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Shock Rise In Number Of People Defaulting On Their Mortgages As Consumer Confidence At Hits Lowest Ebb For 20 Years


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Shock rise in number of people defaulting on their mortgages as consumer confidence at hits lowest ebb for 20 years

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1371826/Rise-mortgage-defaults-house-prices-rise-confidence-ebbs.html#ixzz1IBBG5uRW

The mail gets better every day. Confidence was actually better than expected and the BOE credit conditions survey was pretty encouraging over all.

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"Pay increases also appear to be picking up in response to rising inflation, with recent deals worth at least three per cent - more than double when compared to the same time last year."

Interesting...... Merv's running out of excuses to avoid a rate hike.

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From the comments under the article.

House prices are not going up thanks to greedy investors. Our house is on the market for £60000 less than it is worth and we had cash offers that were so low that I felt insulted and contemplated just handing the house back to the bank instead. - Lilith, England, UK, 31/3/2011
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So what is the percentage of people in arrears? A friend I know working for a local building society in the East Midlands tells me that over 30% of their loans are 6 months or more in arrears. Surely this can't be right - can it ?

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1371826/Rise-mortgage-defaults-house-prices-rise-confidence-ebbs.html#ixzz1IBJQJvOv

In the comments. Interesting.

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"Pay increases also appear to be picking up in response to rising inflation, with recent deals worth at least three per cent - more than double when compared to the same time last year."

Interesting...... Merv's running out of excuses to avoid a rate hike.

I'd like to know where my 3% pay increase is, although that still doesn't come close to matching inflation.

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This rise in default story was just covered on itv lunch time news by their economics edtitor.

She said tit was mixed news we have just had from the B of E.

The bad news, was the rise in defaults,which they expected to keep going up, because of the rise in the cost of living, and worries about possible interest rate rises.

But she said that the "better news" though, was that there are now more mortgages on offer, with low loan to value, for those with small deposits. :rolleyes:

But whilst this will help the housing market, she said, the overall message is that house prices will continue to keep going down, which does nothing for confidence.

She said the drop in High Street sales is related to house prices. If your house price value is giong down, you are not going to spend in the High Street, on items such as sofas and tv's.

She said she had noted Laura Ashley shares have plummeted 16% today, Mothecare's 10%, and Dxions are down 7% today.

Amazing how that item admitted that people in the UK will only carry on spending, if they think their house prices are going up. :rolleyes:

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This rise in default story was just covered on itv lunch time news by their economics edtitor.

She said tit was mixed news we have just had from the B of E.

The bad news, was the rise in defaults,which they expected to keep going up, because of the rise in the cost of living, and worries about possible interest rate rises.

But she said that the "better news" though, was that there are now more mortgages on offer, with low loan to value, for those with small deposits. :rolleyes:

But whilst this will help the housing market, she said, the overall message is that house prices will continue to keep going down, which does nothing for confidence.

She said the drop in High Street sales is related to house prices. If your house price value is giong down, you are not going to spend in the High Street, on items such as sofas and tv's.

She said she had noted Laura Ashley shares have plummeted 16% today, Mothecare's 10%, and Dxions are down 7% today.

Amazing how that item admitted that people in the UK will only carry on spending, if they think their house prices are going up. :rolleyes:

I could have done better than that with my A-Level in Economics.

In this economic climate, how much people perceive their house to be worth isn't going to affect their spending if they've got no money left in their current account at the end of each month.

If ITV are still pushing drivel like this, then I'm afraid this crash still has a long time to run.

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This rise in default story was just covered on itv lunch time news by their economics edtitor.

She said tit was mixed news we have just had from the B of E.

The bad news, was the rise in defaults,which they expected to keep going up, because of the rise in the cost of living, and worries about possible interest rate rises.

But she said that the "better news" though, was that there are now more mortgages on offer, with low loan to value, for those with small deposits. :rolleyes:

But whilst this will help the housing market, she said, the overall message is that house prices will continue to keep going down, which does nothing for confidence.

She said the drop in High Street sales is related to house prices. If your house price value is giong down, you are not going to spend in the High Street, on items such as sofas and tv's.

She said she had noted Laura Ashley shares have plummeted 16% today, Mothecare's 10%, and Dxions are down 7% today.

Amazing how that item admitted that people in the UK will only carry on spending, if they think their house prices are going up. :rolleyes:

So if the percieved value of an asset that the owner has no real financial access to effect the amount that owner will splash out in the shops? Madness!!

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So if the percieved value of an asset that the owner has no real financial access to effect the amount that owner will splash out in the shops? Madness!!

It would be mad if it were true....but it's not. House prices have nowt to do with this stage of the downturn. In fact the sustained far too high price of property shows that there is not yet any connection. They will fall (crash?) soon but they are following the recession, not leading it.

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Shock rise in number of people defaulting on their mortgages as consumer confidence at hits lowest ebb for 20 years

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1371826/Rise-mortgage-defaults-house-prices-rise-confidence-ebbs.html#ixzz1IBBG5uRW

quick better raise interest rates so all britain's savers get a better return and CPI comes down - can't see any law of unintended consequences there.

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quick better raise interest rates so all britain's savers get a better return and CPI comes down - can't see any law of unintended consequences there.

I posted a comment on this item on the news blog,

"We are now well and truly back in early 80's mode only this time there are no interest rate cuts or tax cuts available to artificially jump start recovery. And the only wars going on this year are not going to have the Falklands factor."

If rates go up it really will be "game on".

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It would be mad if it were true....but it's not. House prices have nowt to do with this stage of the downturn. In fact the sustained far too high price of property shows that there is not yet any connection. They will fall (crash?) soon but they are following the recession, not leading it.

Not sure that's quite true.. presumably it is much easier to MEW if prices are increasing than if they are decreasing.

MEWQ306.jpg

MEW alone was accounting for close to 6% GDP at peak..

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http://www.bankofeng...urvey110331.pdf

credit2.png

creditk.png

First increase since Q4 2008. I don't know what the red line is?

What does this chart mean? It looks like the vertical bars represent an INCREASE in defaults, nothing to do with the absolute level of defaults. An increase on what? MOM? If so, thats an eight-fold increase at least.

Edited by corevalue
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What does this chart mean? It looks like the vertical bars represent an INCREASE in defaults, nothing to do with the absolute level of defaults. An increase on what? MOM? If so, thats an eight-fold increase at least.

I believe it's a percentage increase QoQ.

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Excellent chart ... where did it come from?

Came from 'The Market Oracle'.. should have mentioned in my post.

Original link HERE

[Edit to add: sorry, should have checked my sources more carefully.. this is for the US. I imagine the UK will be pretty comparable, I'll try to find a better chart]

Found one, and it is comparable, though slightly less.. about 3-4% gdp.

boe-equity-withdra_1550334c.jpg

Data from the BoE, source, Telegraph HERE

Edited by libspero
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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