Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Alfie Moon

Comparative Tracking Of The Crash

Recommended Posts

Has anyone found the month on month data (Halifax, Nationwide, LR, etc.) of house prices during the 89 - 95 crash? I know there are various graphs around but I think it might be useful to have the stats in tabular form showing how house prices were moving from month to month during that period. This came to mind as it seems (certainly myself included) that people can get rather frustrated at how slowly house prices are falling. It can be alarming when a month records a rise of some kind in house prices. It seems to me that there may even be an expectation in the general population that a 'house price crash' involves house prices dropping at very fast rates (e.g. 5% a month and so on). So, when Joe and Jane Public see reports showing very small falls and the occasional rise in house prices from month to month it is easy for them to be fed the line from VI's that we are experiencing a 'soft landing' or that a crash/correction is going to be avoided altogether. Many are too young or have forgotten that during the last crash the month on month falls were often not very dramatic, and at times prices even went up, but the overall 'drip by drip' effect amounted to a significant 'crash' over time. If a table were created of the monthly stats of house prices during the 89 - 95 crash along with a column for entering the current monthly house price figures (movements) we could compare the rate of the current correction/crash with the previous crash. It might be reassuring for at least some of us to see that the current rate of change is perhaps not so significantly different from previous booms and busts of house prices (if the stats confirm that assertion I've just made). Such a table, if it were part of this website (and brought up to date on a monthly basis as the stats come out), might act as a good basis for countering the spin of the VI's re 'the crash won't/isn't happening'. Having said all this someone will probably point out that such a table already exists!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Has anyone found the month on month data (Halifax, Nationwide, LR, etc.) of house prices during the 89 - 95 crash? I know there are various graphs around but I think it might be useful to have the stats in tabular form showing how house prices were moving from month to month during that period. This came to mind as it seems (certainly myself included) that people can get rather frustrated at how slowly house prices are falling. It can be alarming when a month records a rise of some kind in house prices. It seems to me that there may even be an expectation in the general population that a 'house price crash' involves house prices dropping at very fast rates (e.g. 5% a month and so on). So, when Joe and Jane Public see reports showing very small falls and the occasional rise in house prices from month to month it is easy for them to be fed the line from VI's that we are experiencing a 'soft landing' or that a crash/correction is going to be avoided altogether. Many are too young or have forgotten that during the last crash the month on month falls were often not very dramatic, and at times prices even went up, but the overall 'drip by drip' effect amounted to a significant 'crash' over time. If a table were created of the monthly stats of house prices during the 89 - 95 crash along with a column for entering the current monthly house price figures (movements) we could compare the rate of the current correction/crash with the previous crash. It might be reassuring for at least some of us to see that the current rate of change is perhaps not so significantly different from previous booms and busts of house prices (if the stats confirm that assertion I've just made). Such a table, if it were part of this website (and brought up to date on a monthly basis as the stats come out), might act as a good basis for countering the spin of the VI's re 'the crash won't/isn't happening'. Having said all this someone will probably point out that such a table already exists!

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HistoricalDataSpreadsheet.asp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the HBOS spreadsheet for national seasonal adjusted prices during 89-95 seems to me to show that the price falls per quarter for Gtr London were not all that dramatic (certainly initially) with quarterly decreases of around 2-3% (ie 0.8-1% per month). Even though this rate of fall increased in 1992 (what I would have called the depths of the recession/economic plight) it was only to monthly rates of around 1-1.2% ish. There were even a few (small) quarterly increases early in the downturn. It also showed the other areas of the country increasing while London and parts of SE decreasing (all look familiar now).

Someone please correct me but it looks to me like this data supports what we are seeing now in good parts of London - ie 0.6-0.8% per month drops (giving you an annualised 7-10% drop (without taking inflation of 2-3% into account)). All we need is three years of that and we would, if we looked backwards, have had a 25-30% "crash" in nominal prices. That does not assume any acceleration of decreases etc.

Could someone technical do a chart/table tracking this data against the prevailing interest rates at the time. My recollection is that whilst they were relatively high compared to now the base rates had been high (10% ish) since 1987/1988, remained flattish and by 1990/1991/1992 onwards we were in the beginning of a downward trend in rates (black wednesday excepted). I would like (!) to see that the prices started falling without any interest rates trigger as I do not remember interest rates of themsleves being a trigger at the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.