Halifax Hpi Out Today?

[neil324]

Just speaking to a family member, they heard on the news this morning house prices are up. I tried to get them to state what they meant by up, they couldn't.

Says it all.

[Lepista]

Yawn, the slow downward trend continues. IR need to rise for falls to move faster than the 2-3% yearly nominal we are seeing.

We are seeing a lot larger than 2-3% tearly nominal falls though, as the current annual figure includes some quite positive rises from the dead cat bounce.

The annual falls are in the region of 10% p.a. - hardly a 'slow downward trend trend'.

[Timm]

0.1% huzzah!

Spring bounce...... i don't think so!

If my maths is right (and it's probably not), the NSA figures show:

MoM +0.29%

EDIT: decimal point in wrong place!

Edited April 6, 2011 by Timm

[neil324]

If my maths is right (and it's probably not), the NSA figures show:

MoM +0.29%

EDIT: decimal point in wrong place!

Not adjusted much have they.

[Tenubracon]

Fair play to the BBC - there's nothing obvious on their site about the rise...

It's all gone a bit rampy in the Telegraph, though:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100009945/house-prices-and-hysteria-about-worse-off-wednesday/

Nobody likes paying more tax and so the increases in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and income tax announced last year which take effect today provoked predictable political knockabout, with deficit-denier Ed Balls seizing his chance to bang on about ‘Black Wednesday’. But new figures, which show how well house prices are holding up more than two years after the credit crisis began, may have a bigger impact on millions of homeowners’ personal finances.

According to Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, Halifax, the national average house price actually increased by 0.1pc to £162,912 last month. While this is a trivial change, equivalent to a rounding error, the fact remains that over the last year, house prices fell by less than 3pc.

Despite all the doom and gloom about double dip recessions and all the rest of it, that is a remarkably resilient performance. The obvious explanation is that homebuyers’ mortgage costs remain near historic lows after Bank of England base rate has been frozen at 0.5pc for more than two years.

As a result, many homebuyers actually have more disposable income each month than they had two years ago – and may continue to do so, even after today’s 1pc increase in NICs and other tax changes hit take-home pay. This is also a major reason why mortgage arrears remain much lower than they were in the early 1990s recession, when mortgage rates hit 15pc and 78,000 homes were repossessed in 1991.

Little-reported changes to Stamp Duty in the Budget which take effect today may boost institutional investment in housing and provide further support to the market. Never mind the macroeconomics, the outlook for millions of homebuyers is much brighter today than it was 20 years ago.

Halifax housing expert Martin Ellis said: “House prices continue to fall at a modest pace as measured by the quarterly rate of change, the best measure of the underlying trend in price movements. Prices in the first quarter of 2011 were 0.6pc lower than in the fourth quarter of 2010.

“The overall decrease in prices in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the previous quarter was a little lower than the quarterly falls recorded in the third and fourth quarters of 2010. The recent increase in employment, particularly those in full-time jobs, may have been an important factor supporting the market.

“Our forecast remains for a 2pc decrease in house prices in 2011 as a whole. Uncertainty over the general economic outlook and individual financial circumstances are likely to constrain housing demand, resulting in some modest downward pressure on prices.”

So, fears about ‘worse off Wednesday’ should be balanced by recognition of the fact that low interest rates have helped to preserve the value of many people’s most valuable asset – not to mention helping to keep afloat the businesses which employ them. Low interest rates are no accident but a direct consequence of international money markets’ confidence that Britain is setting out to reduce the record deficit in public finances.

Never mind ‘Wednesday of woe’ and all the other hoo-ha. Homebuyers have more to fear from a terrible Thursday when the Bank of England decides interest rates must go up – which could come as soon as tomorrow.

[Lepista]

As a result, many homebuyers actually have more disposable income each month than they had two years ago

Actually, they have LESS disposable income, but less of it is also required for their mortgage, so they have a higher DISCRETIONARY income.

[Constable]

Fair play to the BBC - there's nothing obvious on their site about the rise...

They've all gone to Starbucks and are crying in their lattes about their costly, depreciating property "investments".

Renting is such fun. And my silver keeps making new highs every day!!

[Bloo Loo]

Actually, they have LESS disposable income, but less of it is also required for their mortgage, so they have a higher DISCRETIONARY income.

unless you are lucky nad are on a Public sector pay scale..

no rise for two years, yet your pay is up 10%.

[Caveat Mortgagor]

The monthly falls this year need to match the monthly falls last year to keep the yoy steady at -2.9% April May and June all showed small falls so if we are flat mom for the these months this year the yoy will improve. We then had two months of rises before the big -3.7% in September. So for the yoy to continue to go down we need on average bigger monthly falls this year than last.

In 2010 we could rely on the fact that 2009 saw some very strong rises so even flat or modestly falling 2010 mom figures had a big impact on the yoy. This won't be the case this year.

