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China has been developing fast by taking people who were essentially doing not a lot and making them do stuff, but they are reaching the point (slowly) where this cannot work any more.

Now they have to invest in capital and learn how to be more efficient - so they use fewer man hours to complete any given task.

Efficiency and the use of capital are what has driven rising standards of living throughout history. Good on 'em, I hope in the no too distant future the average Chinaman lives as well as the average Brit does today.

Eventually Africa will follow suit I hope - but they have many political problems there.

China has developed because it has been supressing it's currency and buying US debt, flooding the American market with credit so it can export there and build a maufacturing base. China has now apparently reached escape velocity and does not need this US-CHINA symbiotic deal, and I wonder what they will now do with all those USTs and supermassive dollar FOREX reserves they are sitting on.............

Edited by Britney's Piers
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China has developed because it has been supressing it's currency and buying US debt, flooding the American market with credit so it can export there and build a maufacturing base. China has now apparently reached escape velocity and does not need this US-CHINA symbiotic deal, and I wonder what they will now do with all those USTs and supermassive dollar FOREX reserves they are sitting on.............

its funny how america complains of this when this is exactly what they did after the war.

remember all currencies were fixed to each other until 1972, all linked to a fixed price of gold.

after the war, america held most of the worlds gold. but gold sitting in a vault did nothing so they lent this gold into europe and the rest of the world so that their economies had the liquidity to re-grow and thus would buy american products built in american factories.

the shoe is now on the other foot but they seem to have very short memories.

Edited by mfp123
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Just look at the roads, schools and universities the Chinese have been building in sub-Saharan Africa. They've been aware of this for years and are prepared.

It is all part of the CCP 50 year plan of "peaceful rise" that started in the 80s and is set to complete in 2030. They have the wisdom of Sun Tzu and know that a war avoided is even better than a war won, so they have used economic strategy. Much more effective than the western mindset of "invade and grab" which has now caused a third crusade in Libya, it is a slow suicide for the west which China is happy to sit back and watch.

The Chinese have been using America as patsies for their exports and are now done, they tried doing the same thing with Japan because of the rise of the yen, and started buying up yen, which the Japanese did not like at all (since they have also been using America for export and knew the game when it was played on them) which came to a head with the spat between Japan and China about those fishing boats.

Edited by Britney's Piers
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no because if robots could replace all of us, the issue wouldnt be allocating jobs and work, but instead a new system of ownership would be needed, as to how resources are allocated.

working in a job and earning "money" at the moment is currently how we are all allocated our "claim" on resources and services. not having to work just means that we need a different system of how we all "claim" for things.

the point of parliament was to wrestle control from powerful wealthy kings and if the same situation occured, we would simply make new laws and a create new system of ownership.

the fear of having no job isnt the problem of not having to work - its the fact you lose your allocation of what you can "claim" for.

a good example of "getting stuff" without working is retirement and your pension.

theoretically if robots did everything for us, you could create an advanced system of benefits to allocate resources i.e everyone gets what they need without having to lift a finger. what you are allocated would depend on this new style of "benefits" system.

So we can agree that the endpoint of capitalism is the destruction of capitalism and it's replacement with some kind of 'super socialism' in which we all become clients of the state.

My point was that the 'race to the bottom' is not an aberrant idea introduced from 'outside' the capitalist system- it's a core value of that system. Paying the lowest wages that are consistent with a viable business is one of the things a CEO is paid to do, and if that lowest wage were zero- in the case of a robot- that would be the optimum course to take- despite the fact that if this were done on a mass scale the demand collapse would implode the system.

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Throughout history, automation has replaced people.

How quickly we get to the point where automation replaces humans to provide food & shelter is unknown, but one thing is certain, the service sector will continue to grow as a % of GDP and money will flow into these service sectors as automation continues to make inroads into those manufacturing sectors .

The markets will evolve.

Services will spawn new services, manufacturing will spawn new manufacturing, services will spawn new manufacturing, manufacturing will spawn new services, repeat ad infinitum.

The service sector is itself now being automated and the capital is there to accelerate this trend. What is missing from this analysis is the trend for capital to both accumulate in fewer hands and for those capital holders to prefer automation over human labour.

The notion that human desire is infinite is probably true, but if most of the available wealth is held by an ever dwindling percentage of the worlds population then all that infinite desire will create zero effective demand.

