Has There Been Much Selling This Week?

[Gavin123]

Just wondering if the HPC members who are Estate Agents can give us an update on what the activity on the market has been like the past week or so?

Nothing seems to be shifting in my area at the minute, despite more houses starting to come on at reasonable prices.

[tinbin]

Nothing seems to be shifting in my area at the minute, despite more houses starting to come on at reasonable prices.

reasonable prices?? .. have I missed something?? Talk like that just gives EA's false hope.

Still a while to yet before we start announcing reasonable prices ... hence the 'nothing is shifting'

[Gavin123]

reasonable prices?? .. have I missed something?? Talk like that just gives EA's false hope.

Still a while to yet before we start announcing reasonable prices ... hence the 'nothing is shifting'

Sorry - bad choice of words! What i mean is that despite houses being advertised at lower levels than they have been in recent years - nothing seems to be shifting.

[Realistic NI EA]

Sweet FA if you want the blunt truth, but it has been like that for months if not years. I'll clarify that to say that some weeks are busier than others and you may see a flurry now and again of possibly 2 sale agreeds in one week followed by nothing the next week. There is absolutely no trend in house sales and I'm starting to feel that each Monday feels like a new year rather than just a new week as we never know what will happen. Thankfully we are getting more houses to rent which keeps us busy but for sellers the onus is on them to reduce their properties further to have any chance of a sale. I really have no idea how long it will take for the majority of houses to become reasonably priced as you say but that description varies by location and individual opinion.

[Ride_on]

Sorry - bad choice of words! What i mean is that despite houses being advertised at lower levels than they have been in recent years - nothing seems to be shifting.

Price drops like you get in the super market do not mean 'bargain' (even in the super market). Looking at the history since 1990 house prices have increase around 9x to 2007 levels, they are still at around 5x levels now when salaries have increased <2x in the same period. Houses are still unaffordable to the majority.

1 major influence has been investors coming in since the cease fire, and this was compounded by banks lending irresponsibly leading to 50% yearly increases near the peak. Does investor interest mean property is more 'valuable'?

We also have a large amount of empty homes, although accurate figures remain elusive it has increased dramatically in the last 5 years to around 60,000, the rates on empty homes changes due in October may cause a fire sale and further drops.

I would like to see property coming back down to 1990 levels, although its hard to know the supply/demand effect that may cause a slow increase. In the long term property cannot increase faster than wages, that is always going to end at some point.

[Shotoflight]

Price drops like you get in the super market do not mean 'bargain' (even in the super market). Looking at the history since 1990 house prices have increase around 9x to 2007 levels, they are still at around 5x levels now when salaries have increased <2x in the same period. Houses are still unaffordable to the majority.

1 major influence has been investors coming in since the cease fire, and this was compounded by banks lending irresponsibly leading to 50% yearly increases near the peak. Does investor interest mean property is more 'valuable'?

We also have a large amount of empty homes, although accurate figures remain elusive it has increased dramatically in the last 5 years to around 60,000, the rates on empty homes changes due in October may cause a fire sale and further drops.

I would like to see property coming back down to 1990 levels, although its hard to know the supply/demand effect that may cause a slow increase. In the long term property cannot increase faster than wages, that is always going to end at some point.

Govt support for home 'ownership' is strong - we used to have mortgage interest relief MIRAS, we now have no water charges, low interest rates, rates freezes, payment of mortgage interest for some (used to be over 6% interest paid), pressure on the banks for forbearance not to repossess and on the other hand to lend more and then schemes like co ownership and that one in the recent budget. Very very strongly skewed market for economic and political purposes at both Macro and micro level. Planning laws in there somewhere too. Thatcher pushed it selling council houses - for better or worse, but most politicians are of that mindset - see the recent expenses/flipping debacle.

Edited March 31, 2011 by Shotoflight

[BelfastVI]

Opened two new sites over the last two weeks. Three booked in each. Other sites sluggish enough.

[tinbin]

In the long term property cannot increase faster than wages, that is always going to end at some point.

