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Uk Employment Increases

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For December 2010 to February 2011:

The employment rate was 70.7 per cent and there were 29.23 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 7.8 per cent and there were 2.48 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 23.2 per cent and there were 9.30 million inactive people aged from 16 to 64.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.0 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.2 per cent on a year earlier.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the claimant count) increased by 700

between February and March 2011

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0411.pdf

Employment up by 70k 29.16 to 29.23 Million. Surprising , only 330k off the peak in 2008 now.

Ammunition for the hawks on the MPC I think.

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Why has the claimant count increased increased and unemployment decreased?

I would hazard a guess at two reasons. The reasons why people in employment can increase yet the claimant count increase is 1) new immigrants or immigrants that can not claim benefits (less than 2 years NI) getting jobs and people that had lots of savings that were made unemployed and so did not bother to sign on at the dole office got jobs.

Then the people being made redundant are at the low savings low wage level (so have to sign on) are being replaced by immigrant labour or better skilled labour that was previously unemployed.

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Is it seasonally adjusted?

because you have things like new deal etc... remember once your on new deal you are not counted, normally 1.5 or 2 years later which would mean drop in unemployment rate since its peak in 2009/2010.

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Annual earnings growth (including bonuses) at Feb 2011 – three month average vs year previously:

Whole Economy               +2.0%Private Sector              +1.9%Public Sector               +2.3%Services                    +2.3%Manufacturing               +1.2%Construction                -1.4%Finance & Business Services +4.5%Wholesaling, Retailing,Hotels & Restaurants        +0.4%

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Why has the claimant count increased increased and unemployment decreased?

Possibly a rising rate of churn. More hiring + more firing balances out, but means more people workless for short periods and eligible to claim.

Could be healthy: shakeout of purposeless jobs, more productive jobs. But I'd be more optimistic about that if it followed real cuts in public spending.

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Is it seasonally adjusted?

Yes I think so, doesn't make much sense really. 70k jobs created yet unemployment only falls 17000. The number of “economically inactive” moves around every month and makes the ILO % figure very hard to compare m/m.

Looks like those on the claimant count are not those getting jobs. Probably getting flooded by migrants from the EU?

Edit: This seems to be what is happening.

The number of UK born people in employment (not seasonally adjusted) was 25.30 million in the

three months to December 2010, up 39,000 on a year earlier. The number of non-UK born people in

employment (not seasonally adjusted) was 3.89 million, up 173,000 from a year earlier.

Claimant count fall from last month has also been revised to -8.5k from -10k as well.

Edited by mattyfc

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Annual earnings growth (including bonuses) at Feb 2011 – three month average vs year previously:

Whole Economy           	+2.0%Private Sector              +1.9%Public Sector           	+2.3%Services                    +2.3%Manufacturing           	+1.2%Construction                -1.4%Finance & Business Services +4.5%Wholesaling, Retailing,Hotels & Restaurants        +0.4%
Finance & Business Services +4.5%

Osborne's 'rebalancing' going swimmingly then.

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Osborne's 'rebalancing' going swimmingly then.

It is in fact.

If you read the detail then the number employed by the public sector is down 132k on the year, it is now only 5.9 million employed in the public sector. Whereas total number of people in the workforce has increased by 300K over the year. So the private sector is creating jobs at 4x the rate that the public sector is shedding staff.

Boys doing good.

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Also what is very stark in the detail is that the new jobs are being taken by men and all the redundancies seem to be women.

Full time employed men has increase in numbers every month for the last 14 months. Full time employed women has fallen in number every month for the last 9 months.

I wonder if this is the reaction to maternity leave and private sector employees being wary of employing women of child bearing age.

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The unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 20.4 per cent of the economically active

population in the three months to February 2011, up 0.1 percentage point from the three months to

November 2010. There were 963,000 unemployed 16 to 24 year olds in the three months to

February 2011, up 12,000 from the three months to November 2010.

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The unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 20.4 per cent of the economically active

population in the three months to February 2011, up 0.1 percentage point from the three months to

November 2010. There were 963,000 unemployed 16 to 24 year olds in the three months to

February 2011, up 12,000 from the three months to November 2010.

