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Realistbear

G D P Revised Data Due Today - How Unexpected Will It Be?

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2 sets of important data out today--GDP revsions and current account deficit.

My guess: GDP revised down 0.3%, worse than expected.

Current account: much larger deficit than expected.

A very wise man once said:

"Live in expectancy and avoid expectations then you will never be disappointed." Wm. P. Young

Edited by Realistbear

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My guess: GDP revised down 0.3%, worse than expected.

First stab was -0.5%, then revised to -0.6% and now you're expecting -0.9%?!

Unlikely I think.

My bet is *no change*

If it did go down to -0.9% it would push Libya and Fukushima off the headlines... :rolleyes:

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First stab was -0.5%, then revised to -0.6% and now you're expecting -0.9%?!

Unlikely I think.

My bet is *no change*

If it did go down to -0.9% it would push Libya and Fukushima off the headlines... :rolleyes:

We are overdue a "shock revision" just as we are overdue a drop in house prices that even the most bullish VI can no longer refer to as reflecting a "subdued" market. Where have all the exciting numbers gone recently? -0.2% - 0.8% no longer does it for me--I WANT MORE! (stares ahead with bulging blood shot eyes). :lol:

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Reuters

The final reading of fourth-quarter GDP is due at 9:30 a.m. The market will be particularly focussed on whether the previous shock estimate of a 0.6-percent contraction will be maintained.

anyone know if forex has a guess--not sure of their link.

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Reuters

The final reading of fourth-quarter GDP is due at 9:30 a.m. The market will be particularly focussed on whether the previous shock estimate of a 0.6-percent contraction will be maintained.

anyone know if forex has a guess--not sure of their link.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Forex reckon a hold a -0.6%.

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10 minutes to go.

Sterling ticking up so someone must be expected some good news for the UK economy.

Edit: 9 minutes :)

Edit No.2: 8 minutes

Edit No.3: 6 minutes (excitement reaches fever pitch)

Edit No. 4: Sterling up 28 pips in anticipation of unexpectedly good numbers, 5 minutes to go

Edited by Realistbear

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I'm not sure why so much importance is placed on the first iteration, it is notoriously incomplete. Does anyone even know how everything is treated eg If I earn £10 post tax, and I put it in the bank, how does this compare in GDP terms to giving it to a babysitter cash in hand? Does GDP increase?

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Gross domestic product contracted by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised down from the previously estimated fall of 0.5 per cent. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 is now 1.5 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

The most recent ONS data--to be revised in 2 minutes. :ph34r:

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More interestingly, it also says that lending to individuals is up to 2bn from 1.2bn (anyone know the historical figures?) and money supply is down to -0.3% from 0.8%, 0.7% expected

Edited by FaFa!

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-0.5% sez Forex Factory

Is that official or their guess?

Edit:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

GDP growth contracted by 0.5 per cent in the latest quarter, revised from a fall of 0.6 per cent previously published. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 is now 1.5 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Unexpectedly good number.

Edited by Realistbear

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Not much reaction in the markets.

Looks like a wet rocket?

Perhaps waiting for the more newsworthy current account deficit numbers--anyone know when these are due?

Edited by Realistbear

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More interestingly, it also says that lending to individuals is up to 2bn from 1.2bn (anyone know the historical figures?)

The FF chart shows March '10 lending to individuals as 2.1bn, which fell to 0.6bn the following month. (In March 07, it was 11.2bn)

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It's still a hefty negative number. If we get another negative in April for Q1 2011 then we're officially in recession.

Could the unexpectedly bad trade numbers point to just such a scenario--back to recession?

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Could the unexpectedly bad trade numbers point to just such a scenario--back to recession?

Employment figures would suggest that output did expand in Q4 and the ONS figures will likely be revised eventually to show this. The alternative to this would be a giant bounce in Q1. Private sector employment has been rising pretty strongly over the last 6 months, outweighing public sector job cuts and leading to a fairly descent rise in employment. The PMI data suggested a far stronger picture also.

(http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/3/16/uk-labour-demand-rising-consistent-with-ongoing-recovery.html)

The labour force survey (LFS) measure of employment rose by 32,000 in the three months to January from the prior three months, with a 77,000 gain in private workers offsetting losses of 45,000 in the public sector (including 6,000 in the publicly owned banks). Full-time employment, moreover, rose by 75,000, outweighing a 43,000 decline in part-time working.

Private companies do not hire extra workers if output is falling.

Once it is established output is expanding 2%~ y/y interest rates will rise almost immediately. I would question the ONS data and wonder if the data presented is accurate or being manipulated to keep IR down and HPC on ice.

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Employment figures would suggest that output did expand in Q4 and the ONS figures will likely be revised eventually to show this. The alternative to this would be a giant bounce in Q1. Private sector employment has been rising pretty strongly over the last 6 months, outweighing public sector job cuts and leading to a fairly descent rise in employment. The PMI data suggested a far stronger picture also.

(http://www.moneymove...g-recovery.html)

Private companies do not hire extra workers if output is falling.

Once it is established output is expanding 2%~ y/y interest rates will rise almost immediately. I would question the ONS data and wonder if the data presented is accurate or being manipulated to keep IR down and HPC on ice.

they do if public sector place a load of orders.

Borrowing was severe this quarter IIRC, and with the cuts, looks like they may be cooking the figures to avoid recession in the headlines.

I suspect the standstill new jobs figure is way above 32,000, as it is around 400,000 in the US....with 5 times the population, that would suggest 80,000 new jobs a month required just to stand still.

How many new jobs are needed to be created for the employed numbers to remain static.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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