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LC1

Global Economic Collapse & World War

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...please excuse this slightly left-field post from a new member, but I really wanted to gauge people's opinions on whether the slightly alarmist title of this thread is a genuine possibility for the imminent future?

Granted this is not strictly about houseprices, but it seems as though this forum plays host to a diverse spectrum of people whose outlooks on the current global economic & geopolitical situation range from cynical to downright apocalyptic! ;)

For example, over the past few months of reading this forum I've come across many posts very similar to this one from yesterday:

Anyway, there's perhaps a year or so to gets one's ducks in a row hopefully. This one might just be the 'biggie' before whatever world order comes after. Personally I'd want any 'capital' close to home, out of derivatives, in UK based banks safely within guarantee limits (or whatever else people think will protect them against serious global asset price falls and dislocative rate rises :rolleyes:) and so on and hope war is avoided and we stagger through to the other side.

Other posts I've seen have been more along the lines of "sell assets, invest in gold, tinned food and shotguns". Of course there's always an element of humour to such posts, but also an underlying point about the seemingly inevitable direction in which we're heading!

Without wanting to get all doom and gloom, could people briefly give their views on the following:

1) Is a full on global economic meltdown a realistic possibility in the near future?

2) What will be the triggers/signals?

3) What will the likely fallout be?

4) Will it be World War, or something else (another cold war, nuclear posturing, economic warfare etc)?

Wow, what a cheery post! I look forward to your equally optimistic thoughts! :ph34r:

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...please excuse this slightly left-field post from a new member, but I really wanted to gauge people's opinions on whether the slightly alarmist title of this thread is a genuine possibility for the imminent future?

Granted this is not strictly about houseprices, but it seems as though this forum plays host to a diverse spectrum of people whose outlooks on the current global economic & geopolitical situation range from cynical to downright apocalyptic! ;)

For example, over the past few months of reading this forum I've come across many posts very similar to this one from yesterday:

Other posts I've seen have been more along the lines of "sell assets, invest in gold, tinned food and shotguns". Of course there's always an element of humour to such posts, but also an underlying point about the seemingly inevitable direction in which we're heading!

Without wanting to get all doom and gloom, could people briefly give their views on the following:

1) Is a full on global economic meltdown a realistic possibility in the near future?

2) What will be the triggers/signals?

3) What will the likely fallout be?

4) Will it be World War, or something else (another cold war, nuclear posturing, economic warfare etc)?

Wow, what a cheery post! I look forward to your equally optimistic thoughts! :ph34r:

Hello - well since you've quoted me I shall, briefly, respond.

First - my quote is taken out of context. I think I was musing on a Gavyn Davies' (economist) blog in the FT in which he was summarising various scenarios in the recent IMF report relating to what might happen if inflation rises significantly above baseline in China in particular and US etc as well. So, these aren't my personal thoughts at all.

Second - I'd (mostly) consider myself to be a 'moderate' in these matters. i.e. I don't expect the end of the world, the second coming, and so on, and I'm not in the shotguns, gold and God camp that others clearly are.

That said, since prior to '08 and since I have decided to take sensible personal precautions against a repeat of the '08 financial collapse as far as practicable. My main concerns locally would centre around the banks, bailouts, and more importantly what might happen to the supply chain. Japan tells us what happens when you have a supply chain reliant upon key components manufactured in concentrated physical locations and the disruption that can be caused even outside of any financial breakdown.

At a macro level of course I'm concerned that little has been done to put right the problems which appear to have led up to '08 - the banking crises and the sovereign debt crises. In particular nothing has really been done to correct the global trade imbalances. That would be my main area of concern which might trigger other events. Such as conflicts between China and the West, proxy wars between them (Look at what's happening in middle east now for instance) and even local conflicts between BRICS themselves as they compete for trade. e.g. China/Russia or perhaps China/India and Brazil too.

As a moderate I certainly don't think I am far out there in any way at all, and if you read mainstream thinkers on these matters (as distinct from what are often rather right wing fundamentalist 'nutters', in my opinion) then I believe many of them share very similar concerns about how these global imbalances will be resolved. How the Chinese/US surplus/deficit mismatch can reach an accomodation without leading to conflict; how the banks can be 'controlled' and regulated; and what will happen as global resources become more stretched as China and India continue to grow (indeed is it even possible for them to do so, and how will the West respond to that).

I think you're asking the right questions, but I'm not sure anyone has the right answers, just a series of possible scenarios which range from nothing much will happen it'll sort itself out, to a major conflict, possibly a global resource war. I guess you pays your money, takes your pick, decide what if any 'precautions' are right for you and get on with enjoying your life! I'm actually a rather happy and contented soul so hope none of my posts give a different view. That would be a shame (even though I'm happy to rant at incredibly over rewarded bankers many of whom ought to be doing long terms inside, not drawing huge pensions at public expense :D)

Sorry not to be any more helpful. Have fun!

