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Realistbear

Pound Just Broke The Technical Support Level Of 1.5960

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GBP/USD(CCY: GBPUSD=X )

Last Trade: 1.5959

Trade Time: 13:31

Change: 0.0032 (0.20%)

Bid:

Not a good day for the Pound: Huge leap in current account deficit and worst trade figures ever. Surprised £ has not gone down more.

1.5960 was apprently the technical support level which, if broken, would drop us down to 1.58.

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Ring a ring of Posens.

A pocket full of trash.

Atishoo atishoo.

Sterling falls down.

How much value stelring value in the economy, savings, earnings and pensions has the fed plant destroyed with his latest QE shite outburst.

Funny how the trade deficit just gets worse and worse as the currency is destroyed, funny that - nobody suggested that the bankrupt of england were talking out of their **** when keeping the bubble going and destroying the currency was out forward as a means to enriching the nationing - at least is what the media and they themselves would have us believe.

Edited by OnlyMe

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GBP/USD(CCY: GBPUSD=X )

Last Trade: 1.5979

Trade Time: 14:42

Change: 0.0012 (0.07%)

So much for "technical" analysis. The so-called support level of 1.5960 was broken and then the buying began--not the selling!

It will take more than a HPC, ever-widening trade gaps, riots in the street, expanding deficits and rising unemployment to keep Sterling from rising against all comers.

Edited by Realistbear

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So much for "technical" analysis. The so-called support level of 1.5960 was broken and then the buying began--not the selling!

Dark forces intervention?

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Currencies

Currency Pair Price Change

GBP to USD 1.5991 +0.01

GBP to EUR 1.1351 -0.0005

GBP to JPY 131.6260 +0.9326

GBP to TRY 2.4976 +0.0007

GBP to THB 48.4942 +0.0149

More currencies rates »

Up against all the majors except the Euro. See what some really bad news can do? :lol:

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Currencies

Currency Pair Price Change

GBP to USD 1.5991 +0.01

GBP to EUR 1.1351 -0.0005

GBP to JPY 131.6260 +0.9326

GBP to TRY 2.4976 +0.0007

GBP to THB 48.4942 +0.0149

More currencies rates »

Up against all the majors except the Euro. See what some really bad news can do? :lol:

How is it doing against the loaf or the council tax?

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How is it doing against the loaf or the council tax?

We make our own bread and our local council have frozen council tax (they fear riots).

The big item is going down though: houses. The next biggest item, wages are mostly frozen or dissapearing as unemployment is quite bad around here (a lot of government jobs).

As more and more people lose jobs they will start to spend less and as a result demand will fall and when demand falls sellers have to reduce their prices. People will also tend to save more and spend less as they fear the future putting further pressure on prices--at least on discretionaries and discretionaries were a big part of Gordon's bubble (cars, holidays, big screen TVs, boozing in the pub) Keep it going long enough and those prices all start to head in one general direction and you know what happens then.

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We make our own bread and our local council have frozen council tax (they fear riots).

The big item is going down though: houses. The next biggest item, wages are mostly frozen or dissapearing as unemployment is quite bad around here (a lot of government jobs).

As more and more people lose jobs they will start to spend less and as a result demand will fall and when demand falls sellers have to reduce their prices. People will also tend to save more and spend less as they fear the future putting further pressure on prices--at least on discretionaries and discretionaries were a big part of Gordon's bubble (cars, holidays, big screen TVs, boozing in the pub) Keep it going long enough and those prices all start to head in one general direction and you know what happens then.

Yes, peoples stamdard of living has been destroyed by inflation.

:)

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GBP/USD(CCY: GBPUSD=X )

Last Trade: 1.5959

Trade Time: 13:31

Change: 0.0032 (0.20%)

Bid:

Not a good day for the Pound: Huge leap in current account deficit and worst trade figures ever. Surprised £ has not gone down more.

1.5960 was apprently the technical support level which, if broken, would drop us down to 1.58.

I thought it broke it yesterday as well?

