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How Has Your Views On The Hpc Differed Sicne You Came On Here?

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I've been on these forums now for a number of years...certainly just before things went belly up back in 2007. I've had my eyes opened to how things work in the world of finance and economics to the point where I think these forums have saved me over £50k as I was going to buy in 2007...so glad I didn't :P

How have these forums changed your views? Have they saved you from a lifetime of un-necessary debt?

Edited by subby

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Good question. I was never one of the wideboy EAs who would say anything to get a sale and always thought prices were going up so made sure pressure was on buyers at all times. However, I still have to admit to allowing a few sales pass by because I thought the vendor could hold out for more money in the near future. This was just before the crash in a time when everything seemed rosey and there were multiple buyers for every property. As I mentioned in an early post, I was berated by my colleagues for not buying in the mid 2000s as prices were rapidly rising but I didn't want to risk a huge mortgage in which a change in my circumstances could lead to losing my home. Even as the crash took place I never fully believed it would get so bad and I wasn't persuading vendors to reduce expectations to achieve a sale. That was the worst year of my life in business.

I started reading this forum in late 2008, well into the crash, and I thought most of the comments were way over the top about how bad things could get - some people predicting 50% fall in prices from peak!! Sometimes I felt anger at the comments of those who wanted to see prices crash for their own benefit and didnt care about us poor EAs. I convinced myself that things would get better after a while but the more I read opinions on here and saw them being realised in real life, the more I began to take a reality pill. I now am one of the most realistic people in my line of work which in a way has saved my business as we have realistically priced properties and wont take on anything overpriced at the request of the vendor as it is unsellable. I believe the crash has a bit to go but not as long as some on here. As you can see, my views have changed quite remarkably over the past few years.

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I have become incredibly cynical since I first joined in 2005.

At that point prices had been on a tear for >5 years and a correction was clearly needed.

Every index was shouting 'overvalued', but what was not obvious at the time was the securitization of mortgages and the endless supply of credit this allowed.

Even with that problems were becoming evident.

I though the govt might step in with some tax or other to mitigate a crash.

I remember at the time an associate saying that I was a mug because borrowing was cheap and the govt would step in an prevent a housing crash.

I thought 'they dont have the cash to support the whole housing market'. And I was right. They didnt.

Instead, they printed it up and f*cked my savings as I (and many, many others) moved further away from being able to buy.

Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine the govt would sacrifice the currency, the economy, social mobility and any shred of moral rectitude to keep house prices high.

As long as I live I will never, ever, ever vote for Labour again.

EDIT - Incidentally the 'associate' mentioned above would now be technically bankrupt if the market had been allowed to correct even a little.

Instead he still has a load of property that he cannot sell.

Since the rates fell to 0.5% he has had a massive boost in income and is lording it up once again.

He doesnt care about selling the properties anymore because 'the govt will make house prices rise again'.

Seems as dumb to me as the 2005 comment but at this stage I really dont know anymore.......

I was a mug for being responsible.

I should have been extremely greedy and borrowed way beyond my means.

That much is clear.

Edited by needle

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I have become incredibly cynical since I first joined in 2005.

At that point prices had been on a tear for >5 years and a correction was clearly needed.

Every index was shouting 'overvalued', but what was not obvious at the time was the securitization of mortgages and the endless supply of credit this allowed.

Even with that problems were becoming evident.

I though the govt might step in with some tax or other to mitigate a crash.

I remember at the time an associate saying that I was a mug because borrowing was cheap and the govt would step in an prevent a housing crash.

I thought 'they dont have the cash to support the whole housing market'. And I was right. They didnt.

Instead, they printed it up and f*cked my savings as I (and many, many others) moved further away from being able to buy.

Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine the govt would sacrifice the currency, the economy, social mobility and any shred of moral rectitude to keep house prices high.

As long as I live I will never, ever, ever vote for Labour again.

...//.....

Yup.

A very good friend has been told today that he is going to be made redundant. He took out a MASSIVE mortgage 5 years ago on a poxy shoebox in London. He has 2 litttle kids. Wife works because their monthly mortage payback figure is ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS.

And it is looking very, very scary indeed for him. It looks to me like he's going to lose the property - and be re-possessed and go bust. He works high up in a drinks company - earns c. £100k, and jobs are just not there to step into. He is 51 yrs old.

It is seriously ominous for him - and MILLIONS of others like him across the USA and Europe.

IMHO the Banksters need to be hanged in long rows - in full view of the public. It HAS TO BE DONE. :angry:

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I was a mug for being responsible.

I should have been extremely greedy and borrowed way beyond my means.

That much is clear.

I have been a Bear since I joined but your above point is a good one. We can all slag off bankers for ripping the guts out of the economy and our futures but can we really blame many ordinary folk who saw an opportunity to make quick money. Some made thousands by flipping, picking up £20k here and £60k there etc.

Others went nuts deep into BTL and like those in pyramid schemes, some got in early and knew went to duck out have pocketed heaps of money.

Life is not fair. Yes, some of those who are still holding multiple properties will end up getting burned but others played the game. The game by the way that was legal, encouraged and sponsored by the banks and government.

