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Bulls Have Been Calling The Soft Landing Every Year Since 2002.

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To predict a 'soft landing' in 2002/3 was plausible enough. To do it in 2008 when the horrible truth was staring you in the face shows a total disconnect from reality. By that time the dogs in the street knew we had been in a massive bubbble and that the credit tap had just been turned off.

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It's SHTF time, for real now.

Expect to see real pressure on the coalition in May/June as the economy goes belly-up. I suspect this was why Dave was so keen to try and topple the Colonel, as he knows things are about to disintegrate at home - he wanted a snap election on the back of deposing Gaddafy.

I'm again w/o work, but I'm not too bothered on my account. No car to insure, no status to maintain, no expensive holidays to pay off. But I suspect there are going to be a few million more than a little agitated this year. Interesting times. A fall in house prices will be the least of it.

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In the interests of balance and fairness, we Bears have been calling the HPC every year since at least 2004 with similar accuracy.

Yes that is occasionally mentioned by the bulls. :lol:

Which is why the soft landing predictions are so interesting. :D

Because ultimately the Crash happened.

The soft landing? Never is a long time to wait innit.

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Looks like it's turning into a "depends where you live" thread

So far in the South East it has been a soft landing and so far the bulls have been right on that front.

Yes there was a crash in 2008 but it bounced and only a few were affected. Right now prices are only about 10% down since the 2007 peak - so not much blood on the streets yet.

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2008

The indexes dropped 20 percent. Most excellent.

Before the crash, one thing that was pointed out on here was our housing market either boomed or crashed, with a lull before taking off again. So why should we have a soft landing at a "permanently high plateau"?

Given the sick state off the housing market and the second leg down having started, I make that Soft landing theorists 0, HPC 1.

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and the second leg down having started

Well yes, it's going to be quite frightening now. Even if you haven't lost your job, you'll have a relative or friend who has. Perhaps they were a librarian, or a painter who's been laid off as their company lost the council or hospital contract. One thing to gamble on overpaying for a house, believing that prices will soon rise again. Quite another when it's obvious that prices are going to plunge, and besides there's a risk your job could disappear.

My prediction for house prices is looking quite poor now. Funnily I thought it was the strongest of my predictions; it's now looking the weakest.

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Looks like it's turning into a "depends where you live" thread

So far in the South East it has been a soft landing and so far the bulls have been right on that front.

Yes there was a crash in 2008 but it bounced and only a few were affected. Right now prices are only about 10% down since the 2007 peak - so not much blood on the streets yet.

Inconvenient thread goes "not up my street" shocker.

You almost never see that happen.

Prices only fell 14% or so in the 90's crash.

10% is actually a nice fat number.

Factor in the fact that average prices are indeed average, and at the moment are rather heavily skewed by the failing FTB end of the market, and theres probably more blood on the streets than some want to admit.

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Expect to see real pressure on the coalition in May/June as the economy goes belly-up. I suspect this was why Dave was so keen to try and topple the Colonel, as he knows things are about to disintegrate at home - he wanted a snap election on the back of deposing Gaddafy.

Unlikely, the coalition agreement forbits "snap" elections. It's the full 5 years. The LibDems insisted on this clause because they knew that at the first sign of their popularity going up the Tories would call an election and kick the LDs out of power.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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