Then those nice central banking chappies will have clubbed together to support it like they "helped" devalue the yen recently. Those nice central banker chappies don't want a country to tip over the edge of the cliff in case it pulls others over with it.

Is there lots of money being made my Forex traders in this rigged market?

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Yes, peoples stamdard of living has been destroyed by inflation.

:)

Our standard has risen somewhat. Cheaper housing is a big one. About 35% deflation in housing cost since the peak.

Making our own bread is really choice and it is an increase in standards for us. We also drive 50% less and walk more and have seen a 30% drop in our fuel costs. Aldi has replaced Tescos and that is another 10% or so a month saved.

I think Posen is right--the present rises in prices (probably due to the QE) will wane and reality will set in once again: skintness. Skintness and rising prices are not a good mix and something has to give and it is always prices.

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Our standard has risen somewhat. Cheaper housing is a big one. About 35% deflation in housing cost since the peak.

Making our own bread is really choice and it is an increase in standards for us. We also drive 50% less and walk more and have seen a 30% drop in our fuel costs. Aldi has replaced Tescos and that is another 10% or so a month saved.

I think Posen is right--the present rises in prices (probably due to the QE) will wane and reality will set in once again: skintness. Skintness and rising prices are not a good mix and something has to give and it is always prices.

Where and when has that happened?

A full list would be great - you've never given me one yet, despite me asking you 3 times.

All i see, when checking the facts, evidence and history is inflation until destruction.

No exceptions. None.

Or are you telling me it's different this time?

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Where and when has that happened?

A full list would be great - you've never given me one yet, despite me asking you 3 times.

All i see, when checking the facts, evidence and history is inflation until destruction.

No exceptions. None.

Or are you telling me it's different this time?

It's happened in Japan for 20 odd years. No sign of inflation there despite all best efforts. Not even stagflation, just deflation. Sometimes you just don't get what you want in this life, even if you can print money ad infinitum.

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I think Posen is right--the present rises in prices (probably due to the QE) will wane and reality will set in once again: skintness. Skintness and rising prices are not a good mix and something has to give and it is always prices.

Prices rises

1. QE giving spivs and specs money to bet on commodities

2. Sterling devaluation (not connected to QE it happened before)

3. Executive pay spiralling in the UK, as they use inflation expectations to push prices up to increase profits and wages

4. 3 means that greedy bosses that do not have market clout, lose sales due to their price increases and go bust - this limits competition and feeds 3

Edited by Redhat Sly

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Where and when has that happened?

A full list would be great - you've never given me one yet, despite me asking you 3 times.

All i see, when checking the facts, evidence and history is inflation until destruction.

No exceptions. None.

Or are you telling me it's different this time?

http://www.munknee.com/2010/07/the-case-for-a-deflationary-depression/

The economy moves from deflationary stages to inflationary stages. Its cyclical and a way of stating boom and bust and each cycle varies as to the boomness or bustness. It is never a one way bet or a Gordonina scenario of boom only (no bust). Right now we are in a sharp deflationary cycle if you measure the value of our number one purchase: houses. Loans rates have deflated also and are not helping house prices.

When bubbles burst they: DE flate.

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http://www.munknee.com/2010/07/the-case-for-a-deflationary-depression/

The economy moves from deflationary stages to inflationary stages. Its cyclical and a way of stating boom and bust and each cycle varies as to the boomness or bustness. It is never a one way bet or a Gordonina scenario of boom only (no bust). Right now we are in a sharp deflationary cycle if you measure the value of our number one purchase: houses. Loans rates have deflated also and are not helping house prices.

When bubbles burst they: DE flate.

Yes, but now this is the fifth time I ask you this - do you have a list of deflations?

All you have to do to answer my point is list, say 10 of histories deflations under a fiat monetary system and I am silenced. That you continue to fail to do so will be taken as admission that you know all fiat systems continually inflate until collapse.

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Yes, but now this is the fifth time I ask you this - do you have a list of deflations?

