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Fade The Inflation Hysteria

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The whole market seems to be positioned for QE3, if it doesn't happen the correction will be brutal.

Let it correct and use the outcry as the excuse for QE3.

More profit, less blame.

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Let it correct and use the outcry as the excuse for QE3.

More profit, less blame.

So you actually agree we should fade the inflation hysteria now? At the end of the day, it's all about timing.

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I'm sure QE3 will come in some form, but I don't expect it soon. Certainly not for the UK.

My take is that we don't understand just how bad the bad debt is. I see alot of it day to day in my business - it's pretty brutal in the UK, but impossible to know the overall reality because of the Great Coverup.

The central banks may simply be doing their best to fill the hole. I doubt they can do more than that, because negative interest rates eventually push the bad debt back to the surface. Example: last week I spoke with a woman who took out an IO mortgage in 2007, started to build arrears in 2008 owing to bad health, came off fixed in 2010 so her monthly mortgage instalment fell to £160, and yet the arrears continued and came to a head because she couldn't afford to travel for extra work with rising fuel costs and her benefits have been reduced.

Some things go up, some go down, but they all trend together in a decline.

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So you actually agree we should fade the inflation hysteria now? At the end of the day, it's all about timing.

I don't see any need for hysteria.

They are going to and are printing to infinity. Just a fact, doesn't care how you feel about it.

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I don't see any need for hysteria.

They are going to and are printing to infinity. Just a fact, doesn't care how you feel about it.

What do you mean going to, they already are......

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I don't see any need for hysteria.

They are going to and are printing to infinity. Just a fact, doesn't care how you feel about it.

We are discussing if and when QE3 will happen in the US.

I asked you a simple question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

By "market correction" I mean lower stock and commodity prices.

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I asked you a simple question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

No, you didn't.

Edited by Injin

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We are discussing if and when QE3 will happen in the US.

I asked you a simple question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

By "market correction" I mean lower stock and commodity prices.

General Congreve had point about it in another post.

Essentially in the USA QE is paying for the bills right now, if they don't print they go pop, if they do print they still go pop but slightly down the road. Thus they can print or they can print no other options.

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We are discussing if and when QE3 will happen in the US.

I asked you a simple question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

By "market correction" I mean lower stock and commodity prices.

Iirc, QE2 was flagged at the August '10 meeting. i.e. after the April-July (and then 3 wk August) correction.

I think waiting and getting long if it comes to pass is prob. a better trade. Sort of ties in with my thread on Gavyn Davies' blog on the IMF report today too I think. i.e. If they hold back on tightening in the US and China due to getting the view on output gaps wrong, then the subsequent tightening in 2013 could have a very nasty impact on asset prices. At that point it's difficult to see where they go from there (more printy printy notwithstanding).

Edit: Is the CRB correlated with asset purchases or with the dollar? Or is the dollar correlated with the asset purchases/QE. I don't think it matters particularly - one could equally substitute the Euro or the Yen and get a very similar result. (Dollar is inversely related to CRB obviously, whilst the other currencies are positively correlated)

http://stockcharts.c...id=p25817202134

In other words, the CRB hasn't moved especially, except relative to the USD, which of course has been falling since June/July 10 and BB's signalling of further asset purchases at the August Jackson Hole mtg. (iirc)

Edited by Red Karma

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They are going to and are printing to infinity. Just a fact, doesn't care how you feel about it.

They have to try... it's the slowest and least painful way to get the real debt down. Inflation can last years and months, and the sheeple can be sold any story and believe it. Until they riot that is.

The soverign debts (ie the banker's debts passed on to the soverign states passed on to the people) could be defaulted on in 1 hour flat, but that would cause an immediate financial system shutdown.

So they (the banksters with their puppet hands up the asses of the politicians) will force inflation until the politicians realise that they have to choose between their bankster owners, or getting lynched on lamp-posts in trafalgar square. The banksters versus the people - with the politicians in the middle.

That will be the day of reckoning, and that will be the day that the banksters will have a neatly arranged 'reset' button - new currencies (or singular), crashing the price of pm's etc, and the politicans will be mighty grateful to their overlords once again. And then the circle begins again.

This has nothing to do with correlations with this or that.. they key to it all is to predict base survival instincts as everyone gets pushed towards the precipice, and plan based on that.

Ultimately, the politicans have to get rid of the debt.. and inflation is the only way at their current levels. Deflation is not politically expedient, and will cause wars and social breakdown far faster. No politican wants that on their watch.

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Given you aren't paying nay attention to what even you yourself write, is there any point?

Injin, maybe my previous post wasn't very clear, if so I apologise.

However, now I am asking you the following question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

In other words: can you tell us when you think QE3 will happen?

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Exhibit B — The Money Multiplier [/b]— all that heavy breathing about the flood of liquidity that was going to pour into the system. Hyper-inflation! Except not so much, apparently. As David Rosenberg (who was spot-on in his assessment of the last bogus inflation scare) put it in his Monday note:

Fully 100% of both QEs by the Fed merely was new money printing that ended up sitting idly on commercial bank balance sheets. Money velocity and the money multiplier are stagnant at best.

Is this right. I'd understood that swathes of this cash were handed to the investment arms of these banks who in turn piled into commodities which 'inflated' prices.

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Injin, maybe my previous post wasn't very clear, if so I apologise.

However, now I am asking you the following question: do you think it will take a major market correction for QE3 to happen, or will they go ahead with it even without a correction?

In other words: can you tell us when you think QE3 will happen?

I have absolutely no idea.

I wasn't aware QE1 has finished, tbh.

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Is this right. I'd understood that swathes of this cash were handed to the investment arms of these banks who in turn piled into commodities which 'inflated' prices.

and is pretty redundant as far as worrying about it unless you are unfortunate enough to be on the breadline, you dont have to worry until you get the multiplication factor. It aint happening "yet", i dont believe it will, the hyperwyperinflationationistas think it will

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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A great piece.the graph comparing the CRB index with fed UST purchase programme has to be seen to be believed.No QE3 and I'd look out below if I was sat on some high rolling miners.

Indeed. Also I'd imagine copper and other 'stuff', ETFs and so on.

Btw, great post Pedro! thanks for the charts.

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I have absolutely no idea.

I thought so.

Unfortunately, predictions without a timeframe are not of great value, IMHO.

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I thought so.

Unfortunately, predictions without a timeframe are not of great value, IMHO.

I'm not here to be useful.

Just to point out the obvious.

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Yes, that's why you've asked me 4 qualifying questions to see if I was.

I just wanted to help you increase your deliberately non useful post count :P

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and is pretty redundant as far as worrying about it unless you are unfortunate enough to be on the breadline, you dont have to worry until you get the multiplication factor. It aint happening "yet", i dont believe it will, the hyperwyperinflationationistas think it will

And yet the bags of rice that I buy has doubled and diesel about 50% more expensive. Not hyperinflation I grant you - but to say that there has been none of that money flooding into commodities as the 100% money has sat idly on the banks balance sheets is a little bit, you know, inaccurate surely?

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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