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Nationwide Hpi 0.5%

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Do you really believe these figures reflect the true state of the market? I would be very hesitant to believe figures published by a business with such a large interest in HPI.

More likely to give the BOE confidence to raise IR as well which is what will really pile on the pressure.

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Last month has been revised up to 0.7% from 0.3%!

note that the monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re estimated

So the figure was the same they just adjusted it up more.

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"Bad news for first-time buyers: house prices rose by 0.5% in March, according to latest figures from the Nationwide building society." (Guardian article)

That's a pleasing attempt to be balanced, mentioning FTB's pain. However, it's bad news for anyone upsizing as well. So it's bad for circa 75% of the market...

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Halifax mortgage products are uncompetitive and are the risky (more profit end). Not sure if Nationwide wide are the same. I did see they have a 60% ltv 5yr fix that beats hsbc.

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Do you really believe these figures reflect the true state of the market? I would be very hesitant to believe figures published by a business with such a large interest in HPI.

Well their figures showed a 20% fall over 2008/9. Do you believe that?

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Wasn't a rise expected this month due to people buying £1m+ properties rushing them through to beat the rise in stamp duty in April? Or have have I got this wrong?

Yes you're right! I totally forgot about that. I even said late last year that we will see some rises in spring because of it and the latest RICS survey agents comments showed many were reporting a surge in high end interest to beat the rise.

Thanks for that I feel a bit better now we have an excuse for it.

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Wow. I suspected the BBC to run with this figure rather than the Hometrack one but they're actually slightly down playing it. :o

House prices: Sluggish market predicted by Nationwide

31 March 2011 Last updated at 07:02

The UK housing market will remain "sluggish" despite a rise in house prices in March, according to the Nationwide building society.

Nationwide's latest housing survey found property prices increased by 0.5% during March.

However, this was unlikely to mark the start of a boom in house prices, the lender said.

The cost of an average home was £164,751, some 0.1% more than a year earlier.

The three-month on three-month comparison of prices, a smoother indicator of house price trends, showed a 0.6% rise in UK property values, Nationwide said.

"While demand is likely to remain fairly soft, a rapid increase in the supply of properties also appears unlikely," said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist.

"Low interest rates and a stabilisation in labour market conditions have prevented a rise in forced selling, and the subdued market outlook is deterring many sellers from entering the market.

"With the economic recovery expected to remain sluggish, the most likely outcome is that the property market will follow suit, with low transaction levels and prices moving sideways or modestly lower through 2011."

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Well their figures showed a 20% fall over 2008/9. Do you believe that?

I would suggest that the fall in 2008/9 could have been even greater than this and that they had to report falls to remain credible. This seems to have succeeded.

The pressure on the people producing this data must be immense. They know that by reporting falls they are putting their jobs and organisation at risk. In this situation what would you do? Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

Nationwide and Halifax may provide a guide to prices and trends but I would be much happier to have data from a source whose employees do not have a very large interest in HPI.

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Yes, Bruce. Most things point to a long-term decline. LOOOONG-term... Life is too short, I wont be hanging around the UK to support this bubble much longer. The (short-term) crash everybody has been hoping for isn't going to happen - I'm amazed that it hasn't, to be honest, but that's government intervention and vested interests for you, as well as the ability of the UK to keep others remotely confident in them despite record debt.

No WAY am I waiting 5+ years. I'm out of here in a couple of years.

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Wasn't a rise expected this month due to people buying £1m+ properties rushing them through to beat the rise in stamp duty in April? Or have have I got this wrong?

As far as I am aware Nationwide either exclude or mix adjust more expensive properties from their statistics to avoid unrepresentative skew.

If I am wrong and it were to be the case that the March stats were boosted by a rush to beat the rise then we could anticipate a significant reversal in April.

We can but hope.

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In the "desirable" village I live in many new house have come on the market this spring and only one doeruper sensibly price (27% down on a similar house in good condition on the same road) that has sold. One house that sold in the winter has come back on the market cheaper (having taken 2 years to sell the first time).

One house that would normally cause a feeding frenzy went on for tender that closed last Friday. It had a very punchy offers over price so they were hoping we were still in the bubble, it is back on for normal sale with a lower price.

That market has been steadily falling here since may last year, it is figure like this that is preventing a crash, it is almost as if these figures are being used to keep the market in a state of confusion. A few months down followed but a few up.....

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In the "desirable" village I live in many new house have come on the market this spring and only one doeruper sensibly price (27% down on a similar house in good condition on the same road) that has sold. One house that sold in the winter has come back on the market cheaper (having taken 2 years to sell the first time).

One house that would normally cause a feeding frenzy went on for tender that closed last Friday. It had a very punchy offers over price so they were hoping we were still in the bubble, it is back on for normal sale with a lower price.

That market has been steadily falling here since may last year, it is figure like this that is preventing a crash, it is almost as if these figures are being used to keep the market in a state of confusion. A few months down followed but a few up.....

And they take it in turns to have the 'up' month so the media can emphasise the one that's up this month. Massaging figures is easy, ask any sales manager.

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As far as I am aware Nationwide either exclude or mix adjust more expensive properties from their statistics to avoid unrepresentative skew.

If I am wrong and it were to be the case that the March stats were boosted by a rush to beat the rise then we could anticipate a significant reversal in April.

We can but hope.

Yes they do mix adjust to account for more expensive houses selling but the stamp duty increase would have actually created an awful lot if demand in March as buyers bring forward purchases this will actually cause them to sell for higher prices thereby pulling up the index.

Yes April will tell if this has had a noticeable effect.

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On page 3, charts 2, 3 and 4, I seem to see a second, smaller, dead cat bounce. No?

(Which is, physically, what would actually happen, if the cat was just a little bouncy, no? You know, the second, little and final bounce? :) )

Only the first chart on that page is out of sync with the others. It could be a blip. Maybe caused by the 1 million stamp duty thing?

Let's see April numbers. They will be very important.

Besides, the real correction may only arrive when interest rates start to rise. Still, not too long to go now. 2011 will be a very interesting year. And 2012 may be the year to buy, for those (like me) who won't mind losing a little equity afterwards. Then again, if someone is able to secure a 3 years rental agreement on a nice house, they may buy near the bottom.

Forecasts will be easier in 2 or 3 months. Patience my friends. Patience.

.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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How is this possible? I know the levels of sales will be low but it just means another bunch of morons will now go out and make asking price offers for fear of 'missing the boat' when it all starts to 'rise again'.

We need more momentum than this otherwise the sheep will believe prices are holding out and will just continue to pay what chancer sellers want.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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