First Time Buyers Strike!

[Alfie Moon]

Not sure why you would need a UK strike? It is happening in this country already anyway. Did anyone look at the latest transaction volumes and what proportion was made up by first time buyers?

As soon as the Banks started requiring 80%+ LTV to get a good mortgage rate FTB disappeared. Most are in debt and do not have £36k to put as a deposit. Even if they did sentiment is beginning to turn, most people around 30 have friends who bought and are now trapped.

Why risk your money in property which will likely decrease in value as IR increase.

Yes, there is, in effect a First Time Buyers strike going on - as you say look at the ongoing collapse in transactions. There is also, in effect a 'people already on the property ladder' strike going on in that most are currently priced out of being able to move up the ladder.

The point of a (First Time) Buyers strike campaign is really to draw the public attention to these facts and then use the membership (which will always be limited) to create and spread an alternative discourse, or discourses, about the property market and house prices. We can effectively tackle the discourse environment and generate the possibility of the HPC type discourse on house prices being visible and audible to the wider public. We don't have the money and resources that the VI's have but the web is our friend in this matter. We can reach the very large readerships of national and local newspaper websites via the use of the Readers Comments facilities that they provide. We can reach a very large audience, right across the country, without leaving our desks/computers. It doesn't involve any monetary cost and posting Readers Comments, in order to spread the word, takes no more time and effort than posting a comment here on HPC. Whilst it would be futile for us to try and create ourselves as a body spanner in the work - of the economic fundamentals (via a Buyers Strike that makes transactions collapse in the market - although it is already happening in an un-cordinated way) we can effectively challenge the markets discourse environment. We can undermine the discourses produced by the VI's (the Banks, TV Property Programmes, Estate Agents, etc.) and inject new alternative discourses that will challenge the dominant discourses of, for example - rising and booming house prices are good and desirable; prices won't crash, they might dip a bit but won't crash; its always a good time to buy; etc., etc. you know the score on this.

See my previous comments, and the link to the thread I started on Discourse and Action, for a slightly more detailed explanation about the role discourse plays in helping to shape and direct markets, including the property market and house prices.

Imagine if there were 50 or 100 of us posting HPC type informed Readers Comments on all the national newspaper websites every day ... We don't need 500,000 to do something of significance - we can a huge amount with small relatively small numbers.

In the discourse and action thread I point to a couple books for those that want to do more in-depth academic reading about the role of discourse environments and economics, markets, etc.

[NEO72]

Ok, I'll try again without the sarcasm.

2003 - Housepricecrash.co.uk started

2008 - UK house prices turned negative due to some poor Americans defaulting 18 months earlier on mortgages they should never have been given

You don't need to convince me about the powers of marketing to persuade people to buy crap; I've watched a Formula 1 race.

However, let's not try to re-write history and pretend that HPC.co.uk turned the UK housing market, it was mainly a support group for like-minded individuals who wanted assurances that they weren't insane by not going with the crowdthink.

The Australian buyers' strike is different in what way exactly?

You've heard of a control group right - provides baseline data with which to compare any scientific intervention.

We have no control group here ie we don't don't what would have happened in the absence of HPC, so you can't say that it hasn't made a difference to either the rate of increases per 2007 or the rate of falls since then and equally I can't say that it has made a difference. But I can say it is more likely that I would have bought if I hadn't come across this site and I have read plenty of posts on here saying similar, and given that as another poster points out 10s of thousand have come through this site, I think its reasonable to believe it has made a difference.

If you think otherwise then presumably you would also argue that property porn and biased media ramping also have had no effect in encouraging HPI then?

[Paddles]

You've heard of a control group right - provides baseline data with which to compare any scientific intervention.

We have no control group here ie we don't don't what would have happened in the absence of HPC, so you can't say that it hasn't made a difference to either the rate of increases per 2007 or the rate of falls since then and equally I can't say that it has made a difference. But I can say it is more likely that I would have bought if I hadn't come across this site and I have read plenty of posts on here saying similar, and given that as another poster points out 10s of thousand have come through this site, I think its reasonable to believe it has made a difference.

If you think otherwise then presumably you would also argue that property porn and biased media ramping also have had no effect in encouraging HPI then?

