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Academetrics guess that maybe house prices in march might have possibly fallen by 0.1%

U.K. House Prices Decline as Banks See Government Cuts Restraining Demand

By Scott Hamilton - Apr 8, 2011 12:01 AM GMT+0100

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U.K. house prices fell in March as banks reported weakening demand, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said.

The average price of a home in England and Wales declined 0.1 percent from February to 222,146 pounds ($362,700), the groups estimated in an e-mailed report in London today. From a year earlier, values were unchanged.

Recent housing data have been mixed, with constrained bank lending limiting demand and a lack of housing supply supporting values. The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent yesterday, as the threat to the recovery from the government’s budget squeeze takes precedence over faster-that-targeted inflation.

“There is some evidence to suggest wider housing-market conditions are easing a little,” Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, said in the report. “Lenders are now reporting a lack of demand, which is probably unsurprising given very low consumer confidence and concerns about the impact of forthcoming expenditure cuts, joblessness and taxation rises.”

U.K mortgage approvals gained 4.3 percent to 48,979 last month, the highest level since May, property-appraisal business e.surv Ltd., part of LSL, said in a separate report today. That’s still only about half the average level recorded over the last decade.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY)’s Halifax unit earlier this week reported that home values slipped 0.1 percent in March and said uncertainty over the economy is “likely to constrain housing demand, resulting in some modest downward pressure on prices.” It sees home prices falling 2 percent this year.

London Gain

Out of the 10 regions Acadametrics and LSL track, all apart from London and southeast England posted declines in the past three months compared with a year earlier. Prices in the capital rose 3.7 percent in the period.

“The static national figures conceal a much more dynamic picture in the regions,” said David Newnes, estate agency managing director of LSL. “The north of England and Wales have seen significant price falls. Lenders are especially worried about the effect government spending cuts will have on unemployment in areas where a large proportion of workers are employed by the state, and this is holding back demand.”

The number of transactions rose about 30 percent in March from the previous month, driven by a seasonal upturn and wealthy homebuyers bringing forward purchases valued at more than 1 million pounds to beat an increase in stamp duty this month, Acadametrics and LSL said. From a year earlier, transactions were 6 percent higher.

Acadametrics and LSL combine initial housing transaction data from the U.K. Land Registry and results from other price measures to produce an estimate for the most recent month. That number is then revised in following months.

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The margin for error is probably +2%/ -2% so a fall of 0.1% is meaningless noise.

None of the recent numbers reflect what is going on in the street. Pick a postcode and look at Zoopla for real life drops. I did just that and it made my day as an antidote to VI bovine excreta.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8435983/House-prices-in-London-offset-falls-elsewhere.html

.../
In contrast, Wales has seen prices fall by 2.9pc, and the Humber has seen the biggest fall, of 3.4pc. The counties of Blaenau Gwent and Monmouthshire, in Wales were the biggest losers, with houses losing 11.5pc and 11.8pc of their value respectively.

TMT will be shocked as he hasn't been seeing prices drop in his part of Wales.

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I'm in Colchester in the South-East and watch this area pretty closely - there is abundant evidence here that house prices are slowly falling and little evidence they are rising. Maybe Academetrics mean house prices in areas of the South-East that are commutable distance to London are rising or that only affluent areas in the South-East are rising?

I do suspect academetrics is a load of (rap, especially given who produces this data. On the other hand, I don't know their methodology and have read the posts of some on this site claiming that it is the most comprehensive measure of house prices. I havent seen a proper review of their methodology on this site yet.

Edited by Unsafe As Houses

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8435983/House-prices-in-London-offset-falls-elsewhere.html

.../
In contrast, Wales has seen prices fall by 2.9pc, and the Humber has seen the biggest fall, of 3.4pc. The counties of Blaenau Gwent and Monmouthshire, in Wales were the biggest losers, with houses losing 11.5pc and 11.8pc of their value respectively.

TMT will be shocked as he hasn't been seeing prices drop in his part of Wales.

I monitor Monmouth town and can't say I've been seeing any huge drops, just the usual £3k every 5 months. I imagine it must be out in the sticks where the falls are or the higher end properties.

There isn't much in Monmouthshire to sustain high house prices. The 'top jobs' people will have to commute for. Newport is the nearest commute but it is for of public sector jobs. Hereford is too small to have any of the well paid jobs and Gloucester and Cardiff are quite a distance, so any of the higher paid people will be spending a lot on the commute.

Wales as a whole relies heavily on the public sector, so I am not surprised to see the falls there. As nice as it is there (when it's dry) houses in Wales are surely some of the most overpriced in the country - Although I know some of you in the South East will say they look cheap!!

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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