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Uk March Y/y House Price Fall Biggest Since Oct '09 -Hometrack

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* House prices -0.1 pct mth/mth; -3.2 pct yr/yr in March

* London bucks trend of falling prices in nearly all regions

* Hometrack: Subdued demand, more supply to push prices down

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell at their fastest annual rate in 17 months in March and only strong demand in London prevented an even bigger decline, a survey showed on Thursday.

Property research company Hometrack said prices fell by 3.2 percent in March compared to a year ago, the biggest fall since October 2009, when Britain was emerging from an 18-month recession.

On the month, prices fell by 0.1 percent, the smallest drop since July, after a 0.2 percent dip in February.

However, Hometrack said London's relatively strong performance flattered the monthly figure, masking bigger falls in every region except southwest England where prices were unchanged.

Prices in Greater London rose by 0.2 percent and climbed by 1 percent in the centre of the capital, buoyed by strong demand and weak supply.

House prices are expected to continue to fall during 2011, dragged down by tight lending, government spending cuts and tax rises, high unemployment and low wage growth, Hometrack said.

"Overall we expect headline prices to continue to track lower over the coming months as supply rises and demand remains subdued," said Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell.

"Predicting short-term fluctuations in demand for housing is notoriously difficult, but the key risks revolve around interest rates, unemployment and income growth."

Most economists agree that UK house prices will fall gradually through the rest of the year, particularly as the Bank of England is expected to start raising interest rates from their record low. (Reporting by Peter Griffiths; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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* House prices -0.1 pct mth/mth; -3.2 pct yr/yr in March

* London bucks trend of falling prices in nearly all regions

* Hometrack: Subdued demand, more supply to push prices down

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell at their fastest annual rate in 17 months in March and only strong demand in London prevented an even bigger decline, a survey showed on Thursday.

Property research company Hometrack said prices fell by 3.2 percent in March compared to a year ago, the biggest fall since October 2009, when Britain was emerging from an 18-month recession.

On the month, prices fell by 0.1 percent, the smallest drop since July, after a 0.2 percent dip in February.

However, Hometrack said London's relatively strong performance flattered the monthly figure, masking bigger falls in every region except southwest England where prices were unchanged.

Prices in Greater London rose by 0.2 percent and climbed by 1 percent in the centre of the capital, buoyed by strong demand and weak supply.

House prices are expected to continue to fall during 2011, dragged down by tight lending, government spending cuts and tax rises, high unemployment and low wage growth, Hometrack said.

"Overall we expect headline prices to continue to track lower over the coming months as supply rises and demand remains subdued," said Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell.

"Predicting short-term fluctuations in demand for housing is notoriously difficult, but the key risks revolve around interest rates, unemployment and income growth."

Most economists agree that UK house prices will fall gradually through the rest of the year, particularly as the Bank of England is expected to start raising interest rates from their record low. (Reporting by Peter Griffiths; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Good morning!

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The commentary is talking them down too, so industry VIs have realised that they can still do transactions on a falling market if they can get sellers to cut prices.

Everything's coming up roses.

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The average price data is based on the contributor's opinion on the achievable selling price for each of four standard property types in every postcode district. The price is for a given date each month and assuming a willing seller and a reasonable marketing period while taking into account current market conditions and recent transactions. The price data that is collected goes through a verification process and is then weighted up from postcode district level using Census housing stock numbers to derive an 'overall weighted average price'. The methodology means that cash buyers are implicitly included in the results. The monthly data is not seasonally adjusted.

Not seasonally adjusted prices, so this 0.1% fall is quite significant considering the time of year!

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Great news Pent Up. Thanks for posting it.

House prices are expected to continue to fall during 2011, dragged down by tight lending, government spending cuts and tax rises, high unemployment and low wage growth, Hometrack said.

"Overall we expect headline prices to continue to track lower over the coming months as supply rises and demand remains subdued," said Hometrack director of research Richard Donnell.

"Predicting short-term fluctuations in demand for housing is notoriously difficult, but the key risks revolve around interest rates, unemployment and income growth."

Most economists agree that UK house prices will fall gradually through the rest of the year, particularly as the Bank of England is expected to start raising interest rates from their record low.

So,

Supply rises

And demand "remains subdued", due to:

  1. tight lending
  2. government spending cuts
  3. and tax rises
  4. high unemployment
  5. low wage "growth" (if any!)
  6. low income "growth" (if any!)
  7. Bank of England is expected to start raising interest rates from their record low

:D Affordable housing is coming! Finally!!!

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Not seasonally adjusted prices, so this 0.1% fall is quite significant considering the time of year!

Do you know off the top of your head if they seasonally adjust during the winter?

I might ask them why if so...

Edit: Forget it, I found what you quoted

Edited by the.ciscokid

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Do you know off the top of your head if they seasonally adjust during the winter?

I might ask them why if so...

Edit: thought I was on the nationwide thread. Hometrack don't use SA any time of year.

Edited by Pent Up

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Edit: thought I was on the nationwide thread. Hometrack don't use SA any time of year.

Thanks :)

I can't see the link directly to the Hometrack report, so here it is if anyone wants it.

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Can't remember everything! There are LR, NW, Halifax, Hometrack etc etc... all different methodologies, areas, samples, sample sizes, based on selling price/asking price...

Isn't Hometrack England & Wales only? I'm in Scotland....

Maybe I should be memorising all this, but to be honest I've got enough on my plate and I don't think it makes a huge difference - I just want see see red figures across the board!

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Prices in Greater London rose by 0.2 percent and climbed by 1 percent in the centre of the capital, buoyed by strong demand and weak supply

Oh I just must by a 1 bed basement flat in Europes crime capital for 500k. It's the pefrect accessory for my stab proof vest.

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Why is this figure different than the NW? Sorry, I don't follow how the figures are calculated. Is there a summary?

1. Pluck figure out of ar5e

2. ???

3. Profit!

(edit - i can't believe ar5e is censored, it's a common usage english word dating back centuries!)

Edited by Lambie

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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