+1

The reality of this point is now starting to surface. EA's, media, house sellers ... and so on can paper over the cracks and bury their heads in the sand about this and convince themselves that there are various other reasons why houses arn't selling.

The simple truth is very few people can afford to purchase houses at these prices ... and those who can chose not too because they think they will lose out by doing so.

[BelfastVI]

Just an update on this issue. We have booked 11 houses in April so far. This is the best start to a month in some time. I have had good months before which later puttered out so its far too early to claim that this is in any way a new twist.

However, from our point of view it is very promising.

It wont mean I attempt to put up prices but it keeps me confident that the prices, which we are running with for some time are priced correctly.

[paulw0t]

Just an update on this issue. We have booked 11 houses in April so far. This is the best start to a month in some time. I have had good months before which later puttered out so its far too early to claim that this is in any way a new twist.

However, from our point of view it is very promising.

It wont mean I attempt to put up prices but it keeps me confident that the prices, which we are running with for some time are priced correctly.

If you don't mind me asking

What sort of houses are you selling or what are the main ones selling?

Is it mainly new builds ?

Much above 125k ?

Only houses I see selling at the minute are ones that need a lot of work would this be your experience or are you seeing more of a spread?

[2buyornot2buy]

Just an update on this issue. We have booked 11 houses in April so far. This is the best start to a month in some time. I have had good months before which later puttered out so its far too early to claim that this is in any way a new twist.

However, from our point of view it is very promising.

It wont mean I attempt to put up prices but it keeps me confident that the prices, which we are running with for some time are priced correctly.

booked? I don't know what this means. Is this sales or viewers? Also I'm still waiting on the names of the EAs selling 100+ houses a month.

[tinbin]

Just an update on this issue. We have booked 11 houses in April so far. This is the best start to a month in some time. I have had good months before which later puttered out so its far too early to claim that this is in any way a new twist.

However, from our point of view it is very promising.

It wont mean I attempt to put up prices but it keeps me confident that the prices, which we are running with for some time are priced correctly.

I have got no reason to question your integrity and you always try to give a balanced view from what posts I have read. Having said that you did call Realistic EA a troll in another post

My point is that we have got no way of validating this information ... how do we know that this isn't a cute way of trying to influence the naive first time buyers that scan these forums that house prices are correctly priced and that as far as you are concerned it is business as usual?? (Im sure it prob isn't but as you have stated you have a VI)

I'm sure that there is only so much info that you can and will share on these forums but it would be interesting to hear the facts behind these figures ... are they sales? To whom ... FTBers, Movers etc? and what price are they selling at?

Other EA's and developers are struggling to shift existing stock but yet you claim that EA's in Belfast are shifting 100+ per month and now that you are shifting higher numbers. All this is contrary to the market elsewhere that has very much entered a stalemate stage.

[Realistic NI EA]

I have got no reason to question your integrity and you always try to give a balanced view from what posts I have read. Having said that you did call Realistic EA a troll in another post

My point is that we have got no way of validating this information ... how do we know that this isn't a cute way of trying to influence the naive first time buyers that scan these forums that house prices are correctly priced and that as far as you are concerned it is business as usual?? (Im sure it prob isn't but as you have stated you have a VI)

I'm sure that there is only so much info that you can and will share on these forums but it would be interesting to hear the facts behind these figures ... are they sales? To whom ... FTBers, Movers etc? and what price are they selling at?

Other EA's and developers are struggling to shift existing stock but yet you claim that EA's in Belfast are shifting 100+ per month and now that you are shifting higher numbers. All this is contrary to the market elsewhere that has very much entered a stalemate stage.

I can understand why BelfastVI would want to exaggerate his sales figures as he is in a position where he Needs to sell houses and Needs a positive message to be coming out to entice other would be buyers. That Rangerover Sport wont fill itself with petrol and there are undoubtedly creditors to appease so nothing but positive thinking will do. I on the other hand can be blatantly honest about our sales figures and where I think the market is heading. This is because my business does not rely solely on house sales infact at the moment sales only make up less than 1/3rd of our revenue so we have diversified to keep running a viable business during these extremely difficult times. A few of my competitors have not decided to steer away from being sales orientated and have suffered as a result. Don't get me wrong however as I want to sell houses but until they fall a bit further and become affordable to the masses then we will continue to make a living from other property related services whilst selling the odd house each month.