All you have to do to answer my point is list, say 10 of histories deflations under a fiat monetary system and I am silenced. That you continue to fail to do so will be taken as admission that you know all fiat systems continually inflate until collapse.

JAPAN is in a deflationary phase. We are in a deflationary cycle as measured by our biggest financial commodity: house prices.

The great depression saw cycles of deflation.

Post-south sea bubble, Post tulip mania, 1837 financial collapse in US spreading to Europe

Looking at our own history Edward II faced a deflationay phase similar to that of the Tudors post dissolution.

Deflation is ever present and rears its head and goes away again. Like I said--our economy is dynamic and inflation-deflation is just part of the cycle. prices rise and prices fall. I think you are seeing it from some sort of technical stance that denies the cycle.

Embrace the reality of deflation and make it your friend--avoid debt, buy bonds and don't hang onto inflation hedges too long.

Read Nick's book as it is the seminal work on the reality of deflation as part of the economic cycle:

http://tranzitioning.com/index.php/deflation-in-history

Kondratieff also noticed distinct phases within each cycle that related to people's mood and sentiment. Today, these moods are often described as "seasons," or economic trends. Wikipedia describes these seasons as Spring (Inflationary Growth), Summer (Stagflation), Fall (Deflationary Growth), and Winter (Depression):
Edited by Realistbear

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JAPAN is in a deflationary phase. We are in a deflationary cycle as measured by our biggest financial commodity: house prices.

Japan had no deflation, it carry traded and exported it's inflation. We also have inflation.

The great depression saw cycles of deflation.

Gold standard. I asked about fiat money.

Post-south sea bubble, Post tulip mania, 1837 financial collapse in US spreading to Europe

Looking at our own history Edward II faced a deflationay phase similar to that of the Tudors post dissolution.

Deflation is ever present and rears its head and goes away again. Like I said--our economy is dynamic and inflation-deflation is just part of the cycle. prices rise and prices fall. I think you are seeing it from some sort of technical stance that denies the cycle.

Embrace the reality of deflation and make it your friend--avoid debt, buy bonds and don't hang onto inflation hedges too long.

Read Nick's book as it is the seminal work on the reality of deflation as part of the economic cycle:

http://tranzitioning.com/index.php/deflation-in-history

Kondratieff also noticed distinct phases within each cycle that related to people's mood and sentiment. Today, these moods are often described as "seasons," or economic trends. Wikipedia describes these seasons as Spring (Inflationary Growth), Summer (Stagflation), Fall (Deflationary Growth), and Winter (Depression):

And all the other examples you give are of deflation happening after a collapse, which i will hapily agree with.

So I ask you again - can you list say 10 examples of deflation occuring before a complete economic collapse under a fiat monetary system?

So far you've come up with zip.

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Japan had no deflation, it carry traded and exported it's inflation. We also have inflation.

Gold standard. I asked about fiat money.

And all the other examples you give are of deflation happening after a collapse, which i will hapily agree with.

So I ask you again - can you list say 10 examples of deflation occuring before a complete economic collapse under a fiat monetary system?

So far you've come up with zip.

If you deny inflation is an economic phenomenon that exists you will reject all examples (such as the ones I listed).

Every period of deflation is preceded by a period of inflation or boom. Tautologous. Its a cycle--boom-bust/inflation-deflation/up-down

Of course every period of deflation follows collapse--our economy is ciollapsing if you measure house prices, debt levels, unemployment, trade........ We are headed right into a deflationary phase.

Edited by Realistbear

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If you deny inflation is an economic phenomenon that exists you will reject all examples (such as the ones I listed).

Not at all. I fully understand that there can be deflation (for example under the gold standard for about a 100 years price levels gently deflated as population growth and productivity outstripped gold production.

Every period of deflation is preceded by a period of inflation or boom. Tautologous. Its a cycle--boom-bust/inflation-deflation/up-down

Of course every period of deflation follows collapse--our economy is ciollapsing if you measure house prices, debt levels, unemployment, trade........ We are headed right into a deflationary phase.

A full economic collapse follows inflationary periods, always.