I have never been involved in BTL and morally believe it to be wrong. It`s not for me but ordinary people were allowed to take huge risks and sometimes benefited with huge rewards.

The system stinks.

Recently I was looking at the paperwork on my first house back in 1995 and instantly thought.. If only I could have afforded to buy another couple at that price :lol: . It`s in us all.

Armed robbers risk life in prison if caught for often, small sums of money. Why bother when a few years ago you could make double bubble with a bit of patience and a few forms from Northern Rock.

Recently I have started to believe that prices will never `Crash`, but they will deflate over a long period of time. Some will win and some will lose.

Life, I suppose.

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In 2007 I was considering renting my home out and buying another house. My reasoning was that I did not want to sell and realise it was a mistake, as I loved my home...so it seemed a good way of going about things and if I wanted I could always just move back in and sell the 2nd house

Sounds naive but actually I am generally quite careful and risk averse, so I started doing some research and typed in house price crash into google, after coming across a prediction of one. This site came up..that was the end of my foray into even just considering buying a 2nd house !

Since then although thankful for that, I have come to believe that ignorance can be bliss, depending on the outcome of ones ignorance...

The more I read the more I find myself becoming disenchanted with the whole system that we find ourselves in, with little hope of it changing in whats left of my lifetime. So I stay risk averse but now even more cynical about what lie ahead for our children.

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How have these forums changed your views?

When I arrived here I had no views - just a suspicion. Like Gin above, I had typed 'housing bubble' into google. Then I spent a few months 'doing my own research'.

When I bought my house in 1993 it was only possible to get a mortgage of 3.5 times my single income. I did a quick calculation using the 2007 Northern Ireland average income figure produced by The Office of National Statistics. One of my first posts here went something like this... "A simple calculation based on the history of house price/earnings ratio shows that house prices may fall by 70%. It is hard to believe. Could this happen?" A few more months of research and I came to the conclusion that the house prices in Northern Ireland would crash by more than 50% and could crash by 70%.

I refined my prediction to this - house prices will drop nominally by 60%-70% in 3-7 years. My view on this prediction has changed slightly - it's not going to happen in 3 years ;) I am still convinced that house prices remain over-priced relative to incomes.

Have they saved you from a lifetime of un-necessary debt?

Yup! B)

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As long as I live I will never, ever, ever vote for Labour again.

Fair enough, but don't spend too long in vain hope before learning the lesson that the Tories and Labour are really no different.

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Sometimes I felt anger at the comments of those who wanted to see prices crash for their own benefit and didnt care about us poor EAs.

This is a discussion forum on a website called HOUSE PRICE CRASH... welcome :P

I'll save my sympathy for people who are in financial difficulty after being sold seriously over-priced houses by EAs for the last 6 or 7 years.

Edited by Belfast Boy

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I started reading this forum in late 2008, well into the crash, and I thought most of the comments were way over the top about how bad things could get - some people predicting 50% fall in prices from peak!! Sometimes I felt anger at the comments of those who wanted to see prices crash for their own benefit and didnt care about us poor EAs. I convinced myself that things would get better after a while but the more I read opinions on here and saw them being realised in real life, the more I began to take a reality pill. I now am one of the most realistic people in my line of work which in a way has saved my business as we have realistically priced properties and wont take on anything overpriced at the request of the vendor as it is unsellable. I believe the crash has a bit to go but not as long as some on here. As you can see, my views have changed quite remarkably over the past few years.

I've always thought the crash would take a long time, with many ups and downs. In 2007 my guess was five years, certainly more severe than the early 1990s.

What's changed for me is realising that the state cushions the fall all the way down + the state is really the central banks. In 2009 I was shocked to find how much the UK pays in welfare (apart from the bank bailouts - hehe!).

I reckon worrying about house prices is pointless. The debtors will suffer a decreasing standard of living until they die. Those who want to buy on reasonable terms will suffer frustration until they buy, and then they'll suffer like their fellow debtors until they die.

Time to shift the emphasis.

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One thing I have defintely learned since posting on HPC..

How powerful banks really are. More powerful than governments. Governments are actually scared shitless of them. They are above the law. They are like a big fat collective of Bullies. The last few years have highlighted how weak our elected MP`s are.

The bank is like a bully who stole your dinner money. They have been caught red handed but do not give a shit and will still spend your dinner money in front of you and care not about public opinion.

Another thing I have learned being on here is that people approach politics in the same way a football supporter follows a team. They are less vocal when the team is performing shite but even after years of terrible results, many will still want to turn up for a cup final (General Election). Madness!!

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Recently I have started to believe that prices will never `Crash`, but they will deflate over a long period of time.

Me too. With minor ups and downs along the way.

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I have been browsing this site for around a year and a half and eventually joined the forum last year.

My views at the time were very much that house prices were on the way down, to what level I did not know. It was not something that concerned me so much at the time because the way I viewed it as a home owner any drops in the value of my home should have been relative to the drops in most other home types and any additional borrowing that may have been required to purchase my next home on the ladder should have pretty much remained the same. I was interested in the topic and what was happening with house prices which led to me finding this site.