I did a bit of research into the statement that certain Belfast EAs were selling over 100 properties per month. Unfortunately that simply isnt true and sale agreed figures on Propertynews will show you that while some EAs are showing over 100 total Sale Agreeds, most of these have been sitting at that status for months so are either still not complete or may have already completed months ago and are still showing on the EAs books to make things look better. Once we sell a property it is removed from our sale agreed list and it automatically comes off propertynews. I know for a fact many EAs leave all their sold properties as saying Sale Agreed to make it look like they have hundreds of recently sold properties, which isnt true. Also, BelfastVI states that a number of his properties have been booked but I also have had 2 properties booked by potential FTBers in recent weeks in one of our developments. They looked good on the face of it but once they came to see our mortgage advisor they both had no chance of getting the mortgage due to strict lending criteria and other factors such as bad credit and not in their current job long enough, so 2 bookings became none. Everything can be made to sound good on the face of it, like we could have changed these 2 properties to Sale Agreed and left it like that for a month while knowing that the sale would never go through but I am not into all that nonsense and would rather people know the units are still available to buy.

[BelfastVI]

If you don't mind me asking

What sort of houses are you selling or what are the main ones selling?

Is it mainly new builds ?

Much above 125k ?

Only houses I see selling at the minute are ones that need a lot of work would this be your experience or are you seeing more of a spread?

We are a house builder so only new build.

Our main sellers are 1,000 foot Semi and 950 sq feet town houses. Price range from £130 to £155, depending on location.

[BelfastVI]

booked? I don't know what this means. Is this sales or viewers? Also I'm still waiting on the names of the EAs selling 100+ houses a month.

Booked means reserved. Every sale starts with that. It doesn't mean sold or paid for as people can withdraw. In the past I would have had a drop out rate of up to 30%. Over the last 3 years that has dropped to well below 10%.

Two reasons I guess.

1. (Hate this phrase) there are less tyre kickers around today. Anyone who books a house today has thought about and looked at everything.

2. Most have been to a mortgage broker/bank before hand and have assessed what they can buy.

Sorry didn't see your question about the estate agents if you posted it earlier. BTW usually sell over 100 units every month. Reeds Rains (Halifax) sell even more, but they have something like 16 outlets.

[BelfastVI]

I have got no reason to question your integrity and you always try to give a balanced view from what posts I have read. Having said that you did call Realistic EA a troll in another post

My point is that we have got no way of validating this information ... how do we know that this isn't a cute way of trying to influence the naive first time buyers that scan these forums that house prices are correctly priced and that as far as you are concerned it is business as usual?? (Im sure it prob isn't but as you have stated you have a VI)

I'm sure that there is only so much info that you can and will share on these forums but it would be interesting to hear the facts behind these figures ... are they sales? To whom ... FTBers, Movers etc? and what price are they selling at?

Other EA's and developers are struggling to shift existing stock but yet you claim that EA's in Belfast are shifting 100+ per month and now that you are shifting higher numbers. All this is contrary to the market elsewhere that has very much entered a stalemate stage.

Fair point and you know I cant really validate this info. You will also know that I have been here a while and I don't claim to have months like this every month. I have also relieved when I had very poor months and even quarters in sales terms. Sept, Oct and the first three weeks of Nov were poor. Last week of Nov was excellent up until the snow ( I know I am not allowed to use that as an excuse. Jan was very good but Feb was bad. Mar was also bad apart from good sales on a few new sites we opened. I have posted most of this before so if I was trying to pump the market I was doing a pretty poor job of it. This month, and we are only half way through it is the best for some time. As I said in my post its too early to say whether this is a blip or a turn. April could in turn be a dog and I will post on that as I have on other poor months.

