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Uk 2010 .. Romania 1980?

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I've been thinking for some years there are a lot of similiarities between the rising and out of control bureaucracy in some western nations nd the bureaucracy that eventually killed communism in Eastern Europe. People forget thatin the early years of communism the governments were actually carrying out impressive national development programs. Such as dam building, highways, railways, national electrification, mass housing development, water systems and so on. Along with industrial development and education programs and national health care. Especially Stalinist development was rapid.

But by the 1980's some communist east european nations the bureaucracy was so insane they actually walked away from half built electric dams, that were 10 years behind schedule. This same people had been able to tame grat rivers decades before. Its sort of like major projects in Britain today.. astonishingly slow, and over budget.. and that is the few that somehow make it through all the barriers to begin construction.

These problems were even overwhelming the natural, global technological development so by the early 80's people in east european nations were seeing actual falling standards of living. Nicolai Caecescu and his government had a brilliant reason they gave the public for the falling standard of living. They said that they had to decided to once and for all pay off Romania's foreign debts. That it would take several years of pain/austerity, and then Romania would be free of that debt for ever. And this was widely supported by the people of Romania.

However after a few years, the bureaucracy kept growing and the standard of living actually continued to decline. Like any system the process is geometric not linear. The rot accelerates. And the people started questioning the austerity and growing questioning of the system itself.

I've seen a divergence where Germany and France adn friends are now pulling out of the recession and seeing industrial growth. While the UK is at the start of 'painful years of austerity'. Greece, Ireland and soon to be Portugal have already failed, but the EU has decided to give them unlimited cash to keep going. Something the Russians were not in a position to do in the late 80's.

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If the Romanian metaphor is accurate does that mean we get to machine gun the hated face of the elite in a decade's time? Not all so bad is it?

I say to people talking about leaving the country before it breaks down.. what give up my front row seats after waiting all this time?

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I've seen a divergence where Germany and France adn friends are now pulling out of the recession and seeing industrial growth. While the UK is at the start of 'painful years of austerity'.

The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

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The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

Agreed! Even I must confess that I got fooled by it when I first arrived in the UK, over 10 years ago.

Then, single, no kids and renting, I was looking back at France and thinking how great, affordable and efficient the UK appeared to be. It took me years to realise that in fact I pay more tax in the UK than France, that the UK is nowhere near kids friendly (unless you are very rich), that infrastructures (parks, motorways, sports, public transport...) are worthy of developing countries but not developed ones, that the UK is completely unregulated (energy, banking, insurance, etc.).

But most importantly, I have realised that the UK is built on sand, it is one big illusion and UK is indeed as short termist as it gets. Reality is catching ******** Britain up unfortunately. I could put up with it until recently because I earned a lot more (even after tax) but now after a 30% devaluation there isn't much keeping me in the UK, other than having to wait end of school term before moving out. How sad the UK has become...

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The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

I dont know about 30 years. By 1997 debts were low, manufacturing was recovering, the trade imbalance was correcting, in macroeconomic terms, we were doing OK.

The austerity bit, well, germany and france havent had a liebour govt leave them with 13%+ deficits, theirs were much like the Major 1990s recession deficits of 5-6%, so they dont need austerity. Only ourselves, the US and Ireland (and iceland) have been mismananged to such an extent.

Our problem is simply Gordon Brown. The man was unhinged.

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The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

UK is run for the benefit of the already got rich quick, the City skimmers and Global Corporations operating via offshore entities - these people are not really interested in the UK investing in industry/manufacturing for the long term just the preservation of their wealth and status and being able to operate in a country where the masses cannot join the dots :angry:

Do you remember when Brown and Blair used to laugh and brag at 'old europe' around 2000 to 2005 :lol:

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The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

Yep, it wasn't all Thatchter's/Brown's fault.

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If France is so good, why did they have riots that got so bad that after they seized fuel depots, the army had to be called in? And by the early 2020s at the very latest London will blow up like Cairo, with 500, 000+ people wrecking central London instead of under 500 after daily conditions have gotten so bad.

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If France is so good, why did they have riots that got so bad that after they seized fuel depots, the army had to be called in? And by the early 2020s at the very latest London will blow up like Cairo, with 500, 000+ people wrecking central London instead of under 500 after daily conditions have gotten so bad.

if you are getting your news from the BBC there isn't much I can do to help! Good luck...

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If France is so good, why did they have riots that got so bad that after they seized fuel depots, the army had to be called in? And by the early 2020s at the very latest London will blow up like Cairo, with 500, 000+ people wrecking central London instead of under 500 after daily conditions have gotten so bad.

I will answer part of your question though; on the subject of rioting in general. French people riot because they don't like to be shafted, unlike British people who seem to really enjoy the shafting and are quick to bend over lower asking for more.

I am obviously only stating the fact and would not dare judge either French or British practices, I suppose getting shafted is one of the those few pleasures left in the UK (together with shopping on Sundays), all I know is that the day I start bending over I will know I have spent too long here...

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Romania eventually paid off their debt (to the UK?) after exporting just about everything of any value from the country e.g. food. The fall in living standards was insane though.

Edited by cica

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The UK is paying the price of 30 years of the short termist thinking that up to 2008 was seen as Britain getting wealthier by adopting get rich quick schemes while the likes of Germany and France were stuck in the old world of investing for the long term.

It's tortoise and hare economics.

I agree.

Prime example being money earned from North Sea oil reserves.

The money we earned from this just got put into the treasury black hole. Norwary, by comparison, isolates the money earned from their oil sales and puts it into a sort of "sovereign" trust fund. Its worth Billions.

