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DownsizingDiva

Is This The Beginning Of The "fear" Phase?

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I am looking to buy within a 10 mile radius of Winchester, and this one has just popped up on Propertybee:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17496882.html

Please don't slate me if the link doesn't work properly, as I'm not very good at this.

Just in case it doesn't, it's a SIX bedroom, detached house which came onto the market in November at £299,950, was reduced in January to £289,950, then again in March to £275,000. Now they are saying it's £250,000 "for a limited time only".

My first thoughts were, "for a limited time only at £250,000 - then we will reduce it again..."

These people are obviously very keen to sell - pity most of the other sellers in the Winchester area aren't...

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denial fear anger bargaining acceptance

I think we are about to hit the denial stage properly...

I suspect tax credit reductions are going to be the thing that takes credit for bringing this whole thing forward.

Up until now we've had twinges of denial and fear but nothing widespread. The sheeple have been immune.

Now tax credits are being removed (and how people will scream that on 40k a year they need their tax credits) we'll start to see the denial ramping up to a crescendo.

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I'm curious to hear when fellow HPCers think "the bottom" will be? (I'm taking it for granted that there will be a crash, followed by a bottom, followed by the next bubble!!) I'm thinking 2013-14?

Thinking about the nation beyond the bankers' paradise that is London of course.

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I'm curious to hear when fellow HPCers think "the bottom" will be? (I'm taking it for granted that there will be a crash, followed by a bottom, followed by the next bubble!!) I'm thinking 2013-14?

Thinking about the nation beyond the bankers' paradise that is London of course.

That's probably about right, give or take a year or three.

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That's probably about right, give or take a year or three.

I believe the bottom will be long lasting, as it was at the end of the last bubble. The next bubble can't start until the suckers drawn into the previous one have been replaced by new ponzi fodder who were too young to remember it. Edited by Giordano Bruno

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A little more expensive than the one in the OP, but I've been keeping an eye on how quickly they're dropping the price on this one near me.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17999103.html?premiumA=true

Have seen a few that are reducing the price quite rapidly recently, but things still seem pretty overpriced to me.

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I believe the bottom will be long lasting, as it was at the end of the last bubble. The next bubble can't start until the suckers drawn into the previous one have been replaced by new ponzi fodder who were too young to remember it.

That's exactly my take. There is no need to worry about "when to buy", the bottom will be long and drawn out and even when prices are on the floor there will still be desperate sellers who will undercut even those lows.

Stand aside and watch.

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That's exactly my take. There is no need to worry about "when to buy", the bottom will be long and drawn out and even when prices are on the floor there will still be desperate sellers who will undercut even those lows.

Stand aside and watch.

still 5 years ago imho, lasting for 5 to 10 years after...

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I believe the bottom will be long lasting, as it was at the end of the last bubble. The next bubble can't start until the suckers drawn into the previous one have been replaced by new ponzi fodder who were too young to remember it.

Yes

I remember those who got burnt last time . One guy I worked with was £33 k in NE on a flat he paid £64k for in 1988. But due to pay rises ( which were high in the last crash ) and interest rates dropping by 1992/93 his mortgage had got very easy to pay. He sold up borrowed £30k from in laws and bought a 3 bed semi for somewhere in the mid £50'sk. His new smaller mortgage and paying back the loan was about the same % of take home pay that his first mortgage had been.

This time around those that took 4x / 5x salary loans are not going to be seeing the burden of those debts reducing as their pay rises . They will not be able to borrow 50% of the original mortgage to pay NE and move onto a bigger cheaper house.

When we were at the bottom last time around IR were high , reducing them kick started the market , this time they are already low and can only go one way.

The bottom this time around will be much longer than last time due to the above.

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Silly comment maybe, but even at 250,000 its a fantasy but someone might be prepared to push that high

I am looking to buy within a 10 mile radius of Winchester, and this one has just popped up on Propertybee:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17496882.html

Please don't slate me if the link doesn't work properly, as I'm not very good at this.

Just in case it doesn't, it's a SIX bedroom, detached house which came onto the market in November at £299,950, was reduced in January to £289,950, then again in March to £275,000. Now they are saying it's £250,000 "for a limited time only".

My first thoughts were, "for a limited time only at £250,000 - then we will reduce it again..."

These people are obviously very keen to sell - pity most of the other sellers in the Winchester area aren't...

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That's exactly my take. There is no need to worry about "when to buy", the bottom will be long and drawn out and even when prices are on the floor there will still be desperate sellers who will undercut even those lows.

Stand aside and watch.

It's interesting to watch which properties are reduced and which remain unchanged despite months (maybe years) of being on the market. As a buyer, I won't even consider viewing properties which have been on the market for more than 3 months without a price reduction. Those folks just don't need to sell.