Who are we selling to - about 60& FTBers and the rest have houses to sell. I an no longer concerned about that as most complete on time. Divorce still is a factor.

[BelfastVI]

I can understand why BelfastVI would want to exaggerate his sales figures as he is in a position where he Needs to sell houses and Needs a positive message to be coming out to entice other would be buyers. That Rangerover Sport wont fill itself with petrol and there are undoubtedly creditors to appease so nothing but positive thinking will do. I on the other hand can be blatantly honest about our sales figures and where I think the market is heading. This is because my business does not rely solely on house sales infact at the moment sales only make up less than 1/3rd of our revenue so we have diversified to keep running a viable business during these extremely difficult times. A few of my competitors have not decided to steer away from being sales orientated and have suffered as a result. Don't get me wrong however as I want to sell houses but until they fall a bit further and become affordable to the masses then we will continue to make a living from other property related services whilst selling the odd house each month.

I did a bit of research into the statement that certain Belfast EAs were selling over 100 properties per month. Unfortunately that simply isnt true and sale agreed figures on Propertynews will show you that while some EAs are showing over 100 total Sale Agreeds, most of these have been sitting at that status for months so are either still not complete or may have already completed months ago and are still showing on the EAs books to make things look better. Once we sell a property it is removed from our sale agreed list and it automatically comes off propertynews. I know for a fact many EAs leave all their sold properties as saying Sale Agreed to make it look like they have hundreds of recently sold properties, which isnt true. Also, BelfastVI states that a number of his properties have been booked but I also have had 2 properties booked by potential FTBers in recent weeks in one of our developments. They looked good on the face of it but once they came to see our mortgage advisor they both had no chance of getting the mortgage due to strict lending criteria and other factors such as bad credit and not in their current job long enough, so 2 bookings became none. Everything can be made to sound good on the face of it, like we could have changed these 2 properties to Sale Agreed and left it like that for a month while knowing that the sale would never go through but I am not into all that nonsense and would rather people know the units are still available to buy.

First of all I don't try to sell houses in here. Secondly if I falsely mark them as 'Agreed' when they are not I am hardly going to sell them. I have no time for any of that nonsense as it will not keep the wheels turning. I have no rental business to fall back on so I wont remain in business if I don't sell and complete house sales.

As stated above I openly report the bad months as well as the good months. I am also honest enough to admit that there are more bad months than good. I may emphasis my views on matters but I will not exaggerate any facts in any of my posts. I find there is no point. My opinion on various issues will differ from most and most people respect that. I have been posting here for three years and this is the first time I have been accused of telling pathetic lies. Hopefully somebody who has been here a little longer than yourself will reveal their thoughts on this matter.

This month has surprised me. I am sorry it seams to disappoint some in here. I will stick to the facts and report them as I see fit. When I have a good burst of sales (which I admit is rare) I will post it.

there is no point in snipping but I don't drive a Range Rover and as you will no doubt learn you will need something more than positive thinking to appease creditors.

[BelfastVI]

I did a bit of research into the statement that certain Belfast EAs were selling over 100 properties per month. Unfortunately that simply isnt true

As if my magic I spotted this in yesterdays homefinder.

It is a full page add from Reeds Rains stating,,

We notice one of our competitors has agreed in excess of 300 properties so far in 2011.

SO HAVE WE

The market appears to be moving for Two Agents -

What's your Agent telling you?

[BelfastVI]

Interesting ----so it looks as if the dogs are going to fight over the bone then.

LOL, I have no idea what they are at. However it backs up what I was hearing about some agents turning 100 units per month.

[tinbin]

Reeds Rains are a UK wide estate agency ... does it state anywhere that this is 300+ in Belfast?

My first instinct is it is propaganda piece and that it is prob a manipulated figure from the UK network or regions and not just Belfast

Not the most clever piece of marketing IMO ... it smells a bit of desperation to say 'we are just as good as a competitor' and we are so desperate to convince you we have paid for an entire page in the BT.

[tinbin]

if you search Reeds Rains on property news there are 1381 listings ...