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No so- the primary goal of every business is to make as much profit as possible while employing the fewest people on the lowest wages possible- the race to the bottom is a core value of our civilisation. ( It goes under the rubric of 'productivity')

Were the technology available to replace every single one of us with robot labour the logic of the system is to do it- despite the absurdity of removing demand from the system and the consequent social collapse involved.

The end effect of increased pay demands in china will be to accelerate the automation of jobs as this option becomes cost effective.

We have tonight's winner!

This is exactly what will happen.

Presently manufacturing in China (despite single factories producing the entire world's output of some products) is surprisingly fragmented. I imagine it was something like this during Britain's industrial revolution.

Many of the smaller factories will fall to the wayside and be replaced by more automated facilities there was no point on making X million capital investment in an automated blistercarding machine when you could pay Chinese workers to do the same job manually for a decade.

Have a look at this for the way it's going. I've seen quite a few production lines like this and there's one (in this country - not prepared to say what product but not food) where the only real human intervention in the whole process is opening the doors of the lorry trailer and reversing into the loading bay. Unloading materials and then loading finished goods at the other end is all automated.

Noticed on the right hand side of this video another great bit of innovative technology - the Crown work assist vehicle. I have these and they enable less staff to pick the same number of orders by quickly travelling up and down warehouse racking - Amazon, incidentally, are remarkably backward and inefficient in logistics and have mostly ground level order picking straight off pallets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zB6QXeZNH4

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Just look at the roads, schools and universities the Chinese have been building in sub-Saharan Africa. They've been aware of this for years and are prepared.

Africa is a permanent civil war , with dictators nationalising farms and plants every so often as in Zim recently.

You'd have to be crazy to manufacture on a large scale there.

Even relatively stable African countries like Egypt are in chaos now.

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This is 2008 but they have a long way to catch up.

Chart 1. Hourly compensation costs of manufacturing employees in selected economies and regions, 2008

chart_1.png

As productivity increases fewer workers are needed to produce greater numbers of units and their pay goes up.

Overall the cost per unit falls, unless China is regressing they will either produce more units or the same number

with fewer workers on more money but still a lower cost per unit than before.

Oh ******** that US manufacturing workers get 32.26 an hour.

Whats that? the UAW workers in Detroit (whats left of them?)

Compare like for like - eg textile workers in USA vs in China , the graph is useless if it's comparing workers in the US making hulls for Boeing vs Workers in China working at a rubber band factory.

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The west is not going to "cease" to buy Chinese goods. Production levels, prices and exchange rates keep adjusting themselves to markets. It's been happening since the industrial revolution.

Yeah that ended well for us didn't it? Pity people like you are determined that Chindia should step on the same rakes.

(2) I am arguing using liberal economics knowledge, good old Adam Smith and David Ricardo.

Which is why you're always wrong.

2nd/3rd world needs to develop at a longer and more sustainable level. The only thing nutjobs following A-Level/Adam Smith economic theory will achieve is a massive overheating and eventual collapse of the developing world, which isn't in anyone's interest.

And before you try it, no I don't want Chindia/Africa to remain third/2nd world. Quite the opposite in fact, which is why I view deluded idiots such as Adam Smith and his followers with such contempt.

God bless the laws of unintended consequences. <_<

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The problem is though you think they will go oh well thats alright then shrug their shoulders and forget about it?

My dad still rants and raves about the 3 unequal treaties from 1842. He rants and raves at the way his forefathers were deported from Liverpool docks whenever they asked for more pay. My Grandad when he was alive would relentlessly complain about the 49ers in the US gold rush.

You reckon they'll forget the uber fraud the western nations have done to them?

Yeah, you bang on about this remorselessly whilst never mentioning the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, the slaughter in Tibet, problems in Xinjiang, historical issues with Vietnam etc etc. This utter hypocritical racism is one of the many reasons few foreigners come away from China with anything other than very mixed feelings and also the reason why the Chinese are not much liked by other Asian countries.

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Yeah, you bang on about this remorselessly whilst never mentioning the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, the slaughter in Tibet, problems in Xinjiang, historical issues with Vietnam etc etc. This utter hypocritical racism is one of the many reasons few foreigners come away from China with anything other than very mixed feelings and also the reason why the Chinese are not much liked by other Asian countries.

To be fair, history suggests that the Chinese don't seem to view their own people with much contempt either.

