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el duderino

Ok, It's Going To Crash, But When To Step On?

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Just out of curiosity,

How much will u guys expect the national average house price to drop in order to jump on the ladder? Will a 30% drop be good enough or u ‘ll just wait for average Joe to loose any confidence in the market whatsoever?

I just see this HPC going too long and too slow and keep renting crap terraced rooms to save for a deposit could be a little frustrating…

+there’s a chance that home owners will ?easily? hold their properties and BTLs will only sell their crap box holes that noone wants anyway. I don’t want to still rent in 2009 and keep wondering whereas to join or not and find out that I missed the train.

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Just out of curiosity,

How much will u guys expect the national average house price to drop in order to jump on the ladder? Will a 30% drop be good enough or u ‘ll just wait for average Joe to loose any confidence in the market whatsoever?

I just see this HPC going too long and too slow and keep renting crap terraced rooms to save for a deposit could be a little frustrating…

+there’s a chance that home owners will ?easily? hold their properties and BTLs will only sell their crap box holes that noone wants anyway. I don’t want to still rent in 2009 and keep wondering whereas to join or not and find out that I missed the train.

I will watch my penny pot grow while watching prices fall, when i start to think that things look normal then i will buy, or by that time i might not want to. Im in a situation where i have all the time in the world really so its quite possible ill wait until i consider it to be on its knees, who knows ey,

Its hard to get lost when you have nowhere to go :)

EDITED:

Oh and hiya.

Edited by theChuz

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Just out of curiosity,

How much will u guys expect the national average house price to drop in order to jump on the ladder? Will a 30% drop be good enough or u ‘ll just wait for average Joe to loose any confidence in the market whatsoever?

I just see this HPC going too long and too slow and keep renting crap terraced rooms to save for a deposit could be a little frustrating…

+there’s a chance that home owners will ?easily? hold their properties and BTLs will only sell their crap box holes that noone wants anyway. I don’t want to still rent in 2009 and keep wondering whereas to join or not and find out that I missed the train.

Forget all that. Have you bought yourself some gold yet?

Ignore me mate, it's an in-house joke - welcome to the site :D

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How much will u guys expect the national average house price to drop in order to jump on the ladder? Will a 30% drop be good enough or u ‘ll just wait for average Joe to loose any confidence in the market whatsoever?

There are two versions of the crash thinking: In one the excess price:earnings ratio will unwind over 5-7 years similar to 1989-1995, but because inflation is lower now the nominal reduction will larger, somewhere between 25% and 35% depending on how bearish you are; the other says that this housing peak is partly supported by low IRs and that, although higher in price:earnings terms than the 1989 peak, the ‘bubble’ component is actually significantly less – this predicts 10% to 20% depending on how IRs pan out and allows for a ‘soft landing’ scenario if by some weird combination of circumstances IRs were drop to about 3.5%. Either way, the drop will take at least 5 years, but, as you say, it might be worth taking a look in maybe 2-3 years time. In the meantime have fun contemplating the possibility of total economic meltdown, in which case all bets are off – invest in crates of baked beans, canned water, gold, and portable generators. ;)

Edited by spline

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Its a difficult situation. I am 100% convinced we are heading into a recession. The economy looks week and its not just in this country so where does it help?

On the PLUS SIDE

house prices will collapse. To put it into perspective - people believe theat house prices are the asking price. I DO NOT. The house is worth either above or below the last sold. The prices in my area are 30-40% less than the asking price. As far are the "house price" is concerned I think that the EA's asking prices WILL fall to selling prices (In my case 30% less) as far as the actual purchase price I believe these wil fall maybe 5-10% maximum.

EG house for sale with an asking price of £179,995

Last sold price for that street was £135000

I believe you will get that house for £135,000 in the next 12 months.

I also believe that you MAY get that house for 125,000 to £130,000 if the economy does not pick up in the next 3-4 years. So the actual REAL drop in price is only 5-8% on the PEAK price.

The problem is PEOPLE ARE GREEDY - When the EA's get found out that they are grossly OVERPRICING property the sellers - who then become buyers - will realise that their next house is also 30-40% overprice and therefore there will be CORRECTION.