Our inflationary period started in the 1920's and still continues.

Do you have any examples of deflation occuring before economic collapse under a fiat money regime?

10 will do, if it's such a common phenomenon.

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Not at all. I fully understand that there can be deflation (for example under the gold standard for about a 100 years price levels gently deflated as population growth and productivity outstripped gold production.

A full economic collapse follows inflationary periods, always.

Our inflationary period started in the 1920's and still continues.

Do you have any examples of deflation occuring before economic collapse under a fiat money regime?

10 will do, if it's such a common phenomenon.

You cannot escape the cycle--there have always been periods of inflation followed by deflation. Or, if you like, periods of deflation followed by inflation.

Deflation is not a cause of economic collapse but a symptom of it. The question needs to be correctly stated. Inflation is fuelled by a boom even though it may be latent inflation. We had 10 years of HPI during the |bronw boom now we face a similar period of HP-deflation.

All economic history is a cycle--your question tries to presuppose the non-existence of the cycle.

"Fiat" is meaningless in this context. Barter as a form of trade is prehistory--at least a s a macroeconmic means of trade.. Everything is fiat--even gold as fiat simply means "value ascribed to." There is no intrinsic value as everything is subject to the market flux or cycle. Gold goes up and gold goes down. Currencies go up and currencies go down. Both are under the "fiat" or forces of the market.

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You cannot escape the cycle--there have always been periods of inflation followed by deflation. Or, if you like, periods of deflation followed by inflation.

Deflation is not a cause of economic collapse but a symptom of it. The question needs to be correctly stated. Inflation is fuelled by a boom even though it may be latent inflation. We had 10 years of HPI during the |bronw boom now we face a similar period of HP-deflation.

All economic history is a cycle--your question tries to presuppose the non-existence of the cycle.

"Fiat" is meaningless in this context. Barter as a form of trade is prehistory--at least a s a macroeconmic means of trade.. Everything is fiat--even gold as fiat simply means "value ascribed to." There is no intrinsic value as everything is subject to the market flux or cycle. Gold goes up and gold goes down. Currencies go up and currencies go down. Both are under the "fiat" or forces of the market.

Let us make this a bit simpler.

Do you have any examples of deflation occuring under a paper money or PC number money standard before a full blown economic collapse?

The answer to this is either yes or no. Very simple response and that's all that is needed.

Edited by Injin

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Let us make this a bit simpler.

Do you have any examples of deflation occuring under a paper money or PC number money standard before a full blown economic collapse?

The answer to this is either yes or no. Very simple response and that's all that is needed.

Some say that deflation followed the boom leading up to the 1929 stock market led collapse.

Money--or the means of exchnage is not a relevant issue IMO. Fiat currency or fiat copper coins are all subject to the flux and have no bearing on inflation or deflation. IMO--its about spending more than you earn (inflation) which has to be corrected by having a period of less earnings and less to spend (deflation). Whether you are spending copper coins, silver $ or £10 notes is not the issue as the fiat ascribed to anything is determined by its acceptability in the market.

Keynes vs. Friedman may be you answer? A never the twain shall meet? Apples vs. oranges etc.

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Some say that deflation followed the boom leading up to the 1929 stock market led collapse.

Money--or the means of exchnage is not a relevant issue IMO. Fiat currency or fiat copper coins are all subject to the flux and have no bearing on inflation or deflation. IMO--its about spending more than you earn (inflation) which has to be corrected by having a period of less earnings and less to spend (deflation). Whether you are spending copper coins, silver $ or £10 notes is not the issue as the fiat ascribed to anything is determined by its acceptability in the market.

Keynes vs. Friedman may be you answer? A never the twain shall meet? Apples vs. oranges etc.

Or even, yes vs no.

Let us make this a bit simpler.

Do you have any examples of deflation occuring under a paper money or PC number money standard before a full blown economic collapse?

The answer to this is either yes or no. Very simple response and that's all that is needed.

After this, what you do is put a one word answer, either yes or no. :) Theres no need to flail on like you are on crystal meth.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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