I'm sure HPC had an effect on the 0.015% of the UK population that visited it. I just suspect the effect of the unwinding global credit markets was a bit more material. Like by a factor of several billion.

The Aussie campaign may have an effect too but compared to the bursting of China it'll be teeny.

Edited April 3, 2011 by Paddles

[NEO72]

I'm sure HPC had an effect on the 0.015% of the UK population that visited it. I just suspect the effect of the unwinding global credit markets was a bit more material. Like by a factor of several billion.

The Aussie campaign may have an effect too but compared to the bursting of China it'll be teeny.

And the percentage of the population who are wavering buyers are? But I don't want to get into statistical pedantry and tbh I don't think there's any point arguing an further as I doubt your world view will change - I'm sure you also think your single vote is wasted and that every major social movement has been the result of a spontaneous mass attitude change - but hey ho.

[douggggy]

Because you get a tasty cornish pasty for a quid when you feel peckish in town.

er..........................................................

I beg to differ.

I am of the persuasion that, cold pasty bad, hot pasty good

a Greggs` pasty is neither, which although is a physical impossibility, Greggs somehow ALWAYS manage to do it

so, question for the tax lawyers, are Greggs not really hot pastys VAT rated as hot take away food should be, or are they really cold for tax purposes as a hot loaf of bread just out of the oven supposidly is

[mdman]

Much as I'd like it to succeed, I don't think it will. People will act in what they perceive are their own interests. And most people have incredibly messed up perceptions when it comes to houses, mortgages and debt. A special interest group can't control how much value they'll place on the place they decide they want to live in. People get incredibly emotional and attach huge value to the houses and flats they want to buy.

[Paddles]

And the percentage of the population who are wavering buyers are? But I don't want to get into statistical pedantry and tbh I don't think there's any point arguing an further as I doubt your world view will change - I'm sure you also think your single vote is wasted and that every major social movement has been the result of a spontaneous mass attitude change - but hey ho.

So which do you think had the biggest effect on house prices in 2008, this website or the collapse of Lehmans, Northern Rock, et al?

The Buyers' Strike isn't exactly the tearing down of the Berlin Wall or the Jacobite Risings, it's just a bunch of people complaining that prices of houses are bit eye-watering and (as Australians seem to do a lot of the time) expecting the government to intervene.

Ultimately, the global economy will do the job for them in spite of what the government or striking FTBs try to do.

Maybe we should petition the Currant Bun to run a headline of "It woz HPC wot won it!"......

[Hywel Dda]

"The one thing I don't understand is, why doesn't China just invade Oz? and take all these resources. " - General Belgrano

Because that would destroy their market.

Why invade when they can pirate any of Australias goods, manufacture those goods out of Australias exported recycled rubbish.

Sell the reshaped plastic crap back to Australia. Forcing Australians to stop manufacturing, becoming service sector consumers.

Sit back watch the debt inflate, buy the debt with the proceeds of the returned reshaped recycled rubbish.

Austalia becomes bankrupt - Chinese step in buy the properties, resources & businesses.

To compete the Aussies would then outsource to China any of the service sector jobs it can.

Edited April 4, 2011 by Hywel Dda

[Tiger Woods?]

The one thing I don't understand is, why doesn't China just invade Oz? and take all these resources. Lets face it the Japanese were only one Island group away during the 1940's. Australia and NZ are a long way from any of the western world.

I wouldn't have thought there are any "fundamentals" in Oz.

Why would they bother doing that when Oz is willing to exchange its resources for surplus pieces of dyed wood fibre they get from the US?

[Ruffneck]

"The one thing I don't understand is, why doesn't China just invade Oz? and take all these resources. " - General Belgrano

Because that would destroy their market.

Why invade when they can pirate any of Australias goods, manufacture those goods out of Australias exported recycled rubbish.

Sell the reshaped plastic crap back to Australia. Forcing Australians to stop manufacturing, becoming service sector consumers.

Sit back watch the debt inflate, buy the debt with the proceeds of the returned reshaped recycled rubbish.

Austalia becomes bankrupt - Chinese step in buy the properties, resources & businesses.

