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Realistbear

Oil Approaches $124

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-close-124-gold-new-high-tele-3161095756.html?x=0

9:43, Friday 8 April 2011
Oil climbed close to
$124 a barrel
on Friday after attacks on Libyan oil fields reignited worries about supply and inflation fears pushed gold to a new record high.
Brent crude was up $1.07 at a fresh two-and-a-half-year high of $123.75 in early trading in London.
Rising oil, metal and food prices have stoked inflation in economies around the globe and created concerns that it will damage the fragile economic recovery.

My FSENX fund is up almost 18% in the last couple of months and that is too high. IMO Oil will peak at $137 and something WILL give.

Edited by Realistbear

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And yet RB thinks that shops are suddenly going to lower prices if people stop buying things. There is no room to lower prices for many shops. Insolvency will be the way forward. Spare capacity that the BOE go on about is complete rubbish.

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And yet RB thinks that shops are suddenly going to lower prices if people stop buying things. There is no room to lower prices for many shops. Insolvency will be the way forward. Spare capacity that the BOE go on about is complete rubbish.

+1. They'll still be bleating about their stupid output gap when bread is £100 a loaf.

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It's not just oil. Silver just broke $40 and gold is above $1460 (sorry RB).

I just revalued my silverholdings and you are right--its way up. Mostly in silver coins (US Morgans--uncirculated 1978c's going for over £40!!!!). Tempted to cash in but eBay is the best marketplace at present due to frenzied bidding wars on nice silver coins....and imagine the work invoved!

It will not last--everything is heading up too fast. My energy shares are already up 18% this year and if oil gets anywhere near $180 the profits will be obscene which tells me it may be time to sell.

The EZ canot afford IR any higher than they were, the PIIGs won't pay higher frates and the masses of unemployed will not be helped nether will house prices in Spain.

Disaster abot to happen IMO.

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And yet RB thinks that shops are suddenly going to lower prices if people stop buying things. There is no room to lower prices for many shops. Insolvency will be the way forward. Spare capacity that the BOE go on about is complete rubbish.

You are referring to a Gloomberg article reporting that shop prices fell last month. As you will see, it was our good friend Scott who wrote the article. I also had nothing to do with that survey but I think the person who wrote the article was basing it on some data.

Have to be careful not to attribute authorship of posted articles to the one who posts them on here! Easy mistake to be made in frenzied times I suppose. Just to remind you, here is the article (by Scott--not me!):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-05/u-k-shop-price-inflation-slows-in-march-as-bank-of-england-holds-meeting.html

U.K. Shop-Price Inflation Slows in March as Bank of England Holds Meeting
By Scott Hamilton - Apr 6, 2011 12:01 AM GMT+0100

Unless wages rise to meet higher prices people won't buy as much. I am not buying as much.

Edited by Realistbear

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Im not worried, the oil price has no effect whatsoever on the profitablitiy of firms, consumer demand or share prices.

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Still on course for global hyperinflation.

Too many ******ing cretins think that you can change reality by convincing people into not expecting things. I suggest they all jump in a river and expect to breathe air at the bottom of it.

Edited by Injin

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I just revalued my silverholdings and you are right--its way up. Mostly in silver coins (US Morgans--uncirculated 1978c's going for over £40!!!!). Tempted to cash in but eBay is the best marketplace at present due to frenzied bidding wars on nice silver coins....and imagine the work invoved!

It will not last--everything is heading up too fast. My energy shares are already up 18% this year and if oil gets anywhere near $180 the profits will be obscene which tells me it may be time to sell.

The EZ canot afford IR any higher than they were, the PIIGs won't pay higher frates and the masses of unemployed will not be helped nether will house prices in Spain.

Disaster abot to happen IMO.

How Hyperinflation Will Happen In America 1/7.

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Has there ever been global hyperinflation? *

*No--don't answer it--I am just kidding. ;)

Every fiat system has hyperinflated.

This is the first global fiat system.

Do you have any reasons to think it's different this time?

Feel free to answer that, but please don't be irrelevent or post dipshit articles about something tangential.

Edited by Injin

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Im not worried, the oil price has no effect whatsoever on the profitablitiy of firms, consumer demand or share prices.

Congratulations. Please take your chair at the MPC..

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And yet RB thinks that shops are suddenly going to lower prices if people stop buying things. There is no room to lower prices for many shops. Insolvency will be the way forward. Spare capacity that the BOE go on about is complete rubbish.

+1 again

The spare capacity the BoE talk about was largely the marginal high cost (older) production capacity that firms have decided to ditch permanently as it was losing them money and they couldn't see it any other way. The BoE and MPC are severely lacking depth in micro economics with Andrew Sentance being the only relevant one on the MPC - he understands the "spare" capacity is mostly dead and buried

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I should be exchanging contracts next week and it may just be the right time to be switching cash into a roof over my head.

Its all going to come to grief this side of summer IMO. Peak oil leads to nasty recessions and we still haven't recovered from the last one. I see a helicopter flying overhead and there is a sputtering sound as it tries to gain altitude...................