You are correct that there was a meaty fall in Sep, thats why I was looking forward as far as August in my initial post as thats when I foresaw the YoY falls peaking for the time being.

I've just spent 15 mins with a pen, some paper and a calculator and worked the following out using the rolling 3 month methodology that Halifax use.

If we have consistent MoM falls of 1% until August, the YoY will climb to 6.4%. Thanks to their methodology, in order to maintain that 6.4% YoY figure after that, Sept would have to have a fall of 0.46%.

I havent worked out anything beyond that because trying to second guess 1 months figures is impossible, it would be foolish to try to do 6+!

Edited April 6, 2011 by Caveat Mortgagor

[Pent Up]

You are correct that there was a meaty fall in Sep, thats why I was looking forward as far as August in my initial post as thats when I foresaw the YoY falls peaking for the time being.

I've just spent 15 mins with a pen, some paper and a calculator and worked the following out using the rolling 3 month methodology that Halifax use.

If we have consistent MoM falls of 1% until August, the YoY will climb to 6.4%. Thanks to their methodology, in order to maintain that 6.4% YoY figure after that, Sept would have to have a fall of 0.46%.

Consistent 1% mom falls are a lot to ask though. Hopefully we will start to see something like that soon.

[Bloo Loo]

You are correct that there was a meaty fall in Sep, thats why I was looking forward as far as August in my initial post as thats when I foresaw the YoY falls peaking for the time being.

I've just spent 15 mins with a pen, some paper and a calculator and worked the following out using the rolling 3 month methodology that Halifax use.

If we have consistent MoM falls of 1% until August, the YoY will climb to 6.4%. Thanks to their methodology, in order to maintain that 6.4% YoY figure after that, Sept would have to have a fall of 0.46%.

statistics are fine.

All i know is the local builder wants £160K for a "2" bed place, terraced, no drive, no garage and no back garden....the floor plan is the same size as my lounge area.

course, he has a "purchase plan" to help me.

Just nowhere to put my stuff.

[Caveat Mortgagor]

statistics are fine.

All i know is the local builder wants £160K for a "2" bed place, terraced, no drive, no garage and no back garden....the floor plan is the same size as my lounge area.

course, he has a "purchase plan" to help me.

Just nowhere to put my stuff.

I hope he gets burnt!

Edited April 6, 2011 by Caveat Mortgagor

[Tenubracon]

Guardian are quoting the three month 0.6% fall in their headline:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/apr/06/house-prices-fall-halifax

[Dorkins]

Don't let the upper limit on your pay scale crimp your style...

(I had no idea that bog standard teachers got paid so much)

Post-threshold is quite a high rank:

PAY STRUCTURE FOR QUALIFIED TEACHERS 1/9/2010 – 31/8/2011

(OTHER THAN LEADERSHIP GROUP MEMBERS, ASTS AND ETS)

[1st column] England and Wales 1 Sept 2010

[2nd column] Inner London 1 Sept 2010

[3rd column] Outer London 1 Sept 2010

[4th column] Fringe Area

Main Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

M1 21,588 27,000 25,117 22,626

M2 23,295 28,408 26,674 24,331

M3 25,168 29,889 28,325 26,203

M4 27,104 31,446 30,080 28,146

M5 29,240 33,865 32,630 30,278

M6 31,552 36,387 35,116 32,588

Upper Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

U1 34,181 41,497 37,599 35,218

U2 35,447 43,536 38,991 36,483

U3 36,756 45,000 40,433 37,795

[Lepista]

Post-threshold is quite a high rank:

PAY STRUCTURE FOR QUALIFIED TEACHERS 1/9/2010 – 31/8/2011

(OTHER THAN LEADERSHIP GROUP MEMBERS, ASTS AND ETS)

[1st column] England and Wales 1 Sept 2010

[2nd column] Inner London 1 Sept 2010

[3rd column] Outer London 1 Sept 2010

[4th column] Fringe Area

Main Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

M1 21,588 27,000 25,117 22,626

M2 23,295 28,408 26,674 24,331

M3 25,168 29,889 28,325 26,203

M4 27,104 31,446 30,080 28,146

M5 29,240 33,865 32,630 30,278

M6 31,552 36,387 35,116 32,588

Upper Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

U1 34,181 41,497 37,599 35,218

U2 35,447 43,536 38,991 36,483

U3 36,756 45,000 40,433 37,795

Witho9ut wanting to take this thread off-topic, my gripe with these figures is that it does not reflect the true take-homoe pay of a teacher - taking into account all the little "top ups" they get.

It's a bit like saying a salesman's salary is minimum wage, but not showing how much they earn on commission.

I'd like to see a distribution of the "money paid to teachers" in total. i.e. How much money enters their bank account per year? Same goes for any government job - police, nurses, etc.