I was surprised by just how strongly Bulls, EA's and other fence sitters refused to budge on their continued campaign for higher house prices and could not see (or refused to acknowledge) the impact of house prices on basic standards of living and how this is still heading for a disaster. This for me is actually just as bad as not seeing the 'initial crash' when these same people encouraged abnormally high prices. I endeavour to see things from everyone's point of view but this one just mystifies me. IMHO people do look to EA's for guidance and whilst I appreciate that they have a job to do (sell houses) my own opinion has changed of them as it is embarrassing how they seem to (for the most part) bury their heads in the sand about it all.

I have posted this question a few times in forums and have not yet seen any response to it that has influenced me in any way to understand the view point of Bulls.

Who do High House Prices actually benefit? Why is it still viewed that rising House Prices would be a 'recovery'?

Some answer this by referring to the people who bought during the boom and who are now in negative equity. Fair enough ... they are not in a good position, but at the end of the day the difficulties they find themselves in are due to AFFORDABILITY and not being able to service the debt. Therefore did high house prices help them ... NO. If prices 'recovered' as some would put it to that level then some other poor sod has to try and purchase it at that level and the cycle of misfortune continues. The thing is though that no-one would purchase at those levels again, and even if they would try to the Bank wouldn't lend them the money. At least they seem to have learnt from their mistakes.

My opinions have changed since being on this site. I have since sold my house and currently rent with a plan to buy into the housing market again when we can see clearly what state the economy is in.

My opinion has hardened since joining this site. I believe that a true crash is coming at some point in the next few years, for me it is inevitable because there are too many factors pointing to it. We have seen them slide by approx 50% in Northern Ireland already and that is even with EA's and vendors digging their heels in and fighting all the way. We can see a change in mindset starting to creep in with Surveyors, Banks and we even have a Realistic Estate Agent adding an opinion now in support of 'realistic' pricing. The fact that nothing is selling at present should be a strong enough indicator that a further correction needs to happen ... if it doesnt, then what will be will be ...but EA's and sellers will need to start thinking about the consequences of this should it continue for several more years.

Edited by tinbin

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As long as I live I will never, ever, ever vote for Labour again.

Tories would have done exactly the same.

There is no material difference between any of the major parties.

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Recently I have started to believe that prices will never `Crash`, but they will deflate over a long period of time.

Er, is this the NI section? Where prices have nearly halved?

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Er, is this the NI section? Where prices have nearly halved?

Yep, my error that I did spot after my original post but this question could be relevant to all on hpc.

It`s the way I view the forum. I just click view new content and post away.

Feel like a trespasser now :rolleyes:

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I was surprised by just how strongly Bulls, EA's and other fence sitters refused to budge on their continued campaign for higher house prices and could not see (or refused to acknowledge) the impact of house prices on basic standards of living and how this is still heading for a disaster. This for me is actually just as bad as not seeing the 'initial crash' when these same people encouraged abnormally high prices. I endeavour to see things from everyone's point of view but this one just mystifies me. IMHO people do look to EA's for guidance and whilst I appreciate that they have a job to do (sell houses) my own opinion has changed of them as it is embarrassing how they seem to (for the most part) bury their heads in the sand about it all.

I have posted this question a few times in forums and have not yet seen any response to it that has influenced me in any way to understand the view point of Bulls.

Who do High House Prices actually benefit? Why is it still viewed that rising House Prices would be a 'recovery'?

... the answers are obvious - people with vested interests and money.

The average home owner does not understand that high house prices are a bad thing for them. The vested interests have done a very good job of brain-washing joe public that you cannot lose money with bricks and mortar.

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Don't think it changed my views as such, but I was in confused mode.

This site help clarify things alot and affirm my views that high prices where not sustainable or good for society.

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I'll admit before I found this site I was definitely a housing bull. I hadn't really considered it much but I'm ashamed to say I went along with the Helen Carson masses. That's until I started to earn my own money and realised something was seriously wrong with the housing market here. Listening to FP on nolan confirmed it all, I found this site and haven't looked back. I've saved members of my family thousands. Other ignored my advice and face financial ruin.

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... the answers are obvious - people with vested interests and money.

The average home owner does not understand that high house prices are a bad thing for them. The vested interests have done a very good job of brain-washing joe public that you cannot lose money with bricks and mortar.

True ... but surely an EA has a vested interest in selling houses. They must have record low numbers of sales at present, its all well and fine sugar coating the odd sale here and there but realisitically they shouldnt have a vested interest in trying to sell a house at a price that will receive no interest?

I am convinced that there are willing buyers out there, at the right price.

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Me too. With minor ups and downs along the way.

+1

inflation will play a big part - in the end wage inflation will catch up too

also, such a the masses, that speculators are coming in to the market at every level and at every drop - in my opinion this means that other assets constitute a buying opportunity until, in maybe 10 years time, property speculators finally give up and start piling into tomsething else

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Given that people are complaining about how things are now....and that's before the austerity measures really kick in. There can only be one way to go with property and that's south of rateable value. Good news for first time buyers and a basis for a more stable housing market...well we can all but live in hope eh :)

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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