So we should hit 1 million economically inaction 16 to 24yo around June just in time for the next batch of school and university leavers...... nice :rolleyes: There was a big splash about this in The Times today........

Edited by skomer

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I wonder if this is the reaction to maternity leave and private sector employees being wary of employing women of child bearing age.

You assert figures with confidence. I'm not disputing them, but where are they from?

As regards the men vs women thing, could this perhaps be nothing more than a reversion to the mean after the era of Harfwit's money-is-no-object social engineering?

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From Reuters:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/uk-britain-jobless-idUKTRE73C19U20110413

There were other signs of improvement in the labour market, with the number of people in employment rising by 143,000 in the three months to February. The ONS said the improvement was driven by the biggest rise in people in full-time employment since May 2007.

This data tallies up with the PMI and other survey data showing considerable strength. As soon as sentiment catches up with reality IR will rise.

Also explanation for the claimant count from the WSJ:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260271192380668.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

An ONS official said the increase in the claimant count was largely due to changes to benefit rules for lone-parent income support, which led to more women claiming a government allowance for job seekers.

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You assert figures with confidence. I'm not disputing them, but where are they from?

As regards the men vs women thing, could this perhaps be nothing more than a reversion to the mean after the era of Harfwit's money-is-no-object social engineering?

page two of the report linked in the first post for the summary. The detail is in the tables at the back.

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So we should hit 1 million economically inaction 16 to 24yo around June just in time for the next batch of school and university leavers...... nice :rolleyes: There was a big splash about this in The Times today........

The number of unemployed 16 to 17 year olds increased by 14,000 on the quarter to reach 218,000

but the number of unemployed 18 to 24 year olds fell by 2,000 on the quarter to reach 745,000.

How do we have 218k unemployed 16-17 year olds? Do that many people leave school early? Employment for those who leave school after 18 seems to be improving very slowly.

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It is in fact.

If you read the detail then the number employed by the public sector is down 132k on the year, it is now only 5.9 million employed in the public sector. Whereas total number of people in the workforce has increased by 300K over the year. So the private sector is creating jobs at 4x the rate that the public sector is shedding staff.

Boys doing good.

Rebalancing the economy away from financial services.

Wages are rising fastest in that sector which suggests a return to business as usual.

The criminals creaming even more off the top.

Moving a few people who work in the public sector into the same jobs provided by his private sector chums is immaterial (unless you believe all that 'free market' nonsense of course, which I'm aware most of the people on here lovingly and blindingly do).

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Why has the claimant count increased increased and unemployment decreased?

Having read the report the explanation is that the unemployment figures are based on the age group 16 to 64. Whereas the total employment figures are not based on age i.e they include all the over 64's that are working. I assume they do this because over 64's can not claim unemployment benefits they get a pension but can still work and seem to be working in every increasing numbers.

Edited by ralphmalph

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Rebalancing the economy away from financial services.

Wages are rising fastest in that sector which suggests a return to business as usual.

The criminals creaming even more off the top.

Moving a few people who work in the public sector into the same jobs provided by his private sector chums is immaterial (unless you believe all that 'free market' nonsense of course, which I'm aware most of the people on here lovingly and blindingly do).

I suggest you read the report in full then you can comment based nn fact not what you want to believe.

Employment of bankers is one of a few sectors, construction being another that has seen a reduction in employment over the past year and was still contacting this quarter. Yes, there are less bankers being employed in the UK now than before and is this not what you want a rebalancing from banking to productive employment.

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With the retail prices index rising so much faster than wages, real earnings are steadily falling. We’re now back at 2004 levels, and it won’t take much to get us back to 2001.

RealEarnings0211.gif

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As regards the men vs women thing, could this perhaps be nothing more than a reversion to the mean after the era of Harfwit's money-is-no-object social engineering?

Chris Grayling on R5L at the moment has said that it is basically because they are moving single mothers off Income support to Jobseekers because they have been told to get a job.

Nasty Tory's.

Edited by ralphmalph

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With the retail prices index rising so much faster than wages, real earnings are steadily falling. We're now back at 2004 levels, and it won't take much to get us back to 2001.

Comments in other threads suggest that HPs are back to 2004 levels across much of the country as well. Hi ho.

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