THE DOWNSIDE

With the economy looking weak I believe interest rates WILL rise before CHRISTMAS. I believe that they may rise as high as 7% in the next few years - this mean that the mortgage you get if its a repayment mortgage will not dissolve as quick. I.E. The monthly payment of say £900 will only pay £300 off the loan. Where at 4.5% your repayment may be £800 with £300 payed off the loan. I.E. It will cost you more TO FINISH THE LOAN like-for-like. The good news is the LOAN VALUE should be a lot less.

Like CHAZ I am saving money - interest rates rise so my money is MAKING money. Therfore the house price is coming down - my deposit is going up and therefor my actually load amount will be less. When I get to a point where my mortage is for say £100,000 I will BUY.

My wage and partners based on 3.5 times salary plus 1 x partnet is £108,000.

There is no right time - you may buy your house and find it drops another 5%. You have to decide what you believe to be a FAIR and AFFORDABLE price.

Good Luck!

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Guest consa
There are two versions of the crash thinking: In one the excess price:earnings ratio will unwind over 5-7 years similar to 1989-1995, but because inflation is lower now the nominal reduction will larger, somewhere between 25% and 35% depending on how bearish you are; the other says that this housing peak is partly supported by low IRs and that, although higher in price:earnings terms than the 1989 peak, the ‘bubble’ component is actually significantly less – this predicts 10% to 20% depending on how IRs pan out and allows for a ‘soft landing’ scenario if by some weird combination of circumstances IRs were drop to about 3.5%. Either way, the drop will take at least 5 years, but, as you say, it might be worth taking a look in maybe 2-3 years time. In the meantime have fun contemplating the possibility of total economic meltdown, in which case all bets are off – invest in crates of baked beans, canned water, gold, and portable generators. ;)

Don't underestimate the falls spline, you could catch a cold.

:)

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Whenever the public becomes utterly sick of the notion of buying property, or the lack of easy credit makes it impossible for your average idiot. Like the disillusionment felt toward TMT shares after the crash, at that stage you know when the market is over sold.

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If you want a purely mathematical based scientific way of working out when is the right time to buy then;

When you see a house price that you say to your self "yeah that seems quite reasonable"

as oposed too

"F*CK THAT" then thats the right time :lol:

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Its a difficult situation. I am 100% convinced we are heading into a recession. The economy looks week and its not just in this country so where does it help?

On the PLUS SIDE

house prices will collapse. To put it into perspective - people believe theat house prices are the asking price. I DO NOT. The house is worth either above or below the last sold. The prices in my area are 30-40% less than the asking price. As far are the "house price" is concerned I think that the EA's asking prices WILL fall to selling prices (In my case 30% less) as far as the actual purchase price I believe these wil fall maybe 5-10% maximum.

EG house for sale with an asking price of £179,995

Last sold price for that street was £135000

I believe you will get that house for £135,000 in the next 12 months.

I also believe that you MAY get that house for 125,000 to £130,000 if the economy does not pick up in the next 3-4 years. So the actual REAL drop in price is only 5-8% on the PEAK price.

The problem is PEOPLE ARE GREEDY - When the EA's get found out that they are grossly OVERPRICING property the sellers - who then become buyers - will realise that their next house is also 30-40% overprice and therefore there will be CORRECTION.

THE DOWNSIDE

With the economy looking weak I believe interest rates WILL rise before CHRISTMAS. I believe that they may rise as high as 7% in the next few years - this mean that the mortgage you get if its a repayment mortgage will not dissolve as quick. I.E. The monthly payment of say £900 will only pay £300 off the loan. Where at 4.5% your repayment may be £800 with £300 payed off the loan. I.E. It will cost you more TO FINISH THE LOAN like-for-like. The good news is the LOAN VALUE should be a lot less.

Like CHAZ I am saving money - interest rates rise so my money is MAKING money. Therfore the house price is coming down - my deposit is going up and therefor my actually load amount will be less. When I get to a point where my mortage is for say £100,000 I will BUY.

My wage and partners based on 3.5 times salary plus 1 x partnet is £108,000.

There is no right time - you may buy your house and find it drops another 5%. You have to decide what you believe to be a FAIR and AFFORDABLE price.

Good Luck!

teddyboy

spot on anlysis.

just what i would expect form a good scouser

affordability should drive all purchases.

forget the hype.

we are heading for economic meltdown and many thosuands of people will regret their debt

use your brains and dont be ripped off

the don

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Nelly.

Thats how we bought our home. we were in negative equity in our flat, and managed to pay it off, when we did, we saw our home and thought "thats a reasonable price". Been here ever since.

Good advice.

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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