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Halifax Hpi Out Today?

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KBR ditto, though we did have a very nice February so can't complain if it's up a bit:

Today, the Halifax Plc. House Price index could support the Pound as month-on-month prices are expected to increase by 0.2% in March, following February's contraction of 0.9%.

http://www.kbrfx.com/daily-market-update/2011/04/05/

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I expect it will be up more than FF forecast due to people rushing through £1million+ purchases before the increase in stamp duty this month.

Going by Halifaxs volatility I'm saying +1.4%

I'd be very happy to be wrong though!

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I admire your persistence, and I'm not having a go, but is Forex Factory ever right?

Forexfactory is reporting the average market expectation, so it is a more a case of if the market is ever right. 0.1 percent up today, so market expectations were roughly correct. Not too bad for peak selling season I guess.

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Apr 01 +1.5%

Apr 02 +0.7%

Apr 03 +0.7%

Apr 04 +1.9%

Apr 05 0.0%

Apr 06 +2.0%

Apr 07 +1.1%

Apr 08 -1.3%

Apr 09 -1.7%

Apr 10 -0.1%

Apr 11 +0.1%

I wonder if the VIs will say this is the biggest Halifax April increase since 2007? :) I would say in response that the last postive April figure was followed by 3 negative April figures :D

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Annual change -2.9%

Quarterly change -0.6%

Monthly change 0.1%

Average Price £162,912

Ah, the monthly figure is positive so the media have something cheerful to lead with, "House prices rose this month according to the Halifax........" ;).

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Ah, the monthly figure is positive so the media have something cheerful to lead with, "House prices rose this month according to the Halifax........" ;).

a 2.9% drop on my rental means my landlord LOST more than the rent received...plus he spent another 5K on new windows and plumbing.

it also means that if you bought a 160K house this time last year with a 70% IO, you LOST and SPENT 1680 LESS than I spent on rent of my 400K rental.

Your equity is down £4640 or nearly 10%.

My equity is UP 2.5% or so.

And I have a double drive, 1.5KM walk to mow the back lawn and countryside views...and 3 built in cupboards in the master bedroom, 6M loung, dining room, 4 Bedrooms, double sized kitchen, shed, laundry house, real fires, large patio and a coal shed.

Sure glad I kept renting.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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YoY falls are going to get interesting. The longer the BoE leaves the rate rise, the scarier the the YoY figure will be for the masses!

Anytime from July to Sept looks like a good time to give the masses bad news. With modest 1% falls for the next few months I reckon we could have -7 or 8% YoY by then!

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YoY falls are going to get interesting. The longer the BoE leaves the rate rise, the scarier the the YoY figure will be for the masses!

Anytime from July to Sept looks like a good time to give the masses bad news. With modest 1% falls for the next few months I reckon we could have -7 or 8% YoY by then!

The falls have to increase in size to keep te yoy falling from now on. 2010 saw pretty much flat prices for Halifax so modest falls will mean the yoy stays modest too.

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And I have a double drive, 1.5KM walk to mow the back lawn and countryside views...and 3 built in cupboards in the master bedroom, 6M loung, dining room, 4 Bedrooms, double sized kitchen, shed, laundry house, real fires, large patio and a coal shed.

Sure glad I kept renting.

Now I know who that stranger is walking round my gaff every day!!!

Sounds just like our place - would cost way over a million to buy round here, renting it for less than 33% of the cost of an IO mortgage (which we'd never get for that amount anyway. Not even close...)

Stuff STILL coming on around here at MORE than 2007 peak prices. Why thank you Strutting, Splodge, and "Bourne Yesterday." At least you're all so out of the ballpark pricewise the Missus just laughs at you, rather than presuuring me :)

B

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a 2.9% drop on my rental means my landlord LOST more than the rent received...plus he spent another 5K on new windows and plumbing.

it also means that if you bought a 160K house this time last year with a 70% IO, you LOST and SPENT 1680 LESS than I spent on rent of my 400K rental.

Your equity is down £4640 or nearly 10%.

My equity is UP 2.5% or so.

And I have a double drive, 1.5KM walk to mow the back lawn and countryside views...and 3 built in cupboards in the master bedroom, 6M loung, dining room, 4 Bedrooms, double sized kitchen, shed, laundry house, real fires, large patio and a coal shed.

Sure glad I kept renting.

Me too, and I've recently extended my rental agreement for another year :D.

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The falls have to increase in size to keep te yoy falling from now on. 2010 saw pretty much flat prices for Halifax so modest falls will mean the yoy stays modest too.

Mar 10 Halifax av price was £168,435

Aug the avg was 168,125.

The base number will fluctuate a little but the overall effect is it will not move over the next 4/5 months. Any fall MoM means the YoY gap will widen - even allowing for the special way Halifax calculate their rolling 3 month average of the Yoy figure.

If we have a few 1% months, (which I dont think is a big ask given the mood of the market of late) we could have a very tasty YoY figure by mid/late summer.

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• Prices in March were 2.9% lower than a year ago as measured by the average for the three months to March against the same period a year earlier.

This is the biggest annual decline since October 2009.

I like

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Mar 10 Halifax av price was £168,435

Aug the avg was 168,125.

The base number will fluctuate a little but the overall effect is it will not move over the next 4/5 months. Any fall MoM means the YoY gap will widen - even allowing for the special way Halifax calculate their rolling 3 month average of the Yoy figure.

If we have a few 1% months, (which I dont think is a big ask given the mood of the market of late) we could have a very tasty YoY figure by mid/late summer.

The monthly falls this year need to match the monthly falls last year to keep the yoy steady at -2.9% April May and June all showed small falls so if we are flat mom for the these months this year the yoy will improve. We then had two months of rises before the big -3.7% in September. So for the yoy to continue to go down we need on average bigger monthly falls this year than last.

In 2010 we could rely on the fact that 2009 saw some very strong rises so even flat or modestly falling 2010 mom figures had a big impact on the yoy. This won't be the case this year.

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  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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