. Therefore we shouldn't be immune.

London doesn't seem immune to cuts, I've heard of them going on at quite a few places. e.g. NHS positions, government departments.

What will get the London HPC going again.

Excuse my impatience. But I am!

Very few government employees have been able to afford to buy in London for a long time. There are few high paid employees compared to the private sector. For instance, over 50% of central London property is bought by overseas buyers. Some areas (like Wandsworth have high percentage of financial services buyers, and there are media industry buyers, a large amount of cash buyers who are investing.

I read a free property magazine had charts of where the money was coming from for several council area and government employees didn't even register.

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London is fairing better as it is the most extreme case of what you have quoted it has the riches people and some of the most expensive property.

Rich people already have money and many a means of production/property to start with which means this current liquidity party makes them able to borrow vast sums.

Also around the world this is repeated you may not think it but in many of he world shit holes the rich are actually a lot richer than most of the rich in the UK. This liquidity makes them feel that this is the right time to invest in that bolt hole away from those smelly pitchfork carrying plebs back home + the devaluation of sterling.

Many people feel rich you may have a few million but your not, even a few hundred million might not even be the ticket. The super rich are tapped in the artery of the financial system and cheap money at the moment means they have never had it so good.

Saying this however some interest rate rises and a rise in sterling will mean that the falls at the top could be pretty spectacular when they come.

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I think we have assume that "London" is immune. By "London" I mean central London. Its always been a very unequal place. To live in Central London you will either have to be very rich, or have access to social housing. If not you are confined to the outer suburbs. Out in say Havering (which is quite pleasant) you can rent a semi for the cost of a Docklands bolt hole.

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housepricemedianwage.gif

Area	                                           North East	North West	Yorks & Humber	Wales	East Midlands	Northern Ireland	Scotland	West Midlands	South West	East	South East	LondonHouse Price ODPM	                     138,851	153,350	153,690	154,655	162,532	162,740	168,086	171,981	217,505	231,955	271,735	340,006Median Wage ASHE Gross	           381.3	381.3	378.4	369.5	383.6	357.5	393.3	382.0	379.1	421.6	439.8	521.7House divided by median	364.15	402.18	406.16	418.55	423.7	455.22	427.37	450.21	573.74	550.18	617.86	651.73Yearly Gross wage	                     19827.6	19827.6	19676.8	19214	19947.2	18590	20451.6	19864	19713.2	21923.2	22869.6	27128.4

What's wrong is everyone should be grouped together, there is no reason London should be higher on an X/Y scale than anywhere else.

Edited by northwestsmith2

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London is massively overpopulated, employment and wealth are disproportionately centered on the capital at the expense of elsewhere, rental accommodation is scarce and housing benefit is still quite generous.

Rail fares are also very high which is containing people who normally move out to cheaper areas but can't add 4k onto their commuting costs for a travel card.

Anywhere near a good school will have people fighting over it, and even dismal places get a

good rental yield for a landlord.

You need to be quite quick on your feet to buy in london, some areas become popular and once they have they are out of reach.

From a Woodlands Junior School project:

London's population was 7,172,000 on the latest Census Day of April 2001. This is 14.6 per cent of the total population of Britain. The population in 2005 was thought to have been about 7,518,000.

The population of London peaked in 1951 when the census of that year recorded about 8,346,000.

http://www.woodlands.../population.htm

If on top of the population falls you considering the numbers of redevelopments that have taken place since the 1950s, I think the view that London is bursting at the seams is completely untrue.

Despite these facts, I guess we will keep hearing the same fable that London is overcrowded. It helps people rationalise the price rises.

Edited by _w_

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Area	                                           North East	North West	Yorks & Humber	Wales	East Midlands	Northern Ireland	Scotland	West Midlands	South West	East	South East	LondonHouse Price ODPM	                     138,851	153,350	153,690	154,655	162,532	162,740	168,086	171,981	217,505	231,955	271,735	340,006Median Wage ASHE Gross	           381.3	381.3	378.4	369.5	383.6	357.5	393.3	382.0	379.1	421.6	439.8	521.7House divided by median	364.15	402.18	406.16	418.55	423.7	455.22	427.37	450.21	573.74	550.18	617.86	651.73Yearly Gross wage	                     19827.6	19827.6	19676.8	19214	19947.2	18590	20451.6	19864	19713.2	21923.2	22869.6	27128.4

What's wrong is everyone should be grouped together, there is no reason London should be higher on an X/Y scale than anywhere else.

Well, form the figure I saw, a large part of buyers were buying with cash from various sources. And wages like 27K don't exist in most big companies, except for a cleaners I suppose.

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If on top of the population falls you considering the numbers of redevelopments that have taken place since the 1950s, I think the view that London is bursting at the seams is completely untrue.

