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Lloyds Banking Group is reviewing how its closely watched Halifax house price index is calculated, amid concern that the high number of different monthly measures can add to volatility and confuse sentiment in the market.

The move comes ahead of findings next month from a government report into housing market statistics.

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Halifax is one of the key measures of house price movement. The share prices of housebuilders were affected last year when it highlighted a 3.7 per cent fall in September values, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1983. This was seen as a statistical blip, as it was then followed by a bounce of almost 2 per cent.

Lloyds is undertaking a review of how it calculates the index, which is based on mortgage approvals made by Halifax. It is understood the bank hopes to iron out irregularities and volatility in the index.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f6ba16a-6208-11e0-8ee4-00144feab49a.html#axzz1J07DAfCd

Maybe the can make it so it falls less...

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Perish the thought that one of the largest UK banks, that holds a lot of the UK mortgages on its balance sheets, wants to have a have vested interest in maintaining the asset values that backs these mortgages! It's a good thing that their in house indexes, are not peer reviewed or independently audited (it may be?)

Edited by Money Spinner

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Lloyds Banking Group is reviewing how its closely watched Halifax house price index is calculated, amid concern that the high number of different monthly measures can add to volatility and confuse
sentiment
in the market.

They know that sheeple can be manipulated and sentiment is what drives the market.

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All they have to do is ignore sales below £175,000, and double count anything above £250,000.

Job done, I'll take my £5m consultancy fee.

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they need a man a van going round changing the price tickets on houses.

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This is priceless. Its a shame they didnt think to do this when prices were shooting up so they stopped people ramping prices, oh, and some sensible lending would have been good too.

The banks must be desperate to think of doing this...this should be illegal...probably under...serious fraud.

Anyone with any money in this bank should remove it immediately Dont support any company that would do this.

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With the Land Registry values always being published and not being fiddled, they will show a wider separation and hopefully people will ignore the VI banking measures when they are clearly disconnected from reality.

Its desperation and asset protection. Fake statement showing concern about blips causing share price problems for builders. It happens in every other market but we don't fiddle figures to 'smooth it out'. That would be market manipulation.

As far as serious fraud. Probably not. But I wonder if there is a case for false advertising and misselling. If you bought a mortgage from them based on advice of published figures that were later proved to be unrealistic and 'modified'.

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With the Land Registry values always being published and not being fiddled, they will show a wider separation and hopefully people will ignore the VI banking measures when they are clearly disconnected from reality.

Its desperation and asset protection. Fake statement showing concern about blips causing share price problems for builders. It happens in every other market but we don't fiddle figures to 'smooth it out'. That would be market manipulation.

As far as serious fraud. Probably not. But I wonder if there is a case for false advertising and misselling. If you bought a mortgage from them based on advice of published figures that were later proved to be unrealistic and 'modified'.

Actually, It's dead easy to fiddle the land registry figures. EAs can hold back low value sales for a few months, whilst filing the high value ones immediately, or vice versa depending on what they wish to achieve. Of course it all comes out in the wash, but the figures can be massaged, short term, to support a "spring bounce" for instance.

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Has this been ok'd with Osborne and his team? Because if it becomes clear, as it should do, that all governments of the past 30 years have conspired with the financial sector to pump up prices on one of the most fundamental necessities of life then they'lll be toast. All of 'em.

Needless to say it will turn out that the calculations were basically 'correct' after all.

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But the LR are also not totally accurate as they exclude repossessions. They also take no account of lease extensions either eg flat 100k with 50 years on the lease, extension costs 30k, then sold for 135k, increase is 30% on LR figures but 'real' increase is 3%. They would argue that you can't cover everything but leased flats are very common in London, 70% of sales? and London has the highest HPI, are they connected?

Fair point I forgot that about LR. It is a joke. Weren't they going to change that though?

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So, we have the former UK head of Spanish bank, Santander, and former member of the Court of the Bank of England being appointed to run Lloyds in the run up to it being sold off. Before the ink is dry on his contract he's changing the way they report price changes on asset prices for one of the biggest parts of their balance sheet.

Hmmmm..........Spanish, house prices, BoE, 'smooth volatility', coming share sale........

I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation. :lol:

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<br />Has this been ok'd with Osborne and his team? Because if it becomes clear, as it should do, that all governments of the past 30 years have conspired with the financial sector to pump up prices on one of the most fundamental necessities of life then they'lll be toast. All of 'em. <br /><br />Needless to say it will turn out that the calculations were basically 'correct' after all.<br />

Correct - in conjunction with the City since early 70's they have encouraged house buying with Tax refunds and other bribes (Thatcher cheap sell-offs) cos the more people they locked into bricks and mortar the higher they let HP's get with lax lending - which gets the bankers exponentially rising interest returns.

Money for nothing - tricks for free! Low house prices are NOT in the City Devils 'interest'

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It means that thier methods cannot cope with the very small number of sales right now. It also suggests that they do not see them growing in number anytime soon! If it makes it more accurate, it can only be a good thing.

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Don't see how making drops not seem so severe will help people spend money they aren't being lent. There's plenty of people dumb enough to buy if the money is lent, these aren't the people looking at these indices anyway. More than anything this just makes them look stupid.

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The market has been flat lately. For all concerned, EAs, mortgage brokers, builders, banks etc hate flat markets. It does not create a sense of urgency, they don't want your deposit/STR fund to sit there growing.

They need bidding wars, fees to be generated! "Motion creates emotion!"

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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