To compete the Aussies would then outsource to China any of the service sector jobs it can.

Australia runs a trade surplus with China , you know that right?

The reason China hasn't invaded is they are historically non-interventionist.This could change with the current government they have in power.

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

The one thing I don't understand is, why doesn't China just invade Oz? and take all these resources. Lets face it the Japanese were only one Island group away during the 1940's. Australia and NZ are a long way from any of the western world.

I wouldn't have thought there are any "fundamentals" in Oz.

Because it's impossible. In fact, strictly from a military point of view it would be easier for the Chinese to invade Britain than Australia, although why the hell they would want to do that would be anybody's guess.

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

Australia runs a trade surplus with China , you know that right?

The reason China hasn't invaded is they are historically non-interventionist.This could change with the current government they have in power.

It is very non-interventionist, and this is another good point. China is on course to be quite powerful if it plays its cards right. Attempting impossible and totally pointless invasions of SE Asia in the missile age is the best thing Beijing could do if it wanted to destroy itself utterly.

[LuckyOne]

Why would they bother doing that when Oz is willing to exchange its resources for surplus pieces of dyed wood fibre they get from the US?

And why do China exchange the results of its developmental progress, global productive asset accumulation and productive capacity for the very same surplus pieces of dyed wood fibre they get from the US? I expect that people like Scepticus would claim that they have no option and I think that they are correct.

Owning "things" directly seems to be the best option. Owning proxies for "things" like commodities is a currently popular alternative that may or may not prove to be reasonable.

Owning claims on "things" like bonds and stocks seem to be an irrational bubble that is about to burst.

[aussieboy]

"The one thing I don't understand is, why doesn't China just invade Oz? and take all these resources. " - General Belgrano

Because that would destroy their market.

Why invade when they can pirate any of Australias goods, manufacture those goods out of Australias exported recycled rubbish.

Sell the reshaped plastic crap back to Australia. Forcing Australians to stop manufacturing, becoming service sector consumers.

Sit back watch the debt inflate, buy the debt with the proceeds of the returned reshaped recycled rubbish.

Austalia becomes bankrupt - Chinese step in buy the properties, resources & businesses.

To compete the Aussies would then outsource to China any of the service sector jobs it can.

Nonsense from beginning to end.

[NEO72]

The Buyers' Strike isn't exactly the tearing down of the Berlin Wall or the Jacobite Risings, it's just a bunch of people complaining that prices of houses are bit eye-watering and (as Australians seem to do a lot of the time) expecting the government to intervene.

Sorry, I didn't realise you hadn't actually looked at these sites...

You're putting up quite a vociferous argument - it's almost like you don't want them to change anything....

[Panda]

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20110401/why-inflated-markets-must-crash.html

[Paddles]

Sorry, I didn't realise you hadn't actually looked at these sites...

You're putting up quite a vociferous argument - it's almost like you don't want them to change anything....

I'd love to see the Australian market return to some level of normality, but what I want is not relevant.

My argument is a simple one: the forces of the global economy are exponentially more influential than this campaign. You seem to disagree and take it as an indicator of a defeatist or apathetic attitude. You're entitled to your opinion.

Edited April 4, 2011 by Paddles

[Hywel Dda]

Nonsense from beginning to end.

I was being facetious, ironically talking about the U.K. economy - all that i can talk about with my myopic grasp.

Please dont tell me the aussies have gone all U.S. and lost there sense of irony.

But then again i'd lay money on the fact that China is going to ****** Over Australia if they think they aren't.

Edited April 5, 2011 by Hywel Dda

[Ruffneck]

But then again i'd lay money on the fact that China is going to ****** Over Australia if they think they aren't.

China does what is in it's own best interests , to the detriment of other countries on earth.Thats why everything is made there now.

You don't have to be Einstein to figure that out.

[aussieboy]

I was being facetious, ironically talking about the U.K. economy - all that i can talk about with my myopic grasp.

Please dont tell me the aussies have gone all U.S. and lost there sense of irony.

But then again i'd lay money on the fact that China is going to ****** Over Australia if they think they aren't.

Fair enough... often hard to tell what's ironic around here!