How Fast?

[Maynard]

by what percentage do you think house prices will fall?

Some people on the forum have been saying that they expect to see prices to come down by 50%, that will take some time at this rate.

When does everyone think the correction will accelerate?

As a wannabe FTB, I'm hoping to jump onto the ladder in late 2007, I think prices will have dropped 20% by then and hopefully I'll be able to pick up a bargain at BMV.

[Guest KingCharles1st]

2.5K per month for people who are desperate to sell.

[right_freds_dead]

i can no longer see it as a % figure. wages may rise. prices will come down. this and that.

best instead to look at affordability. which for me is the age old, fair figure of....

3.5x annual salary.....

[BandWagon]

If you look at historic corrections in the housing market the sharpest falls happen in the first couple of years.

I have already seen prices fall a good 10% in Clapham, and in Chiswick there are some very desperate sellers.

This is without any major "trigger".

Once the job losses start mounting we will see harder falls, I'm expecting at least 20% down by next year.

After that a drift down for years until people believe that property is a terrible investment.

I'm happy with 30% off the highs, but from the volumes of people struggling to sell, and the rate the UK economy is deteriorating, 50% won't be a surprise.

[Once in a lifetime]

by what percentage do you think house prices will fall?

I agree with some of the other posters, it will be hard to nail a figure as a % average.

National averages are misleading, and subject to too much spin.

If you do an internet search for % drops during the 90’s crash, I think you

Get something like 32% national house price drop.

Which I can say was nothing like the drop I took when I sold in 1993 (40% down)

So I’m looking at ‘year’ instead of ‘%’ where I am, some houses are at around 2003 prices.

(And falling). Which is getting very close to the figure I would jump in.

It’s just a shame they are properties in rough areas I don’t want to live.

[red]

I agree with some of the other posters, it will be hard to nail a figure as a % average.

National averages are misleading, and subject to too much spin.

If you do an internet search for % drops during the 90’s crash, I think you

Get something like 32% national house price drop.

Which I can say was nothing like the drop I took when I sold in 1993 (40% down)

So I’m looking at ‘year’ instead of ‘%’ where I am, some houses are at around 2003 prices.

(And falling). Which is getting very close to the figure I would jump in.

It’s just a shame they are properties in rough areas I don’t want to live.

Don't forget also that the VIs will be calling the bottom of the market after every month of falls; if they have the audacity to say the cycle is at it's bottom now (as they did last week), can you imagine the cr@p they'll be coming out with in the future!

"Prices are at their lowest now and probably won't go down that much more...BUY, BUY, BUY! PPLLLLLEAAAASSSEEE!"

Sadly, many will believe this and jump in, hence the decline won't be at a uniform rate.

[AteMoose]

What happened to the HPC compitition? people were asked last year what house prices would have done in a year and the data stored in a spreadsheet, property is up so i guess the bull are currently running. Does anyone have a link to the thread?

[look to the past]

I went shopping in Norwich on Saturday – expecting to see this retail slowdown.

But there was no slowdown – the crash is off at the moment (the average person cannot see any problems yet)

I think we will loose 3% between now a x-mass and then up 5%for summer – leaving next year at a 2% YOY

I have also noticed that there are now fewer properties for sale than before (in the areas I have been looking)

[undeservingrich]

Having lived though the last HPC in 1991 I would expect the pattern to be similar i.e. small consecutive falls month on month for 18 months.

Say -1.6% per month

However as Hegel put it

We learn from history that we do not learn from history.

[The Masked Tulip]

I went shopping in Norwich on Saturday – expecting to see this retail slowdown.

But there was no slowdown

I popped into Dixons today looking for a smallish TV for my Mum's bedroom and was gobsmacked by how expensive the TVs were in there. They were all these flatscreen jobs and even the small ones, PC monitor size, were four to five hundred pounds. Larger ones were £1200 to £2000 - and not a reduced or 'for sale' sign in sight. Many of them were not digital either which, if you paying that much for a TV now, then digital is something that you really want.

I just got the impression, IMPO, that the goods were:

a) overpriced

seller was simply greedy

c) all this talk by sellers of a dire high street did not seem to end up in reduced prices.

[AteMoose]

I was in next on sunday, amazed that the price reductions on clothing has failed to happen, jeans and tshirts are the same price if not more expensive than they were 3 years ago, the older retails dont seem to have dropped there prices at all..

[Michael]

falls will be very slow.....houses aren't a liquid asset like shares so price swings (especially on the way down)are steadier........eg the auctions mentioned in another thread reveal the true must-sell-now price even though most homeowners who don't have to sell refuse to cut prices by much..........