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It is all part of the CCP 50 year plan of "peaceful rise" that started in the 80s and is set to complete in 2030. They have the wisdom of Sun Tzu and know that a war avoided is even better than a war won, so they have used economic strategy. Much more effective than the western mindset of "invade and grab" which has now caused a third crusade in Libya, it is a slow suicide for the west which China is happy to sit back and watch.

:rolleyes:

The CCP has veered this way and that since the death of Chairman Mao. There was a massive bun fight in the CCP during the 80s between the hard liners and the reformers with Deng as the referee. The hard liners won out by murdering the students in 1989, got their boy Jiang Zemin in place but then realised they'd have to compromise if the economy wasn't going to go to pot. There has been this uncomfortable friction within the party ever since, with growth pursued whatever the cost. The massive amount of treasuries they have accumlated isn't due to some master plan, but due to their mercantilist policies and forcing down their labour costs. This is unsustainable and they appear to have finally woken up to this fact. Unfortunately they have the tiger by the tail and it isn't going to be pretty.

I was amused by your citation of Sun Tzu, perhaps you could point out to me where he has been cited by the CCP? Have you even read him? Your rendering of his name in Wade Giles rather than pinyin would indicate a limited knowledge of Chinese. Why not cite Laozi (or Lao Tzu) and his assertion that the best form of government is one where the people are ignorant of its existence? As for the "peaceful rise" God give me strength. The CCP isn't capable of getting violent - they don't even have an aircraft carrier. They have less power projection now relative to the West than Japan did 70 years ago. Praising someone for not doing something they are incapable of doing is ridiculous.

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The problem is though you think they will go oh well thats alright then shrug their shoulders and forget about it?

My dad still rants and raves about the 3 unequal treaties from 1842. He rants and raves at the way his forefathers were deported from Liverpool docks whenever they asked for more pay. My Grandad when he was alive would relentlessly complain about the 49ers in the US gold rush.

You reckon they'll forget the uber fraud the western nations have done to them?

Chinese support for the nutters running Burma....

Chinese support for the tyrants running North Korea

Chinese intimidation of the Taiwanese

Chinese invasion and assimilation of Tibet.

The western nations haven't always been kind to other people.... but neither have the Chinese.

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I sometimes think you might work for the Chinese government.

:lol:

As you probably know, I always argue using liberal economics knowledge, good old Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and in favour of any developing country. Not only China. And in all issues too, housing policy included. Just liberalism.

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Chinese support for the nutters running Burma....

Chinese support for the tyrants running North Korea

Chinese intimidation of the Taiwanese

Chinese invasion and assimilation of Tibet.

The western nations haven't always been kind to other people.... but neither have the Chinese.

there is a difference because taiwan and tibet are historically part of china, so they consider it internal affairs.

china in its history has never stepped outside its own borders. if anything it is very insular and has only just started to interact with the rest of the world.

china in the past has treated its own people badly, of this there is no doubt. but it generally has no interest in other country's affairs.

Edited by mfp123
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there is a difference because taiwan and tibet are historically part of china, so they consider it internal affairs.

china in its history has never stepped outside its own borders. if anything it is very insular and has only just started to interact with the rest of the world.

china in the past has treated its own people badly, of this there is no doubt. but it generally has no interest in other country's affairs.

Taiwan became part of China in the 17th century but was extremely sparsely populated before being annexed by Japan for 50 years. Tibet is historically a part of China in much the same way Scotland is historically a part of England. China's modus operanti is to invade other areas (such as Tibet, Xinjiang, ethnic minority areas in the southwest) and then claim they were Chinese all along.

It is true however that they had little interest in foreign countries. This is due to the fact that under the feudal system they were able to supply their needs internally and until the 19th century any foreign country that invaded them (such as Mongolia and Manchuria) generally sinicised post conquest. So there was little need to engage with foreigners. Now that there is, it would be foolish to draw a comparison to previous behaviour in an entirely different world IMHO.

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<br />By creating jobs. Or do you think a poor African is better off unemployed than employed?<br /><br /><br />Besides, if a new factory opens in an African town, it is up to the locals to decide if they want to apply for these new jobs or not. Right? No?<br /><br /><br />I really don't understand your point.<br />

Watch this for an eye opener - corrupt upper tiers of African management/society & in-your-face African exploitation by UBER 'secretive' Chinese infiltrators/colonists.

OOps they took it off channel

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00s6bgw

African railway

In a moving and often funny documentary, award-winning filmmaker Sean Langan is off to East Africa to ride the rails of the Tazara railroad, whose passenger and goods trains travel through spectacular scenery and a game park teeming with wild animals.

