Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
stuckmojo

Telegraph - House Prices Falling Faster In Uk Than In Spain

Recommended Posts

After a shit start of the day with the Ass hole Brown IMF news, here's a piece of candy.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010007/house-prices-are-falling-faster-in-britain-than-spain/

House prices: dropping fast

House prices at the bottom end of the market are now falling faster in Britain than Spain, according to a comprehensive survey of the biggest house price indices.

But house prices continue to rise at the top end of the market, with an average increase of 3.4pc over the last year among the most expensive fifth of properties. By contrast, the cheapest fifth of properties saw prices fall by 5.1pc over the year, compared to a 1.9pc decline over the same period in Spain.

Estate agents Chesterton Humberts base their analysis on a ‘poll of polls’, using figures from the Communities and Local Government House Price Index; the Land Registry House Price Index; the Halifax House Price Index; the Nationwide House Price Index and other sources including Rightmove.co.uk House Price IndexHome.co.uk Asking Price Index.

While there are good reasons to be wary of individual surveys, this approach – combining figures derived from Stamp Duty tax receipts with statistics from the biggest mortgage lenders – probably benefits from ‘the wisdom of crowds’ to give a fair picture of what is happening across the market.

It suggests that house prices are 11.1pc lower than when house prices peaked in February 2008, meaning that in just over two years the average property in England and Wales has fallen in value by £21,700. Robert Bartlett, chief executive of Chesterton Humberts said: “The increasing disparity between property at the top and bottom ends of the market reflects the divide between property prices in London and the South East and the rest of the country. Until the effects of economic recovery filter further out into the country, we will continue to suffer from the effects of this stagnant, disparate market.

“Mortgage availability remains the sticking point to kick starting the housing market but there are now clear signs that the banks are opening back up for sensible mortgage lending. Providing rates remain low and the spread between the UK base rate and mortgage rates narrow then we remain optimistic that the second half of 2011 and early 2012 will mark the start of a sustained recovery in house prices.”

David Hollingworth of London & Country mortgage brokers was more cautious: “Mortgage availability remains an issue in the current market as does consumer uncertainty regarding employment and interest rate outlook. That could constrain the mainstream market more than the top end where cash buyers may be more prevalent.

“Once the market returns to a more even keel then you would expect activity to increase more generally to address the current divergence, particularly as first time buyers begin to find the situation easing and in turn opening up the transaction chain. “

By contrast, Melanie Bien, director of mortgage broker Private Finance, predicts that a two-tier housing market is here to stay: “The top-end of the housing market is thriving as buyers are less reliant on mortgage finance. Many are cash buyers, from the UK and overseas.

“At the bottom end of the housing market, lower values do not mean it is easier to get a mortgage. Quite the contrary; buyers are likely to be trying to get on the housing ladder for the first time and therefore have little in the way of a deposit. For those with just 10 per cent of the purchase price to put down, there are fewer deals to choose from. Rates are higher, while credit scoring tougher, than for those with bigger deposits.

“It is hard to see this situation changing in the short or medium term. Prices at the higher end continue to rise as these properties remain extremely desirable. Demand shows no sign of falling. While lenders are offering more products at 90 per cent LTV, it still remains extremely difficult to qualify for such a deal, and once interest rates start rising, rates will become even more unaffordable.”

Last October, I pointed out in this space how the top and bottom ends of the housing market were diverging, with prices in the capital continuing to rise despite falls elsewhere. This is creating a ‘Manhattan-on-Thames’ effect where younger residents are priced out of property ownership, unless they are extremely rich. Evidence of the widening gap between generations of Londoners can be seen in research by Key Retirement Solutions, which found that people aged over 65 now own more than 16 per cent of all the housing wealth in the capital.

That’s nearly 60 per cent higher than the proportion of local property wealth owned by pensioners in the North West and more than treble the respective proportions in Yorkshire & Humberside; Wales and the North East. Who can blame many younger people for devoutly wishing that house prices will crash?

Not quite 100% right, but the message is changing

Edited to try and fix the link but not really succeeded with a stone-age browser

Edited by stuckmojo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, very interesting.

( There is some problem with your link. This works: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010007/house-prices-are-falling-faster-in-britain-than-spain/ )

And this site was included amongst the "tags", just below the article.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The statistics they are using seem to be very questionable. Only an 11.1% drop from 08?

The sooner UK house prices return to a sensible ratio v income the better. There is no way the economy will recover if housing drains £ out of the real economy.

There is no alternative to this, as interest rates rise prices will fall. 30%+ nominal falls will be required to get the UK back on stable path to growth. This should be welcomed not feared.

The EA quoted is clearly a moron. The main cause of our economic problems is house prices themselves and the debt / servicing costs that are required to sustain them. The economy will not recover properly until prices fall.

Edited by mattyfc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The top-end of the housing market is thriving as buyers are less reliant on mortgage finance. Many are cash buyers, from the UK and overseas.