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Sorry not to be any more helpful. Have fun!

Not at all! Thanks for outlining your views on this, it made very interesting reading.

I think I'm perhaps looking for people to tell me that global war isn't lurking just around the corner! :lol:

To be honest, I don't have a great deal of economic understanding regarding the way the world economy works and therefore I can't begin to fathom how the whole BRIC/US/West power play will work itself out over the next decade or so, hence my original post.

I guess the more I learn about how apparently insane the economic system is, how brazenly wars can be engineered on the flimsiest and most hypocritical of premises, how the thin the veneer of civilisation is in this world and (once you see it) how blatant is the media manipulation that keeps us happily ignorant of what's really going on, then more I think that the tipping point could be not as far off as people might like to believe....

...I'll have conversations with intelligent friends along the lines of geopolitics, and often they'll casually say something like "yeah, one day the oil will run out and then things will really kick off" as though things aren't happening already and that this will occur at some far off time in the future when they'll either be too old to care or dead! :lol:

But I can see the proverbial hitting the fan in a much shorter timescale than this - unfortunately this is not something based on 'facts' as such, more a feeling in my bones.

That's why I'd really welcome the thoughts of other people who might be a be a bit more rigorous in their analysis of this than me!

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Wow, what a cheery post! I look forward to your equally optimistic thoughts! :ph34r:

I think the best thing to do is think through in detail (as far as you can) EXACTLY how these things will play out. You'll then realise that there are a large number of possible scenarios with a vast number of variables and it is impossible to work out how this is going to play out. Personally I am just making sure that the money I have is under guarantee, and I am also in a situation that I can move money out of the country (accompanied by myself) at short notice if it all goes fubar. Think about what you are saving for, and how that is moving relative to the thing you are saving for. For example, my savings will go on a house purchase. Hence I am not especially bothered by inflation, I am only interested in the proportion of house I can get for my money. Whilst this continues to move in my direction, I am sanguine.

Here are various other points:

1. Money isn't wealth

2. Oil won't just run out, it will simply become more and more expensive

3. China has no aircraft carriers and neither does India or Brazil. Russia's military is now massively outdated.

4. The BRIC thing is a misnomer, the economies are vastly different. It is just lazy to lump them together.

5. China does not have the power projection, relative to the US, of Japan in the 40s.

6. Only the US has the ability to have a formidable military presence within any country on the global in a short space of time. Nobody else can do that, or is likely to get the capacity in the foreseeable.

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3. China has no aircraft carriers and neither does India or Brazil. Russia's military is now massively outdated.

I think that India has one, and that the Chinese are interested in building some.

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I think that India has one, and that the Chinese are interested in building some.

My apologies for the oversight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country#Numbers_of_aircraft_carriers_operated

The US currently has 11 and the BRICs have 3 between them and are building another two. I think my point that the US has overwhelming military dominance and is unlikely to be challenged in the near future.

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I think that India has one, and that the Chinese are interested in building some.

India has one, but had three our old HMS Hermes of Falklands fame. And a couple of other magestic class carriers. Their new super carrier is to be completed at the end of this year, in fact 154 indian pilots went to Moscow recently to train on the Kuznetsov as they'll be using SU33s off them.

Brazil has the Sao Paulo which used to be the French Carrier Foch (replaced by the Chardles De Gaule carrier).

Thailand has a small wasp carrier.

China has the Varag which is another Kuznetsov class carrier from the Ukraine after a sneaky business deal with a Macau consortia who pretended they'd use it as a casino. The Varag was announced 3 days ago in the Chinese press as being almost complete. They also have the HMS Melbourne which was cut up into parts a decade ago. The Societ carrier Minsk which is currently rotting away in SZ as a theme park. Also the carrier Kiev which again is rotting away in Tianjin as a themepark. Two more carriers based on a modified Varag class are going to be finished in 2014. While some news papers have reported two more being completed by 2015 and two more fleet carriers by 2020. Which I've been critical about on me blog.

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You'll then realise that there are a large number of possible scenarios with a vast number of variables and it is impossible to work out how this is going to play out.

Yes, I suppose that's true.

Here are various other points:

1. Money isn't wealth

2. Oil won't just run out, it will simply become more and more expensive

3. China has no aircraft carriers and neither does India or Brazil. Russia's military is now massively outdated.

4. The BRIC thing is a misnomer, the economies are vastly different. It is just lazy to lump them together.

5. China does not have the power projection, relative to the US, of Japan in the 40s.

6. Only the US has the ability to have a formidable military presence within any country on the global in a short space of time. Nobody else can do that, or is likely to get the capacity in the foreseeable.

Very interesting, thanks.

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I think some kind of clash in the South China Sea between the US and China in the next 20 years and/or some kind of India/China clash is inevitable sadly.