The railway was built by the Chinese just after independence to link Zambia's copper belt to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam, and once carried the region's hopes and dreams. But now it is in crisis. Every day there are derailments, trains running out of fuel and mechanical breakdowns.

Langan meets the train crews, controllers and maintenance crews who battle to keep it going - and at Tazara HQ he is on the track of Tazara's elusive Chinese railway 'advisors' to find out why it is in such a parlous state.

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The railway was built by the Chinese just after independence to link Zambia's copper belt to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam

If that is Zambian independence, then that would be in the 1960s. Any reason why the Africans cannot maintain their own damn railway, 40 years later?

Edited by FaFa!
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Taiwan became part of China in the 17th century but was extremely sparsely populated before being annexed by Japan for 50 years. Tibet is historically a part of China in much the same way Scotland is historically a part of England. China's modus operanti is to invade other areas (such as Tibet, Xinjiang, ethnic minority areas in the southwest) and then claim they were Chinese all along.

It is true however that they had little interest in foreign countries. This is due to the fact that under the feudal system they were able to supply their needs internally and until the 19th century any foreign country that invaded them (such as Mongolia and Manchuria) generally sinicised post conquest. So there was little need to engage with foreigners. Now that there is, it would be foolish to draw a comparison to previous behaviour in an entirely different world IMHO.

the claim to territory goes back hundred of years, for example, taiwans inhabitants were chinese settlers and 85% of the population today is han chinese. does taiwan have a claim to be independant? of course they do, but at the same time from chinas view they consider it part of their country so from their viewpoint no they dont.

tibet is a province of china. china is no more a "single" country than the united states is.

it is made up of seperate provinces, of which tibet is considered one of them. they may have been conquered in the past. but the fact that it was conquered and done several hundred years ago, means that china will obviously consider it as part of their "country".

Edited by mfp123
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the claim to territory goes back hundred of years, for example, taiwans inhabitants were chinese settlers and 85% of the population today is han chinese. does taiwan have a claim to be independant? of course they do, but at the same time from chinas view they consider it part of their country so from their viewpoint no they dont.

tibet is a province of china. china is no more a "single" country than the united states is. or italy.

it is made up of seperate provinces, of which tibet is considered one of them. they may have been conquered in the past. but the fact that it was conquered and done several hundred years ago, means that china will obviously consider it as part of their "country".

Mongolia once conquered China. Does that make China a part of Mongolia? Tibet has slipped in and out of Chinese control, depending on the power of the dynasty in question. Your assertion was that China has never stepped out of its borders. I am simply pointing out that that assertion is highly debatable at best if not entirely false.

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the claim to territory goes back hundred of years, for example, taiwans inhabitants were chinese settlers and 85% of the population today is han chinese. does taiwan have a claim to be independant? of course they do, but at the same time from chinas view they consider it part of their country so from their viewpoint no they dont.

tibet is a province of china. china is no more a "single" country than the united states is. they speak 300 different languages, spread over 1.5 billion people.

it is made up of seperate provinces, of which tibet is considered one of them. they may have been conquered in the past. but the fact that it was conquered and done several hundred years ago, means that china will obviously consider it as part of their "country".

USA was once Brittish does that make it a Brittish colony :lol: same goes for my home country of Ireland

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USA was once Brittish does that make it a Brittish colony :lol: same goes for my home country of Ireland

I'm mustering an army of Viking landsmen, to retake the province of Northumberland on behalf of my Scandinavian ancestors. I also hear rebellion is afoot in the kingdom of Mercia.

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USA was once Brittish does that make it a Brittish colony :lol: same goes for my home country of Ireland

no the point is, it is the reason they lay claim to it.

it is better to understand china if you realise it is not really a single country but more like a united states of china, made up of provinces. there are 50 ethnic groups speaking 300 different languages.

most of the fighting happens internally because they are all very different. they have enough problems trying to keep their own house in order.

Edited by mfp123
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no the point is, it is the reason they lay claim to it.

it is better to understand china if you realise it is not really a single country but more like a united states of china, made up of provinces.

most of the fighting happens internally because they are all very different. they have enough problems trying to keep their own house in order.

I agree there are strong regional differences which can cause friction, but that doesn't mean they haven't been happy to bash the foreigners on occasion throughout their history. The long running saga with Vietnam springs to mind.

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