How do people get this sort of money? Even if you bought two or three houses over the last twenty years, seen a quadrupling in value and paid off the bulk of the mortgage , wouldn't you still need some sort of mortgage to buy your next property? OK, you may have a very hefty deposit, but any higher end purchase will require some more money. I can't believe that many people, a fifth of the market), have the cash/other investments ready to make such massive purchases. There are only so many banker bonuses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nobody knowns how how much prices have fallen as no statistics are kept of actual sales prices. The only figures published are from Tinsa, which are asking prices - twenty percent can be a close guess to deduct to get an idea of the situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The statistics they are using seem to be very questionable. Only an 11.1% drop from 08?

Don't forget to factor in three years inflation.This would double the fall in real terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The statistics they are using seem to be very questionable. Only an 11.1% drop from 08?

The sooner UK house prices return to a sensible ratio v income the better. There is no way the economy will recover if housing drains £ out of the real economy.

There is no alternative to this, as interest rates rise prices will fall. 30%+ nominal falls will be required to get the UK back on stable path to growth. This should be welcomed not feared.

The EA quoted is clearly a moron. The main cause of our economic problems is house prices themselves and the debt / servicing costs that are required to sustain them. The economy will not recover properly until prices fall.

They are going to have to fall further than first thought as now wages are being squeezed, who knows how far wages are going to be depressed over the next few years, Lenders will be calculating this into their lending critieria.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After a shit start of the day with the Cyclops Brown IMF news, here's a piece of candy.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010007/house-prices-are-falling-faster-in-britain-than-spain/

Not quite 100% right, but the message is changing

Edited to try and fix the link but not really succeeded with a stone-age browser

Whatever you think about Gordon Brown, mocking anyone's disability is offensive and weakens your argument.

Courtesy (often nowadays confused with respect, which has to be earned) strengthens your case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The statistics they are using seem to be very questionable. Only an 11.1% drop from 08?

The sooner UK house prices return to a sensible ratio v income the better. There is no way the economy will recover if housing drains £ out of the real economy.

There is no alternative to this, as interest rates rise prices will fall. 30%+ nominal falls will be required to get the UK back on stable path to growth. This should be welcomed not feared.

The EA quoted is clearly a moron. The main cause of our economic problems is house prices themselves and the debt / servicing costs that are required to sustain them. The economy will not recover properly until prices fall.

House prices seem to be a political play thing now and I think we will see wage inflation before house price deflation. This will give us back the 4 X salary average houses but not at the expense of the indebted, savers are and will pay for the indebted as this seems to be government policy – rescue the feckless at all costs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever you think about Gordon Brown, mocking anyone's disability is offensive and weakens your argument.

Courtesy (often nowadays confused with respect, which has to be earned) strengthens your case.

Point taken. I agree actually.

I'm editing my initial post and will now refer to him as "asshole" instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever you think about Gordon Brown, mocking anyone's disability is offensive and weakens your argument.

Courtesy (often nowadays confused with respect, which has to be earned) strengthens your case.

Totally agree, it's not his fault he was born economically dyslexic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices seem to be a political play thing now and I think we will see wage inflation before house price deflation. This will give us back the 4 X salary average houses but not at the expense of the indebted, savers are and will pay for the indebted as this seems to be government policy – rescue the feckless at all costs.

problem is - most savers, ie over 60s with cash on deposit, and lots of it, did very well out of the property boom, so it is not unfair at all to take this back via low interest rates on their savings

as to the younger generations - they need to grow some balls and invest more carefully in inflation-protection; inflation-proof cash savings is no more a human right than ever-rising property prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strange to have an article title comparing UK prices to Spain and then not mentioning the Spanish market at all in the content

The DT headline writers did not actually read the article? DT seems to go downhill by the day, increasing desperation due to falling circulation no doubt. “http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/mar/11/february-abcs-the-times”

The sooner the Spanish realise high house prices cripple the real economy and debt enslave (literally in the case of Spain!) the population. Can’t see too much future demand for housing when half the population is having their wages garnished to pay for a house that was repossessed a decade before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're nowhere close to Spain in terms of falls! Its interesting to use property-bee on the overseas section, you see the kind of plummeting prices we all hope for but are yet to see..... I'm becoming more disillutioned by the day : (

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-22325123.html?premiumA=true

€59,500

MASSIVE PRICE REDUCTION! REDUCED FROM 150,000 EUROS Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

History

date event

13 April 2011

* Brief Description changed: MASSIVE PRICE REDUCTION! REDUCED FROM 150,000 EUROS Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

* Price changed: from '€62,000' to '€59,500'

23 October 2010

* Price changed: from '€69,500' to '€62,000'

08 October 2010

* Status changed: from 'Premium Listing' to 'Available'

08 May 2010

* Price changed: from '€79,500' to '€69,500'