Despite these facts, I guess we will keep hearing the same fable that London is overcrowded. It helps people rationalise the price rises.

Whether the population has risen or not is irrelevant the prices have risen and in some parts they are still rising. If that does not rationalise the price rises can you give your reason that they have risen ?

Do the population numbers include people that live here full time only ? There are many people from across the world who have bought property in London who would not show up on any population figures as they do not live here full time . Many of the Arabs who buy expensive houses for cash only come to London for the month of August .

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Everyonekeep in contact from my uni days living/working in/near London rents/houseshares/lives with parents. Theyre all on good money (£40-50k basic) and nearing on 30 years old.

I can only assume lots of landlords are making a mint. No one else can afford anything.

Edited by Sadman

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Everyonekeep in contact from my uni days living/working in/near London rents/houseshares/lives with parents. Theyre all on good money (£40-50k basic) and nearing on 30 years old.

I can only assume lots of landlords are making a mint. No one else can afford anything.

Have none of them ever heard of East London or South East London , if they are on that kind of money they could afford a decent home in those places , not all of London is £1m + for a 3 bed semi. No wonder the landlords are making a mint if there are people quequing up to give them their money .

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Have none of them ever heard of East London or South East London , if they are on that kind of money they could afford a decent home in those places , not all of London is £1m + for a 3 bed semi. No wonder the landlords are making a mint if there are people quequing up to give them their money .

Is south east London even safe for actual proper people with brains not in gangs?

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Is south east London even safe for actual proper people with brains not in gangs?

Lol like most of London there are good and bad parts , if people dropped their prejudice views (its not the Bronx ) and took a look they will find decent property for well under what £40/50k basic can buy . South and East London might not have the post code snobbery of the up market areas but very few even on good money can buy in the best parts to start of with.

By the way one of the areas where people are most likely to be attacked in London is Westminister.

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Do the population numbers include people that live here full time only ? There are many people from across the world who have bought property in London who would not show up on any population figures as they do not live here full time . Many of the Arabs who buy expensive houses for cash only come to London for the month of August .

It is a fact that most if not all major cities in Europe lost population since WWII. The car, better public transports, etc. meant that people moved out of city centers in very large numbers. And no, I don't believe London's legendary non resident cash buyers had any impact on this major population shift.

Whether the population has risen or not is irrelevant the prices have risen and in some parts they are still rising. If that does not rationalise the price rises can you give your reason that they have risen ?

I am writing about the myth of population growth leading to the equally mythical concept of scarcity of lodgings.

That it may serve as an explanation for house price rises does not make it less wrong or misleading. For a valid reason for house price rises you may look into monetary factors, as an hpc old timer I'm surprised you ask the question.

Edited by _w_

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It is a fact that most if not all major cities in Europe lost population since WWII. The car, better public transports, etc. meant that people moved out of city centers in very large numbers. And no, I don't believe London's legendary non resident cash buyers had any impact on this major population shift.

I am writing about the myth of population growth leading to the equally mythical concept of scarcity of lodgings.

That it may serve as an explanation for house price rises does not make it less wrong or misleading. For a valid reason for house price rises you may look into monetary factors, as an hpc long timer I'm surprised you ask the question.

Well I don't agree with your fact where London is concerned . Having been born and bought up on its outskirts , lived in Zone two , worked and travelled in the centre , it is easy to see how many more people there are in London than 10/15 years ago. When I mention to people that the underground is busy all day long like the rush hour was 15 years ago they all seem to agree , so it not my mind playing tricks with me the amount of people is there for everyone to see.

I never asked if you thought the legendary non resident cash buyers had any impact on this population shift . I asked were they counted in the popultion numbers you gave out? By the way these cash buyers are not a legend they are fact whether we like it or not.

As i said if people that are not counted in the population are buying property population numbers is not the only factor to look at when trying to fathom the unending upward pressure on prices in some parts of the capital.

If you do not think scarcity of lodgings is puting up prices to buy and rent , don't take my word for it go out and do some home work on it . Contact some agents in London and ask about renting a place to lodge and see the responses.

Pity you did not mention monatry factors in your prior posts as the reason for the price rises . But then you would have to agree that the legend of the cash buyer from abroad and here does exist.

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Well I don't agree with your fact where London is concerned . Having been born and bought up on its outskirts , lived in Zone two , worked and travelled in the centre , it is easy to see how many more people there are in London than 10/15 years ago.

You are correct in that, but we are still well below the levels of the 1950s so in terms of capacity it is incorrect to say London is 'full'.

I never asked if you thought the legendary non resident cash buyers had any impact on this population shift . I asked were they counted in the popultion numbers you gave out? By the way these cash buyers are not a legend they are fact whether we like it or not.