The West is busy building up Indian with weaponry as it sees India as the new Germany positioned to counter-balance Islamic extremism in Pakistan and, of course, China.

The Chinese are worrying the Yanks - they have built a new sub base and are churning out subs almost as fast as they built coal power plants. A coule of years ago a Chinese sub surfaced in the middle of US carrier-battle group. Either it surfaced as a warning or it was forced to surface.

The Chinese are also aiming to build better fighters and bombers, space technology, anti-ship missiles, etc - all of which is scaring the Yanks.

Chinese military spending is on the increase why US spending is declining. History teaches us that the dominant military power is the dominant economic power. There are many in the US military who think the sooner the US and China have a conflict the better it would be for the US.

I hope for a Star Trek future least of all so that we can all go and holiday on that pleasure planet... but you know what I mean.

People forget that when Bush came to power China was pencilled in as the new Sovet Union and there were several diplomatic and physical clashes between China and the US. Then 911 happen, US big business wanted more profits and cheaper labour and both aspects came together to make China lovely and cuddly whilst Bush turned his attention to China.

If 911 had not happened I think little of the Chinese economic boom would have happened, the US would have been operating Cold War style economic barriers against China and we would be in a very different World.

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1. Money isn't wealth

2. Oil won't just run out, it will simply become more and more expensive

3. China has no aircraft carriers and neither does India or Brazil. Russia's military is now massively outdated.

4. The BRIC thing is a misnomer, the economies are vastly different. It is just lazy to lump them together.

5. China does not have the power projection, relative to the US, of Japan in the 40s.

6. Only the US has the ability to have a formidable military presence within any country on the global in a short space of time. Nobody else can do that, or is likely to get the capacity in the foreseeable.

Aircraft carriers are WW2 white elephants. The tsunami from detonating a nuke 20 miles away will sink an entire carrier group. China knows this which is why they have built a big submarine fleet. Subs are undetectable yet can sink the biggest carrier. The US has 12 aircraft carriers, it is worth having the subs ram them to take them out. Small subs are too low value to nuke. The US is following the WW2 German blitzkrieg strategy. Hit them hard, hit them fast and hope they surrender. The problem is China is too big for this to work. The length of US supply lines and the numbers of Chinese troops rule out a land invasion. They will rapidly be in the position the UK is in with Libya, we run out missiles. After that comes the production war. The Chinese have all the factories and all the engineers. Advantage China.

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My apologies for the oversight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country#Numbers_of_aircraft_carriers_operated

The US currently has 11 and the BRICs have 3 between them and are building another two. I think my point that the US has overwhelming military dominance and is unlikely to be challenged in the near future.

but,this isn't necessarily about hardware.

one $300000 soviet anti balistic missile is quite capable of taking out a $3,000,000,000 aircraft carrier complete with several multi-million dollar aircraft on board.

and in terms of asymmetric warfare,the game is certainly to provoke financial "instability and irregularity" by cyber means...so the yanks are quite right to expect that hack-attacks are going to become frequent.

as for overall military dominance,they might be superior tagainst one individual country,but it could be a different ball game with multiple combined military(ie russia +iran+syria+iraq+libya+etc)..

...which is why we need to keep a combined NATO rather than split into different factions........whereas the italians and germans now seem to want an EU which is independent of NATO.....that'd be a serious error of judgement in my book.(the EU needs to get real)

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Aircraft carriers are getting more dated and vulnerable in their present form, but they were always intended more for force projection than withstanding direct attack, protected mostly through combined naval/air arms and distance. Aircraft carriers are still viable, but there would eventually be a next generation of aircraft carrier that would presumably have a smaller profile and geared around mostly launching drones.

China cannot be invaded so easily and are a formidable force, but it still seems very, very unlikely they could invade North America either. I still wouldn't underestimate Russia, it today seems to be merely a somewhat more downsized, inefficient USSR. The Russians have commenced on regenerating their armed forces in the last 18 months.

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Aircraft carriers are still viable, but there would eventually be a next generation of aircraft carrier that would presumably have a smaller profile and geared around mostly launching drones.

The next Gen carrier is the even bigger Ford class carrier...

Interestingly I read a theory the other day that about the Chinese J-20. That its massive size it is designed around the Yakhont missile a 3 ton ship killer with a 300km range if fired at high altitude.

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Chinese military spending is on the increase why US spending is declining. History teaches us that the dominant military power is the dominant economic power. There are many in the US military who think the sooner the US and China have a conflict the better it would be for the US.

That's an interesting and worrying thought! Makes perfect sense too of course.

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That's an interesting and worrying thought! Makes perfect sense too of course.

Thats the thing while the USA may 'win' it may well be pyrrhic victory as the CCP leadership knows that going after the carriers is going to be number 1 priority and suicidal blitz attacks may occur.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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