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I will answer part of your question though; on the subject of rioting in general. French people riot because they don't like to be shafted, unlike British people who seem to really enjoy the shafting and are quick to bend over lower asking for more.

I am obviously only stating the fact and would not dare judge either French or British practices, I suppose getting shafted is one of the those few pleasures left in the UK (together with shopping on Sundays), all I know is that the day I start bending over I will know I have spent too long here...

Agreed. In France the many myriad vested interests are quick to protect their corner be they the farmers or unions however the luxury of having successive government willing to protect their personal interests is going to end soon. The economic troubles with in the Euro will see to that. I was talking to someone in France the other night who seemed to think that they import very little from the far East i.e. China, and that most of their domestic goods were manufactured in country When I got them to look at where their possessions came from they were shocked, especially so when they then realized that their automotive industry is mostly state supported.

I think that your analogy of know if your British or not very apt. However it seems that the French masses are politically naive and will find the next ten years a real shock when their protests go unanswered. This will be especially poignant as they wake up to the damage that the EU has perpetrated upon them. :mellow:

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If the Romanian metaphor is accurate does that mean we get to machine gun the hated face of the elite in a decade's time? Not all so bad is it?

"he and his wife were executed following a televised and hastily organised two-hour court session"

I would be happy to pay my licence fee if the BBC could be persuaded to televise trials of our politiicans, "regulators" and bankers.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

Agreed! Even I must confess that I got fooled by it when I first arrived in the UK, over 10 years ago.

Then, single, no kids and renting, I was looking back at France and thinking how great, affordable and efficient the UK appeared to be. It took me years to realise that in fact I pay more tax in the UK than France, that the UK is nowhere near kids friendly (unless you are very rich), that infrastructures (parks, motorways, sports, public transport...) are worthy of developing countries but not developed ones, that the UK is completely unregulated (energy, banking, insurance, etc.).

But most importantly, I have realised that the UK is built on sand, it is one big illusion and UK is indeed as short termist as it gets. Reality is catching ******** Britain up unfortunately. I could put up with it until recently because I earned a lot more (even after tax) but now after a 30% devaluation there isn't much keeping me in the UK, other than having to wait end of school term before moving out. How sad the UK has become...

C'est bien ca, et je suis d'accord! Countries like the UK and US seem to be able to tax very highly and yet deliver nothing for it, so we are talking about mismanagement and incompetence, rather than failed ideology. The basic infrastructure in the UK is a joke by first world international standards and worryingly I feel the analogy to Romania a generation ago is not all that wide of the mark.

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I agree.

Prime example being money earned from North Sea oil reserves.

The money we earned from this just got put into the treasury black hole. Norwary, by comparison, isolates the money earned from their oil sales and puts it into a sort of "sovereign" trust fund. Its worth Billions.

it's full of toxic crap, and is worth billions less than if they'd just left the oil in the ground!

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

it's full of toxic crap, and is worth billions less than if they'd just left the oil in the ground!

Ah, but a small number of people, perhaps less than a dozen, will have benefited enormously from its extraction. These people do not care if the people of Norway have been robbed of the resources under their feet. These people steal and they do it legally under what they euphemistically call "the system". I think about this in terms of all the resources under the ground in Canada and Australia - enough to make every single person in their small populations extremely wealthy, and yet there is poverty in both countries, and a few hundred people in each richer than any one else on earth.

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Ah, but a small number of people, perhaps less than a dozen, will have benefited enormously from its extraction. These people do not care if the people of Norway have been robbed of the resources under their feet. These people steal and they do it legally under what they euphemistically call "the system". I think about this in terms of all the resources under the ground in Canada and Australia - enough to make every single person in their small populations extremely wealthy, and yet there is poverty in both countries, and a few hundred people in each richer than any one else on earth.

I thought about ti too when I visited family in Canada. Saudi Arabia has probably less export revenue from resources than Canada, and is able to deliver the same public services.. but with no income tax, no sales taxes, no capital gains.

A friend pointed out that Saudi Arabia probably does not have private banks and 'investors' taking a very large percentage of the economy. The state outright owns the resources and develops paying cash, instead of borrowing.

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I thought about ti too when I visited family in Canada. Saudi Arabia has probably less export revenue from resources than Canada, and is able to deliver the same public services.. but with no income tax, no sales taxes, no capital gains.

but they do deny the populous access to natural resources using threats of violence.

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it's full of toxic crap, and is worth billions less than if they'd just left the oil in the ground!

Sorry, I've missed something here.

Are you talking about the environmental cost of Norwegian oil outweighing its profits in the long run (global warming etc.)? Because I'm pretty sure the Norwegian state pension fund does have billions in it, and is the property of the people of Norway.

Genuine question, I'm just not sure what you're on about.

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Are you talking about the environmental cost of Norwegian oil outweighing its profits in the long run (global warming etc.)?

no, I'm saying that leaving the oil in the ground would be worth more than financial assets for which it has been exchanged.

e.g. google Norway Central Bank Sues Citigroup.

Because I'm pretty sure the Norwegian state pension fund does have billions in it

and would have billions more if they'd just left the oil in the ground!

and is the property of the people of Norway.

:lol:

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This is why if you run a pension fund you don't do the lazy thing and buy mutual funds.. or crazily let one of the banks 'manage' it for you.

Instead you should buy up companies outright and run them yourself. Providing them with cheap borrowing when needed. And buy a portfolio of things like commercial real estate over time.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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