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I live about 2 miles from that house, altho I dont know it..

I wouldnt consider it WINCHESTER as that is much dearer than here .

Winchester is a nice town but v expensive , my only connection is my weekly

beer night happens there .

This is one of the cheaper areas around , and we were eager to move ,

maybe 20 yrs ago, but couldnt find anywhere that was the right sort of size ,

and an affordable/sensible incremental price . So here we are today :(

I retired maybe 12 yrs ago, but the traffic into eastleigh in the morning rush hour was

bad ... dont think it would be any better today , but I dont know.

That house has obviously been muchos extended , and if you are considering it, then

I would take a look at the floor plans to ensure that the extension has not given any oddities.

cheers,

rockhopper

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I am looking to buy within a 10 mile radius of Winchester, and this one has just popped up on Propertybee:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17496882.html

Please don't slate me if the link doesn't work properly, as I'm not very good at this.

Just in case it doesn't, it's a SIX bedroom, detached house which came onto the market in November at £299,950, was reduced in January to £289,950, then again in March to £275,000. Now they are saying it's £250,000 "for a limited time only".

My first thoughts were, "for a limited time only at £250,000 - then we will reduce it again..."

These people are obviously very keen to sell - pity most of the other sellers in the Winchester area aren't...

its worth £75 000

But i would only pay half that much

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£250K for a six bed house in the south sounds good value. But it is unlikely all of the rooms will be used, it's a niche market this one is aimed at. In todays world, working families are unlikely to have six+ children! Renting it out to a council tenant might better (yes those big families you hear about in the Daily Mail).

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There was a thread called welcome to the fear phase some time ago where a lot of people insisted the fear phase had already begun.

It's tough to judge a fear phase because it is a change in sentiment, not necessarily a change in prices.

Round my way if you talk to people involved in selling houses most I would say most are concerned. "We cannot sell it" is a common response. Talked to a few others who were in chains and going nowhere. Concerned though, not afraid and certainly not motivated. EA's appear motivated, but not desperate. That may change soon though as Feb volumes were appalling and if March and April volumes go the same I reckon there's going to be an EA bloodbath.

Of course sentiment varies wildly depending on where you are in the country. I am sure that in some places we are already out of the fear phase and prices are dropping substantially. In others such as London prices still seem to be going upwards. It's clear from the house price stats that are compiled that there is significant variety in HPI across the country, and whether or not we are in a fear phase depends on location can only be judged by careful analysis of the local market.

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There was a thread called welcome to the fear phase some time ago where a lot of people insisted the fear phase had already begun.

It's tough to judge a fear phase because it is a change in sentiment, not necessarily a change in prices.

Round my way if you talk to people involved in selling houses most I would say most are concerned. "We cannot sell it" is a common response. Talked to a few others who were in chains and going nowhere. Concerned though, not afraid and certainly not motivated. EA's appear motivated, but not desperate. That may change soon though as Feb volumes were appalling and if March and April volumes go the same I reckon there's going to be an EA bloodbath.

Of course sentiment varies wildly depending on where you are in the country. I am sure that in some places we are already out of the fear phase and prices are dropping substantially. In others such as London prices still seem to be going upwards. It's clear from the house price stats that are compiled that there is significant variety in HPI across the country, and whether or not we are in a fear phase depends on location can only be judged by careful analysis of the local market.

Is there not also developing a different HPI for different types of property? It seems (outwith London) that flats and terraced houses are falling faster and are appearing more in auctions, than say more expensive semis and detached suburban houses.

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Bottom is now. Flat prices for another 10 years or so and then another takeoff. Gov and BoE won't let house prices to go down any more, at least not too much. They actions are clear, they can't let it happen.

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Bottom is now. Flat prices for another 10 years or so and then another takeoff. Gov and BoE won't let house prices to go down any more, at least not too much. They actions are clear, they can't let it happen.

Perhaps not much more in terms of nominal falls, but in real terms with general inflation running quite high...

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Is there not also developing a different HPI for different types of property? It seems (outwith London) that flats and terraced houses are falling faster and are appearing more in auctions, than say more expensive semis and detached suburban houses.

Agreed.

Can't help but feel though that this one is going to be long and drawn out, as the other poster suggests.

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There was a thread called welcome to the fear phase some time ago where a lot of people insisted the fear phase had already begun.

It's tough to judge a fear phase because it is a change in sentiment, not necessarily a change in prices.

I would say it was a pretty good call :-)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=147716

I was judging the start of the fear phase to occur when the bull trap rolled over, looks pretty convincing so far, however we need some pretty good falls over the next 6 months to hold to the standard investment cycle.

abb9c577.jpg

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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