Prob not the most accurate way to work it out but I then excluded 'sale agreed' land & property and it drops by 237, suggesting this is the number that have been sale agreed to me.

These could have been sale agreed for some time as well so not sure of the accuracy of this. Given the nature of their advert I was expecting to find larger figures though

[Realistic NI EA]

It backs up nothing BelfastVI, and looking at the sale agreed figures it simply shows that all of their branches in total (including those outside Belfast) have sale agreed around 200 properties. As I said in an earlier post, it is a common trick of EAs to leave completed transactions on their books to make it look like they always have properties recently sale agreed. We have no idea how many of these sale agreeds they are boasting about are from the past couple of months and how many were done last year. It's an easy statement for them to make as they know no other EA can pull them up on their figures as they can manipulate them in any way. I still maintain that there is no EA in Belfast alone that is agreeing 100 sales per month, each and every month. I suppose if you took a big chain likeUPS and added all their branch sales then you would probably get 100 per month but when that includes over 10 offices its not that impressive.

[Shotoflight]

It backs up nothing BelfastVI, and looking at the sale agreed figures it simply shows that all of their branches in total (including those outside Belfast) have sale agreed around 200 properties. As I said in an earlier post, it is a common trick of EAs to leave completed transactions on their books to make it look like they always have properties recently sale agreed. We have no idea how many of these sale agreeds they are boasting about are from the past couple of months and how many were done last year. It's an easy statement for them to make as they know no other EA can pull them up on their figures as they can manipulate them in any way. I still maintain that there is no EA in Belfast alone that is agreeing 100 sales per month, each and every month. I suppose if you took a big chain likeUPS and added all their branch sales then you would probably get 100 per month but when that includes over 10 offices its not that impressive.

Houses sell - someone has to sell them. However, previous quarterly reports barely have enough sales to provide statistically accurate or valid figures. As pointed out often enough by BVI. That is the bigger picture. And things generally are getting worse.

More realism recently, by a few sellers/EA's, may unblock the pipe a little bit, but the patient is still very sick. This is prime selling time, normally, coming into summer so VIs will nudge this along. I can see nothing in terms of the fundamentals that matter to the housing market here that will enhance or even sustain this, if true. Perhaps a delay in interest rate rises, which will have all the more impact when they do rise.

There is great uncertainty in peoples minds over jobs and the economy, rising costs, impending interest rate rises, and the banks have little appetite for risky lending. Sunshine and the extra hour won't fix this. And nor, for the most part, will a full page ad in the Bel Tel.

[BelfastVI]

if you search Reeds Rains on property news there are 1381 listings ...

Prob not the most accurate way to work it out but I then excluded 'sale agreed' land & property and it drops by 237, suggesting this is the number that have been sale agreed to me.

These could have been sale agreed for some time as well so not sure of the accuracy of this. Given the nature of their advert I was expecting to find larger figures though

Not hear to defend Reeds. But over the last 3 months I imagine they remove the units that actually complete. I also believe the 300 number is for the whole of NI, not just Belfast.

[BelfastVI]

It backs up nothing BelfastVI, and looking at the sale agreed figures it simply shows that all of their branches in total (including those outside Belfast) have sale agreed around 200 properties. As I said in an earlier post, it is a common trick of EAs to leave completed transactions on their books to make it look like they always have properties recently sale agreed. We have no idea how many of these sale agreeds they are boasting about are from the past couple of months and how many were done last year. It's an easy statement for them to make as they know no other EA can pull them up on their figures as they can manipulate them in any way. I still maintain that there is no EA in Belfast alone that is agreeing 100 sales per month, each and every month. I suppose if you took a big chain likeUPS and added all their branch sales then you would probably get 100 per month but when that includes over 10 offices its not that impressive.

I think I actually states that I believed they had 16 outlets. I am almost sure the paper stated they had agreed in excess of 300 units.

Did I say Belfast. If I did, I didn't mean to. I assume this figure is for the whole of NI, although their offices are mostly around Belfast.