[Bloo Loo]

Post-threshold is quite a high rank:

PAY STRUCTURE FOR QUALIFIED TEACHERS 1/9/2010 – 31/8/2011

(OTHER THAN LEADERSHIP GROUP MEMBERS, ASTS AND ETS)

[1st column] England and Wales 1 Sept 2010

[2nd column] Inner London 1 Sept 2010

[3rd column] Outer London 1 Sept 2010

[4th column] Fringe Area

Main Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

M1 21,588 27,000 25,117 22,626

M2 23,295 28,408 26,674 24,331

M3 25,168 29,889 28,325 26,203

M4 27,104 31,446 30,080 28,146

M5 29,240 33,865 32,630 30,278

M6 31,552 36,387 35,116 32,588

Upper Pay Scale £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a. £ p.a.

U1 34,181 41,497 37,599 35,218

U2 35,447 43,536 38,991 36,483

U3 36,756 45,000 40,433 37,795

of course, anyone can see that even without a pay "rise" or a recruitment freeze, the wage bill for this one sector is going up 5% a year.

[Lepista]

of course, anyone can see that even without a pay "rise" or a recruitment freeze, the wage bill for this one sector is going up 5% a year.

Are you taking into account those dropping off the end of this conveyor belt, who are replaced by those entering at the bottom?

[Killer Bunny]

Renting is such fun. And my silver keeps making new highs every day!!

Suggest you have a stop on that not far below where we are now.

[equitystasher]

Consistent 1% mom falls are a lot to ask though. Hopefully we will start to see something like that soon.

I am afraid we will not see any significant falls soon.

Aslong as interest rates are held at current levels or close to, all we will see Is a slow, nominal grind down in house prices. The BofE know what higher rates will mean to our highly indebted, consumer economy.

The amount of job losses people are expecting will not come through at the level many are predicting on here and I am afraid the over indebted have been given a life line by the low interest rates and banks reluctance to reposses.

Our only hope is that the BofE is forced to raise rates by the markets and then the proces of rebalance and rebuilding can begin.Until then we will have a standoff between buyers and sellers.

[Timm]

Witho9ut wanting to take this thread off-topic, my gripe with these figures is that it does not reflect the true take-homoe pay of a teacher - taking into account all the little "top ups" they get.

(...)

What top ups?

[Lepista]

What top ups?

Exactly - it's never made clear what those in public service are "entilteld" to. I don't know what they (teachers, police, nurses, etc. get), but might include:

- "head of year" additional allowance;

- "head of department" additional allowance;

- Assembly duties additional allowance;

- An 'allowance' for unsociable hours;

- Sunday working allowance

- Field trip allowance

I just don't know, hence why I would like to see the actual "take home pay" figures for teachers / others, rather than the politically comfortable "basic salary" figures.

none of which are included in the main "salary" figures that are opsted.

[Constable]

Suggest you have a stop on that not far below where we are now.

Thanks for the advice but I hold physical silver for the long term (as an insurance policy). I have a large buffer now and I've no intention of selling.

[Brave New World]

Exactly - it's never made clear what those in public service are "entilteld" to. I don't know what they (teachers, police, nurses, etc. get), but might include:

- "head of year" additional allowance;

- "head of department" additional allowance;

- Assembly duties additional allowance;

- An 'allowance' for unsociable hours;

- Sunday working allowance

- Field trip allowance

I just don't know, hence why I would like to see the actual "take home pay" figures for teachers / others, rather than the politically comfortable "basic salary" figures.

none of which are included in the main "salary" figures that are opsted.

All these things at my old school in the early 90s they used to do for free, for the love of their job, for the love of their sport or hobby they would run after shool clubs, for the love of giving that extra to kids and to their profession.

This culture in the public sector of getting paid extra to do what should be standard in the job breeds this awful vein of 'entitlement' - you are a public servant - just consider the title for a minute. Exactly the same with the nhs (specifically nurses that i hear all about from my wife).

[#1 on West side]

They've all gone to Starbucks and are crying in their lattes about their costly, depreciating property "investments".

Renting is such fun. And my silver keeps making new highs every day!!

I hear you, mate...

Renting a lovely coutry house in Surrey at less than a 50% IO mortgage. No brainer!

Also love the bits of Silver... Bought a few kilo bars for a laugh 5 years ago for £245... selling for a cool £1k at the moment on eBay.

Anyway, enough smugness; just glad that most of us on here can every now and then get the feeling that we might just have done something right...

[Dorkins]

And as for London teachers being paid more for doing the same job that's a joke.

It's not the same job. It's standing in front of a classroom of kids in one of the most expensive cities on the planet. You could try paying teachers in London the same as you do in West Wales, but I'd be interested to see how many stuck around. Builders, plumbers etc are more expensive in London than elsewhere so it's not as if this is confined to the public sector.