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Can Germany Leave The Euro ?

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

I have asked myself lately, could Germany leave the Euro and what be the consequences of doing so.

It can and it won't.

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Germany is the Euro, thay cant leave otherwise there would be no Euro. They are also the ones that benefit most from it and are the least likely to ever consider watching the Euro experiment fall apart.

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Germany is the Euro, thay cant leave otherwise there would be no Euro. They are also the ones that benefit most from it and are the least likely to ever consider watching the Euro experiment fall apart.

Yes, as far as I can work out, Germans are made to work until they are 70 or die, whichever comes first, so that they can pay their taxes to the German Govmt so that the German Govmt can give money to other EuroZone countries to allow their citizens to keep buying Mercedes, VWs, Audis & Porsches, so that the Germans can stay in employment until they are 70 or die, which I think is where this started.

The net result is thus:

Germans have a job for life and are well-off but have no fun.

Greeks, Italians and Portugese don't need to go to work, they live in the sun, drive big German cars, and retire early, but die penniless.

The German Govmt eventually owns all the other EuroZone Govmts.

The other Govmts, or stooges, deflect the media attention away from the above by marrying supermodels, harassing their admin staff, hosting riots, making a song & dance out of the next hand-out, telling Germans to give their gold back, hosting Olympics, having Royal weddings, hosting bike races, playing football, broadcasting the Eurovision song contest, setting off volcanoes, changing the climate, breaking oil wells, changing tax breaks, embezzeling expenses, creating Jordan, broadcasting X-factor, ad infinitum.

(yes, I realise some of those examples are not EuroZone ones - I got carried away)

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Germans love to work so they are happy, the southerners love to relax so they are happy, it's a "Win-win" situation!

Yes, as far as I can work out, Germans are made to work until they are 70 or die, whichever comes first, so that they can pay their taxes to the German Govmt so that the German Govmt can give money to other EuroZone countries to allow their citizens to keep buying Mercedes, VWs, Audis & Porsches, so that the Germans can stay in employment until they are 70 or die, which I think is where this started.

The net result is thus:

Germans have a job for life and are well-off but have no fun.

Greeks, Italians and Portugese don't need to go to work, they live in the sun, drive big German cars, and retire early, but die penniless.

The German Govmt eventually owns all the other EuroZone Govmts.

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Wouldn't that give the Eurozone countries the chance to devalue their debt WRT whatever currency the Germans had. If they could do this why wouldn't they.

In any case, without Germany, the Euro would devalue anyway.

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Germans love to work so they are happy, the southerners love to relax so they are happy, it's a "Win-win" situation!

Erm, according to these OECD figures, the Germans work the shortest hours in the industrialised world, apart from the Dutch, while the Greeks, in particular, work some of the longest!

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Germany is the Euro, thay cant leave otherwise there would be no Euro. They are also the ones that benefit most from it and are the least likely to ever consider watching the Euro experiment fall apart.

I think the Euro project will be preserved at all costs; it is obviously of stragetic importance to the very powerful people who run the EU. Practically speaking if Germany was to leave the euro their banks (and French banks) would take a BIG hit. Too many countries owe money to German banks and a huge disruption of the European economy might cause enough defaults to bring down the banks. Bye bye German pension funds and hello big civil unrest in Germany.

It's full political integration or bust.

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Erm, according to these OECD figures, the Germans work the shortest hours in the industrialised world, apart from the Dutch, while the Greeks, in particular, work some of the longest!

Why let facts get in the way off prejudice and national stereotyping? Southern Europeans are lazy, immoral and corrupt; Germans are righteous, restrained and industrious. Just repeat this mantra 50 times a day and eventually you'll be alright.

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Come on, there is a grain of truth in national stereotypes! Of course not everyone fits the stereotype; some English people I know drink more coffee than tea, odd people that they are…

Germans seem to be happier in an organized work environment, even when they are older, while southern Europeans usually can’t wait to leave.

Why let facts get in the way off prejudice and national stereotyping? Southern Europeans are lazy, immoral and corrupt; Germans are righteous, restrained and industrious. Just repeat this mantra 50 times a day and eventually you'll be alright.

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Come on, there is a grain of truth in national stereotypes! Of course not everyone fits the stereotype; some English people I know drink more coffee than tea, odd people that they are…

Germans seem to be happier in an organized work environment, even when they are older, while southern Europeans usually can’t wait to leave.

