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Uk Economy Faces "worrying Times"

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12962862

The UK faces a fragile economic recovery, with a worrying overall picture, a survey has suggested.

The latest quarterly survey from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said firms faced cashflow constraints.

The survey suggested that in the first quarter the economy returned to growth.

But the BCC said "the upturn in Q1 is likely to have been only slightly larger than the decline of 0.5% seen in Q4 2010", when the severe weather caused disruptions.

That would mean output levels were only "marginally higher" than they were before the weather took its toll, the BCC said.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release its first estimate of GDP for the first quarter on 27 April.

Falling confidence

The survey, which questioned 6,000 businesses across the UK, said firms were being constrained by cashflow and price pressures.

Some 80% of manufacturing firms said the cost of raw materials was putting pressure on them to raise prices.

"Exporting activity remains strong, but there have been sharp declines in confidence, and cashflow is still a real concern for businesses," director general of the BCC, David Frost said.

The BCC's chief economist, David Kern, added that manufacturing still had the potential to drive the UK recovery, "but the international background has become riskier for Britain's exporters, while the domestic austerity plan will intensify pressures on businesses and consumers".

"In addition, the mediocre performance of the service sector will hinder the number of new jobs created this year," he said.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12962862

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release its first estimate of GDP for the first quarter on 27 April.

Falling confidence

Surely a good chance we'll officially be back in recession. There aren't that many signs of serious growth anywhere. Tens of thousands of jobs lost every month. Little evidence of jobs growth. Worrying news that some really big Japanese manufacturers in the UK will have to suspend or curtail production. We're kidding ourselves if we think UK manufacturers have enough latent capacity to pull us out of this.

But it should be good for the house prices innit.

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Surely a good chance we'll officially be back in recession. There aren't that many signs of serious growth anywhere. Tens of thousands of jobs lost every month. Little evidence of jobs growth. Worrying news that some really big Japanese manufacturers in the UK will have to suspend or curtail production. We're kidding ourselves if we think UK manufacturers have enough latent capacity to pull us out of this.

But it should be good for the house prices innit.

We need to print more money - it worked the first time and it can work again.

We need to be bold this time, let's not **** about with piddly sums like £200 billion... let's print big! print for our future. Lets' print the worlds entire GDP . $58 trillion dollars should do it (yes, let's print dollars - I'm sure the Bernanke will let us borrow his dollar.jpg file.)

We can then buy everything and we'll be back where we belong - ruling the waves.

Go Britannia.

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This is nothing but propaganda. This survey includes half of December when the UK was at a standstill.

There is a clear VI agenda to talk down the economy to prevent an early rise in IR. March was the strongest month since 2007 according the PMI data released over the last few days. Manufacturing had its strongest quarter in 17 years, construction is booming. The claimant count was down 10k, and employment is up about 800k in the last 8 months.

The only thing stopping IR rise is confidence which is being systematically attacked by sections of the media determined to prevent an increase.

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This is nothing but propaganda. This survey includes half of December when the UK was at a standstill.

There is a clear VI agenda to talk down the economy to prevent an early rise in IR. March was the strongest month since 2007 according the PMI data released over the last few days. Manufacturing had its strongest quarter in 17 years, construction is booming. The claimant count was down 10k, and employment is up about 800k in the last 8 months.

The only thing stopping IR rise is confidence which is being systematically attacked by sections of the media determined to prevent an increase.

Construction is not booming. A family member has been in construction for 40 years and had plenty of work and in his own words, things right now are 'total sh1t'.

Edited by General Congreve

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Inflation was the primary concern for UK businesses, the BCC's chief economist, David Kern, told the BBC.

He stressed that the Bank of England must not raise interest rates in the coming months, as this would "squeeze the fragile [economic] upturn".

"It is incumbent on the Monetary Policy Committee not to raise rates," he said.

To do so prematurely would be a "massive mistake," he argued.

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Construction is not booming. A family member has been in construction for 40 years and had plenty of work and in his own words, things right now are 'total sh1t'.

Work for a top ten main contractor and we have just had one of our busiest starts to the year in recent times (mainly due to housebuilding in the south... whether this lasts is another matter, but currently, I would agree that construction is bouyant. (Looking to the future, the tender market is not so rosey though). Could be a very different story for smaller contractors / family outfits etc

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Construction is not booming. A family member has been in construction for 40 years and had plenty of work and in his own words, things right now are 'total sh1t'.

PMI for March anybody?

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Work for a top ten main contractor and we have just had one of our busiest starts to the year in recent times (mainly due to housebuilding in the south... whether this lasts is another matter, but currently, I would agree that construction is bouyant. (Looking to the future, the tender market is not so rosey though). Could be a very different story for smaller contractors / family outfits etc

Making the most in converting overpriced landbanks into overpriced housing, cath the wave before it is gone.

One thing that is keeping the smaller contractors busy s that tere are a lot less movers the rungs in the ladder are so far apart the additional debt (and costs) is too much to swallow so many are stayoing put and extending / updating putting on hold any though of moving.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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