As i said if people that are not counted in the population are buying property population numbers is not the only factor to look at when trying to fathom the unending upward pressure on prices in some parts of the capital.

The foreign non resident cash buyers with a taste for a London pad have a minimal impact on anywhere other than Mayfair. I have no doubt foreign investors do have an impact but then they rent their properties, and the renters will show up in the census and other population data. So the fact remains, there are much fewer people living in London today than there were 60 years ago.

Pity you did not mention monatry factors in your prior posts as the reason for the price rises . But then you would have to agree that the legend of the cash buyer from abroad and here does exist.

I truly believe there is nothing other than monetary causes (as in money/credit, not currency related) to house price rises in the UK. I'm not sure how any of my posts may have led you to believe otherwise. The fundamentals such as depopulation (or 'under population' if you prefer), falling real wages, multiplication of lodgings through intense levels of redevelopments (houses to flats, large flats to smaller flats, etc.), falling economic activity have all pointed to price falls for at least the last ten years.

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Have none of them ever heard of East London or South East London , if they are on that kind of money they could afford a decent home in those places , not all of London is £1m + for a 3 bed semi. No wonder the landlords are making a mint if there are people quequing up to give them their money .

Is south east London even safe for actual proper people with brains not in gangs?

I've moved 'out' to south East London. I could afford to buy a house. I live in a nicer part of close in South East London. The transport is rubbish. My mate who lives out in New Eltham (which is further out) can get to work just as quick using public tranport.

I have seen terraced around here that were selling at 275K in 2003, advertised for 675K. The interest rates were about the same in 2003 as 2007(weren't they?). Buy now and I'll be paying a shedload for 'rubbish' South East London.

That's what gets me. We all talk about demographics and trends, and yet in 2003 you could buy comfortably here before it bubbled. Everyone in London hasn't suddenly become more wealthy than 2003. In fact it seems like we are getting poorer.

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Whether the population has risen or not is irrelevant the prices have risen and in some parts they are still rising. If that does not rationalise the price rises can you give your reason that they have risen ?

Liar loans, pensions raids, BTL, MPs flipping. Stuff like that.

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You are correct in that, but we are still well below the levels of the 1950s so in terms of capacity it is incorrect to say London is 'full'.

The density of housing can change dramatically over time (from tenement slums to flats owned by one person), expectations of home ownership (as opposed to renting) also change, affecting demand for buying homes, so the population figures don't tell the whole story without considering other factors. That said the population has been rising since the end of the 70s, which will put some pressure on housing if all other things are equal. I suspect there will be spots with far too much housing where new blocks of flats have been built, and some in-demand areas (near good schools for example) with far too little compared to the demand as any big city varies a lot between areas.

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From a Woodlands Junior School project:

http://www.woodlands.../population.htm

If on top of the population falls you considering the numbers of redevelopments that have taken place since the 1950s, I think the view that London is bursting at the seams is completely untrue.

Despite these facts, I guess we will keep hearing the same fable that London is overcrowded. It helps people rationalise the price rises.

Highly unreliable statistics there.

Does it include foreign students?, T

Those people that own property in London but are non resident? (50%+ of sales in parts of central london now),

Does it include non-Doms?,

Does it include illegal immigrants? (estimates at 500,000 people in London) ,

Does it include those on 6month tourist visa?

Those on ICT Visas? 5 year work permits ,

i could go on etc etc

No doubt Londons population did peak pre post WW2 then there was a big drop through to the 1990's due to slum clearance, new towns in the home counties, bombing and emigration but all of the things i have mentioned above were non-existant in previous decades and census figures may have been more accurate

My feeling as someone who works in London is that the population has increased markedly since the 1990's especially now that London is marketed as a global tax haven; infact it was one of the last governments (unmentioned) policies to do just that with all the consequent HPI

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Lol like most of London there are good and bad parts , if people dropped their prejudice views (its not the Bronx ) and took a look they will find decent property for well under what £40/50k basic can buy . South and East London might not have the post code snobbery of the up market areas but very few even on good money can buy in the best parts to start of with.

By the way one of the areas where people are most likely to be attacked in London is Westminister.

:lol: Nice.

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If I had the means, I'd move to central London in a heartbeat, maybe around Queensway/Lancaster Gate area. Or maybe Notting Hill Gate, or Fulham Road. Until my numbers come in it's Oldham I'm afraid :)

I mean we're talking about some of the most desirable areas in the world. I know there are loads of people who say they would rather die than live in London but for every 1 person who says that there must be n who feel the complete opposite.

My grandmother sold a 3 bed flat on Powis Square (W11) for about £160k in 2001, God knows what that place is going for these days, I just can't fathom how property was ever only £160k in central London, yet that was only 10 years ago! :blink:

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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