24 November 2009

* Brief Description changed: FINAL MASSIVE PRICE REDUCTION! Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

* Price changed: from '€85,000' to '€79,500'

* Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Premium Listing'

03 July 2009

* Brief Description changed: MASSIVE FINAL PRICE REDUCTION! Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

18 May 2009

* Brief Description changed: FINAL MASSIVE PRICE REDUCTION! Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

24 April 2009

* Price changed: from '€99,000' to '€85,000'

06 February 2009

* Brief Description changed: 4,000 EUROS CASH BACK OFFER ON THIS PROPERTY! Terms and conditions apply (see full details). FINAL PRICE REDUCTION! Charming house on two floors in a very traditional, typically Spanish hamlet. Very peaceful and tranquil location. Only 10 minutes from the coast of Almayate and approx 30 minutes from Málaga airport.

* Price changed: from '€125,000' to '€99,000'

19 September 2008

* Title changed: Andalucía, Andalusia, Málaga, Almayate

13 August 2008

* Initial entry found.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

problem is - most savers, ie over 60s with cash on deposit, and lots of it, did very well out of the property boom, so it is not unfair at all to take this back via low interest rates on their savings

as to the younger generations - they need to grow some balls and invest more carefully in inflation-protection; inflation-proof cash savings is no more a human right than ever-rising property prices

The elderly only did well out of it if they got out of it or if they had it in the first place. As for younger generations I’m struggling to find a decent savings rate that matches inflation with minimal chance of loss and I haven’t got enough savings to make it worth investing in much else as there seems to be a buy in for most things. I hadn’t heard of NS&I until they were closed and it was mentioned on here but I’m learning fast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as to the younger generations - they need to grow some balls and invest more carefully in inflation-protection; inflation-proof cash savings is no more a human right than ever-rising property prices

No, they don't (or at least shouldn't have to). It is completely immoral to have a system where you savings are eroded without having to keep putting effort in trying to keep them safe. If you want to actually gain from them tthen you're right, but you shouldn't have to run just to stay still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, they don't (or at least shouldn't have to). It is completely immoral to have a system where you savings are eroded without having to keep putting effort in trying to keep them safe. If you want to actually gain from them tthen you're right, but you shouldn't have to run just to stay still.

It annoys me somewhat that people keep having to jump hurdles and go through hoops to get even a below inflation rate that they market/advertise as 'high' and to top it they have the cheek to tax some of the higher rates that have restrictions, terms and conditions, musts and must not, to boot....the complacent and apathetic savers take the hit hard...makes you wonder if the vigilant and savvy are only able, if they can be bothered with the admin and research get the rates they get because of the ones that are losing big time.

....like many things in life these days, have to keep one step ahead of the game ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It annoys me somewhat that people keep having to jump hurdles and go through hoops to get even a below inflation rate that they market/advertise as 'high' and to top it they have the cheek to tax some of the higher rates that have restrictions, terms and conditions, musts and must not, to boot....the complacent and apathetic savers take the hit hard...makes you wonder if the vigilant and savvy are only able, if they can be bothered with the admin and research get the rates they get because of the ones that are losing big time.

....like many things in life these days, have to keep one step ahead of the game ;)

Flood the market with massive amounts of varying products/services/price plans/terms and conditions and many people will end up in the least beneficial for them but the most profitable for the company.

I think i read somewhere that people were on a mobile tariff £200 more expensive than they need to be.

Also same for utilities. i want electricity to come down the line and into my house to power my lights and stuff and to pay the least i can for it.

Why should this product which has absolutely no variance in quality have so many differing pricing options? To confuse people into overpaying for it, that's why.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
<br />The statistics they are using seem to be very questionable. Only an 11.1% drop from 08?<br /><br />The sooner UK house prices return to a sensible ratio v income the better. There is no way the economy will recover if housing drains £ out of the real economy.<br /><br />There is no alternative to this, as interest rates rise prices will fall. 30%+ nominal falls will be required to get the UK back on stable path to growth. This should be welcomed not feared. <br /><br />The EA quoted is clearly a moron. The main cause of our economic problems is house prices themselves and the debt / servicing costs that are required to sustain them. The economy will not recover properly until prices fall.<br />

Correct!

Every rise in interest that Bankers collect is EXPONENTIAL - therefore they will manipulate the population and sub-vert Govt every way they can to force up houseprices - to screw us!

They secretly own EA's with which they manipulated the housing market, talking up the prices in their areas then regional office 'bonus' bankers let loose with lax-lending practices.

The en-tyre blame has been shifted onto the buyers who just wanted to buy and put a roof over their heads - bankers and corrupt Parliament are 70%+ to blame

As they have bankrupted themselves with their greed - to stop themselves going under again as people default on over-borrowed 'liar loan' mortgages - they subvert the Govt to force the taxpayer to subsidise them & keep house prices high!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.