A grain of truth? Even in opposition to OECD figures? You should stop reading the Daily Mail mate. The picture is always a million times more complicated than the 'national stereotype.'

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Come on, there is a grain of truth in national stereotypes! Of course not everyone fits the stereotype; some English people I know drink more coffee than tea, odd people that they are…

Germans seem to be happier in an organized work environment, even when they are older, while southern Europeans usually can’t wait to leave.

When I started my first job in Germany, working for a very successful medium-sized IT company, the working culture was a bit of an eye-opener for me. Basically, results counted for a lot more than time spent sitting at a desk. The company had a generous flexi-time policy, but even that was stretched, with some employees mooching in at lunchtime and others knocking off at 3:30. However, so long as they produced good work (and there were some exceptionally talented people there) and were available for planned meetings, this was tolerated and even sometimes encouraged by management.

This was a big contrast to my previous UK job, where employees were watched like a hawk to ensure they were at their desks at the proscribed times, but could get away with producing total crap. Edit: Well, perhaps that's a bit of an exaggeration, but working time certainly seemed to count for more than quality did.

Edited by snowflux

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It would be far simpler for Germany to leave the Euro (and probably a fairly easy sell to the German voter) than a rag tag of Med countries leaving piecemeal.

We're back to the old two-tier North/South argument again really.

The point is - German savers need to take the hit for their profligate banksters recycling their cash into developments in Ireland and so on. Either they recap their bust banks themselves directly and accept they were stupid and their banksters are criminals like the rest, or they persist with this silly notion that the Irish, Greek, Portuguese people are the culprits and funnel the money not into their own banks but into Piggy banks instead.

With the latter solution they maintain and in fact enhance political control over the Piggies. i.e. the 'Grosse Deutschland' option and continue to make transfer payments to the poorer Piggies, probably forever. Much like happens within other Nation States.

But if they left the Euro, the DM could revalue upwards, removing much of the problem and the Piggies could default and devalue and go back to their pre-Euro nation state days with all that entails.

It appears the only thing that would trigger this now though is probably resurgent German Nationalism, and that never ends too well for obvious reasons so will likely be discouraged by all means.

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When I started my first job in Germany, working for a very successful medium-sized IT company, the working culture was a bit of an eye-opener for me. Basically, results counted for a lot more than time spent sitting at a desk. The company had a generous flexi-time policy, but even that was stretched, with some employees mooching in at lunchtime and others knocking off at 3:30. However, so long as they produced good work (and there were some exceptionally talented people there) and were available for planned meetings, this was tolerated and even sometimes encouraged by management.

This was a big contrast to my previous UK job, where employees were watched like a hawk to ensure they were at their desks at the proscribed times, but could get away with producing total crap. Edit: Well, perhaps that's a bit of an exaggeration, but working time certainly seemed to count for more than quality did.

Yes I worked for a year in Germany and now a year in Netherlands and the culture most definitely is the work is what's important, if you do it well and properly, then go home.

UK culture of "I did 10 hours today" seems a bit odd once you get used to it considering some who say this spend 9 hours out of that chatting, or surfing the net.

Since working here I feel a lot healthier and my colleagues tend to be bright, happy and on the ball.

As far as Germany leaving the Euro go's they would be mad to, and most educated Germans know this, the Euro lets German industry work with a currency far below it's value for Germany alone which gives them a competitive advantage, and they are heavily invested in the Southern European countries anyway therefore the PIIGS defaulting would do the Germans no favors whatsoever.

Der Spiegal ran a "What if" article a while ago and the conclusion was it would cause an economic crisis if not collapse for Germany.

Why Ditching The Euro Would Be A Bad Idea

(It's in English, and have a look at some of the other articles which wouldn't look out of place in UK papers, or news sites!)

My German friends have said to me if they did split and got the DM back they would put all their money back in Germany to get the rise, then buy assets like crazy before it crashed.

You will always find the media will trot out someone who thinks the Euro is a bad idea and they should return to the DM but then if you search hard enough you'll find people in England who think decimalization was a bad idea.

I just came back from a business trip to Bulgaria and there everyone over 30 seems to lament the passing of communism as they say there was no hardship or poverty before capitalism was introduced.

