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Phase Shift: The Next Leg Down In House Prices

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The US may yet become competitive again.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/phase-shift-housing3-11.html

bubble-decline2.gif

Phase Shift: The Next Leg Down in House Prices (March 24, 2011)

Housing has supposedly "hit bottom." Perhaps it will drop abruptly in a phase shift to much lower valuations.

Way back in August 2006, near the top of the housing bubble, I suggested a two-part scenario for the housing bust: it would take eight more years to play out, and the declines would occur in sharp downlegs following a phase-shift model.

Phase Transitions, Symmetry and Post-Bubble Declines (August 2, 2006)

Here is the chart I presented at that time as a possible time model:

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Interesting that we've had a similar symetry - price rises reversed 2 years before the peak, likewise with the falls 2 years after. If the pattern holds we could be in for one hell of a period of falls.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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