If Japan does not recover quickly from its 9.1 and if QE2 fails to kickstart the US economy its all over and the black hole will suck whatever inflation is left into a very deep abyss.

Global demand failing (excluding the super rich Arabs and Russina Mafia), overcapacity, oil $124 and soaring, frenzied investing in oil stocks and metals, sovereign debt crisis worsening, Arab states revolting.....

Not a good blend for economic growth IMO. Perhaps what lies behind the seemingly irrational statement by Bill Gross recently about buying back into US treasuries.

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Every fiat system has hyperinflated.

This is the first global fiat system.

Do you have any reasons to think it's different this time?

Feel free to answer that, but please don't be irrelevent or post dipshit articles about something tangential.

Every system is fiat. As the polticos say "let me be clear about this...." all things have a fiat or ascribed value--the market determines the value. Paper money has a value based on the GDP that supports it. When a country no longer has a GDP its currency becomes worthless.

Its no different this time--the cycle goes on and on like an ever spinning wheel and not unlike the windmills of your mind.

Has there ever been global hperinflation?

Edited by Realistbear

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I should be exchanging contracts next week and it may just be the right time to be switching cash into a roof over my head.

Way too early RB... http://www.businessinsider.com/how-hyperinflation-will-happen-in-america-2010-9#now-heres-how-to-profit-7

Like Rothschild said, “Buy when there’s blood on the streets.” The thing to do to prepare for hyperinflation would be to invest in a diversified hard-metal basket before the event—no equities, no ETF’s, no derivatives. If and when hyperinflation happens, and things get bad (and I mean really bad), take that hard-metal basket and—right in the teeth of the crisis—buy residential property, as well as equities in long-lasting industries; mining, pharma and chemicals especially, but no value-added companies, like tech, aerospace or industrials. The reason is, at the peak of hyperinflation, the most valuable assets will be dirt-cheap—especially equities—especially real estate.

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I tend to agree. But-the house I am buying was on at the peak at £324k and my offer of £200k was accepted last month. It sold in June 2002 for £189k and the present owners upgraded it a lot. So I am essentially buying at 2002 prices which is not too bad.

I am tired of waiting, living in small rented accomdation and the house I am buying has drop-dead views and a location to die for. The seller got an almost as good deal on the gaff she is buying because that person lives in OZ and has panicked.

I can see prices overall dropping by at least another 15% from where they are today--unless, of course wages move up and inflation kills everything other than bricks and mortar to serve as a roof over the head and NOT as a speculative investment.

Edited by Realistbear

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I tend to agree. But-the house I am buying was on at the peak at £324k and my offer of £200k was accepted last month. It sold in June 2002 for £189k and the present owners upgraded it a lot. So I am essentially buying at 2002 prices which is not too bad.

I am tired of waiting, living in small rented accomdation and the house I am buying a drop-dead views and a location to die for. The seller got an almost as good deal on the gaff she is buying because that person lives in OZ and has panicked.

I can see prices overall dropping by at least another 15% from where they are today--unless,, of course wages move up and inflation kills vereythng other than bricks and mortar to serve as a roof over the head and NOT as a speculative investment.

Pls post a link after you've exchanged. Good luck with it.

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Every system is fiat. As the polticos say "let me be clear about this...." all things have a fiat or ascribed value--the market determines the value. Paper money has a value based on the GDP that supports it. When a country no longer has a GDP its currency becomes worthless.

Its no different this time--the cycle goes on and on like an ever spinning wheel and not unlike the windmills of your mind.

Has there ever been global hperinflation?

wrong, paper money has value when the population can keep up with loans secured on their labours....

You could have a rising GDP and no productive work worth anything...A la Soviet Union.

In a hyperinflation, things of value provide wealth...ie, a productive farm, the power to defend yourself and food/water stocks.

Look for severe property taxes from desperate governments and empty shops unable to pay for the next delivery from todays takings.

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Every system is fiat.

meaningless without context.

As the polticos say "let me be clear about this...." all things have a fiat or ascribed value--the market determines the value. Paper money has a value based on the GDP that supports it. When a country no longer has a GDP its currency becomes worthless.

Fiat means forced, decreed. Market means "refusal is possible" they are opposites.

Paper money has value because people point guns at you and tell what you will trade for it (or else go to prison.) In a market you get to refuse offers made to you without getting attacked afterwards.

Its no different this time--the cycle goes on and on like an ever spinning wheel and not unlike the windmills of your mind.

Has there ever been global hperinflation?

No. There has neverbeen a global fiat system before. This will be the first (and hopefully last.)

All fiat systems hyperinflate, we now have a global fiat system. It follows logically and rationally that it will hyperinflate. Do you have any cogent reason to think otherwise?

If 500 men jump off a cliff one at a time and fall to their deaths, you need decent reasons to say why they will fly if they all jump at the same time. Lets hear them.

Edited by Injin

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Old FT article from February, Gavyn Davies thought it was "not particularly likely" oil would rise to over $120 per barrel and then stay there for the better part of a full year, if so he thought global growth would be cut by 2%.

FT Linky

With the Nigerian elections looming and a recent acceleration in the price of crude, is June going to be the peak?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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