The fact is in Europe you can drive or get the train a hundred miles or so into a neighboring country and not have to change all your money over (losing part of it in the process) the Euro is a very good idea for both individuals and businesses, something that's lost on the UK, as apart from the odd day tip to France they don't do it that often

Edited by madpenguin

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The fact is when you can drive or get the train a hundred miles or so and not have to change all your money over (losing part of it in the process) the Euro is a very good idea for both individuals and businesses, something that's lost on the UK, as apart from the odd day tip to France they don't do it that often

In theory the logic of the Euro is flawless especially in a single market context. The problem is rigid fiscal policy hasn't been enforced, to make the Euro work everyone has to run a balanced budget, once one nation is fiscally irresponsible others will follow or to be more precise once you allow several fiscally irresponsible nations in by fudging you create your own problems.

We appear to be heading towards a very interesting test where we get to find out what happens in a currency union when a few bankrupt nations default on their debts.

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In theory the logic of the Euro is flawless especially in a single market context. The problem is rigid fiscal policy hasn't been enforced, to make the Euro work everyone has to run a balanced budget, once one nation is fiscally irresponsible others will follow or to be more precise once you allow several fiscally irresponsible nations in by fudging you create your own problems.

We appear to be heading towards a very interesting test where we get to find out what happens in a currency union when a few bankrupt nations default on their debts.

To be honest finance weaves such a tangled web these days it affects everyone, not just countries in the Euro, look at Ireland and the other EU countries where the UK has committed to supply loans if needed, it wasn't done out of the goodness of our hearts but because in the case of default RBS and Lloyds would be either mortally wounded or fail in the case of Ireland.

Similarly if any Eurozone country failed you can bet all kinds of details would come out, Chinese, US, Saudi, Japan you name it, you can bet it wouldn't just be a "Euro" problem.

In the case of Ireland defaulting the biggest losers would be UK banks, Germany second, US after that and so on:

Ireland Bail out

What I find interesting in this graph is the size of the Irish Government debt compared to the size of the debt held by the banks.

Edited by madpenguin

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We appear to be heading towards a very interesting test where we get to find out what happens in a currency union when a few bankrupt nations default on their debts.

We know what happens: with a single currency, the most competitive nation (here, Germany) drives into bankruptcy all the businesses of the less competitive nations. They can't devalue, so they go bust.

Then what happens is either/or, depending on the politics: either the loser countries depopulate, and everyone migrates to where the jobs are (Germany). Or, alternatively, payments are made to the bankrupt countries to keep the jobless population fed/from depopulating.

eg Nova Scotia after 1867 currency union, when it lost all its jobs to Ontario.

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The fact is in Europe you can drive or get the train a hundred miles or so into a neighboring country and not have to change all your money over (losing part of it in the process) the Euro is a very good idea for both individuals and businesses, something that's lost on the UK, as apart from the odd day tip to France they don't do it that often

Of course when the Euro was introduced I noticed a massive collapse in the amount of business that US, Chinese and Japanese businesses did in Europe. They could just not compete with the benefits that the Euro brought to businesses based in Europe. If fact when the Euro was introduced Greek and Portuguese businesses had such benefits that they went on to dominate the world in all sorts of "business."

To businesses the currency is immaterial, businesses will trade in any currency they have to with no concern at all. In the UK and in Continental Europe I have invoiced customers in Euros, USD and Sterling no one has ever make an objection.

The Euro is a political vanity project introduced as part of the process of creating a Federal European Super state. The logic being that if the people all use the same currency they will have a common bond so we can then move onto have common government and then common taxation and spend polices.

Also being one of these Neandathal Brits that does not do it that often unlike you who does it plenty, when I do "do it" as if by magic there are cash points in Europe, amazing, I know for people that only carry cash around like you, my card goes in an Euros come out. Where is the hassle? I do not even get charged commission.

Of course the 50% of youths that are unemployed in Greece or Spain are not rioting or protesting over the fact they have no future they are actually celebrating with joy that when they have to use paper currency it can be used in different countries, but then they dream that they could afford to visit different countries and they will be dreaming for a very long time.

The Euro means so much to the political elite that they are going to sacrifice the hopes and dreams of the millions of southern europeans to ensure that their vanity project survives.

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To be honest finance weaves such a tangled web these days it affects everyone, not just countries in the Euro, look at Ireland and the other EU countries where the UK has committed to supply loans if needed, it wasn't done out of the goodness of our hearts but because in the case of default RBS and Lloyds would be either mortally wounded or fail in the case of Ireland.

Similarly if any Eurozone country failed you can bet all kinds of details would come out, Chinese, US, Saudi, Japan you name it, you can bet it wouldn't just be a "Euro" problem.

In the case of Ireland defaulting the biggest losers would be UK banks, Germany second, US after that and so on:

Ireland Bail out

What I find interesting in this graph is the size of the Irish Government debt compared to the size of the debt held by the banks.

You have misread that graph. The common perception is that the UK banks exposure to Ireland is to the Irish banks, it is not with the exception of Barclays. As the graph says RBS exposure to Ireland is primarily because it owns Ulster Bank and the loans that Ulster bank has made. The same with Lloyds, HBOS had a fantastically bad Irish subsidiary (even by their fantastically bad standards of lending) and Lloyds liabilities come from these loans.

So if Irish banks default then it will be minimal impact on UK banks because it is not their 100% owned subsidiaries that are defaulting. It would be very bad for German and French banks though.

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Of course when the Euro was introduced I noticed a massive collapse in the amount of business that US, Chinese and Japanese businesses did in Europe. They could just not compete with the benefits that the Euro brought to businesses based in Europe. If fact when the Euro was introduced Greek and Portuguese businesses had such benefits that they went on to dominate the world in all sorts of "business."

To businesses the currency is immaterial, businesses will trade in any currency they have to with no concern at all. In the UK and in Continental Europe I have invoiced customers in Euros, USD and Sterling no one has ever make an objection.

The Euro is a political vanity project introduced as part of the process of creating a Federal European Super state. The logic being that if the people all use the same currency they will have a common bond so we can then move onto have common government and then common taxation and spend polices.

Also being one of these Neandathal Brits that does not do it that often unlike you who does it plenty, when I do "do it" as if by magic there are cash points in Europe, amazing, I know for people that only carry cash around like you, my card goes in an Euros come out. Where is the hassle? I do not even get charged commission.

Of course the 50% of youths that are unemployed in Greece or Spain are not rioting or protesting over the fact they have no future they are actually celebrating with joy that when they have to use paper currency it can be used in different countries, but then they dream that they could afford to visit different countries and they will be dreaming for a very long time.

The Euro means so much to the political elite that they are going to sacrifice the hopes and dreams of the millions of southern europeans to ensure that their vanity project survives.

Ok fine, so you hate the Euro and presumably the EU too?, I get that, but don't read any more into my comments than is there, no sarcasm was meant or intended

Strangely the Europeans I speak to and work with don't feel they are operating under some oppressive regime or something that's being forced on them, and most of the Spanish and Greek guys I know view the troubles with their economies as "just one of those things." and they would probably be in the same situation or worse whether they were in or out of the Euro, they have as much control over their governments as we do and are just as exasperated by the problems

Edited by madpenguin

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You have misread that graph. The common perception is that the UK banks exposure to Ireland is to the Irish banks, it is not with the exception of Barclays. As the graph says RBS exposure to Ireland is primarily because it owns Ulster Bank and the loans that Ulster bank has made. The same with Lloyds, HBOS had a fantastically bad Irish subsidiary (even by their fantastically bad standards of lending) and Lloyds liabilities come from these loans.

So if Irish banks default then it will be minimal impact on UK banks because it is not their 100% owned subsidiaries that are defaulting. It would be very bad for German and French banks though.

That being the case why did the UK bother contributing to the bail out, and why did almost every UK news channel at the time mention it as a reason for us helping?

Why did we provide a facility if we didn't need to?

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Ok fine, so you hate the Euro and presumably the EU too?, I get that, but don't read any more into my comments than is there, no sarcasm was meant or intended

Strangely the Europeans I speak to and work with don't feel they are operating under some oppressive regime or something that's being forced on them, and most of the Spanish and Greek guys view the troubles with their economies as "just one of those things." and they would probably be in the same situation or worse whether they were in or out of the Euro, they have as much control over their governments as we do and are just as exasperated by the problems

I do not hate the Euro. It is just a currency, they could use coloured pebbles for all I care.

Your last comment "they have as much control over their governments as we do and are just as exasperated by the problems."

This highlights the issue I have. Irrespective of who is elected in the UK or Individual European countries by the voting populations, they have no real power. The unelected, unaccountable, corrupt, gravy trainers in Brussels are making the decisions. Here over the past month the govt has tried to help rural populations with reducing VAT on fuel, EU says no can do. The UK population does not want Peados, rapists, murderes to have votes, EU say they should be able to vote.

You bet I loathe the EU because at its core it is unaccountable and undemocratic. Baroness Ashton, Rumpy Pumpy - Who voted for them?

It should be EFTA only, that was a good idea.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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