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Time to raise the rents.

How's The Chance Of Ir Cuts Going?

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With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

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Guest pioneer31
With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

ah well I predict a mass surge in prices then as people realise they have an extra £12 a month

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With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

I think IRs might well fall. But I wouldn't take any comfort from this if I were a bull; if they need to reduce IRs in the face of inflationary pressures it would mean the economy is about to tank seriously. In that scenario, nothing would stop price falls. Stagflation, they call it. Lose-lose situation.

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With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

Hard to shoot you down on this. Interst rates will be coming down again (IMO), I reckon around the New Year - I can't decide Dec or Jan. Could give you economic reasons but that would be pointless because it has become political.

I also reckon that property may be "fair" value again in the next 18 months. Things could change of course but I'm presonally saving as much money as possible in preparation to jump on.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

I must admit, it's looking like there may be another cut in rates,

but definitely not this side of Christmas so my £100 is still safe,

They'll probably be on the way back up come the Spring. :D

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Guest consa
With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

This will depend on how inflation is looking after the recent oil spike, I would say no movement till after christmas either way.

On a lighter note, IR's will have no more effect on house prices for the forseeable either way.

If they go down: people will not be richer and the debt will not go away

If they go up: whats an extra £15/month, Council tax has gone up more + Fuel + Gas + Oil + +++

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Ever hear of cost-push inflation, TTRTR?

If not, you will

Inflation Theories - Cost-Push Inflation - What pushes inflation up?

Cost-push inflation happens when firms' costs go up. To maintain their profit margins, firms then need to put their prices up. In other words cost increases have pushed inflation up. Cost-push inflation may arise from various sources:

Wage increases - wages are a major proportion of costs for many firms and so if wages are increasing, this may well cause cost-push inflation.

Government - if the government changes taxes, this may push up firms' costs. This is particularly true with excise duties on fuel and oil. Changes in interest rates can also affect firms costs if they have borrowed significant amounts.

Abroad - exchange rate changes can affect firms' costs, particularly if they import many of their raw materials. An exchange rate depreciation will increase import prices and may therefore increase firms costs.

The effect of cost increases is to shift the aggregate supply to the left.

Reminds me of the 70s Dr Bubb.

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I don't think they are going to go down.

It didn't benefit anybody the last time. In fact the odd result was that it seemed to have the opposite effect. High street sales didn't rise, housing market wasn't re-inflated. The only thing that seemed to happen was that it confirmed peoples opinion that we were in a bit of trouble and they batterned down the hatches a bit quicker than they possibly would have done without it.

The BOE seem to regret doing it and to do it again would only slap a bit more egg on their faces if they had to revert.

Maybe at some point in the equation sentiment outweighs economics? Like it was in Japan. They kept on bailing but everybody knew the boat was sinking so it made no difference.

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Ever hear of cost-push inflation, TTRTR?

If not, you will

You must be joking!!!!!!!!

That is the basis of my arrival at this forum, cost-push inflation being a major reason for rents to rise.

:angry:

I must admit, it's looking like there may be another cut in rates,

but definitely not this side of Christmas so my £100 is still safe,

They'll probably be on the way back up come the Spring. :D

Good, you're starting to turn, it's not such a leap to reach the next stage, accepting that recent rate directions have resulted in similar decisions every three months.....Nov.

:D

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
You must be joking!!!!!!!!

That is the basis of my arrival at this forum, cost-push inflation being a major reason for rents to rise.

What with house prices falling and the amateur BTLs in a state of panic. Lets hope you are right.

Can`t pay what they have not got, its that very nasty debt thingy you see. <_<

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If IR are reduced in the present economic cycle it will be to stimulate a faltering economy which appears to be the new reality as admitted by Mr. Brown recently. Much will depend on the Fed and Big Al has already made it clear that fiscal neutrality is the target for US rates: 4.5% or thereabouts (US is at 3.75% now). If the UK rates are not in line with US rates the fragile value of the pound will be undermined causing a massive correction in currency values reminiscent of October 1991. It has been pointed out by the IMF and others that the high value of the pound rests on the inflating housing bubble which, in common with the US market, has been fueled by short term (short sighted?) fiscal stimulus.

Mr. Brown has no way out other than to allow market forces to correct the froth in the housing bubble by allowing interest rates to remain "neutral" or in line with the Fed. He has no choice as a plummeting pound will do more harm than allowing the housing market to correct to a more sustainable level. As market forces bring about fiscal alignment in the various sectors of the economy the sectors most out of alignment will see the sharpest correction. Its more likely to be the "value" of homes than sterling IMHO (it may be both in which case it would be a good investment to sell sterling and buy US dollars--the pound dropped 3 cents against the dollar late last week which may be an indication of the correction already underway). Big Al has already said that he is willing to see the bubble deflate in the US as not all areas of the US have seen irrational exhuberance in home prices. The problem we face here is that house prices are unrealistic (in relation to earnings) everywhere in the UK. Thus, the collapse in home values on the East and West Coasts of the US will be mirrored by a correction in the UK that will affect the entire nation.

"House prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real"Mervyn King, BoE

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Interest rates coming down?!?!!?

Have you noticed that the price of oil has doubled lately? Oh, and the BoEs upper inflation target looks like being breached fairly soon, so IRs are going to go up.

Following a discussion I had with TTRTR on another thread he seems to think that the economy is going to grow by the same amount each year from here to eternity. It won't. I'm only 29 but I've been around long enough to know that the economy doesn't stay this good for this long without the sh t hitting the fan at the end of it. That's why no one takes you seriously on here TTRTR.

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With all these stories of GB finally admitting his optimistic outlook needs to be changed, I feel the cards are starting to stck up in favour of another cut in IR's.

Oct is probably too soon. But Nov has been predicted in the past, but not a dead cert. I think the tide is shifting though.

Now's your chance to shoot me down.......

If you keep your fingers crossed you may end up with permanantly disfigured hands. Although the economy is very weak, inflation is rising. For Gordon Brown to change the BOE objectives would risk him losing his last vestige of credibility.

I suspect that many home owners are secretly praying for inflation. The problem is that we may see inflation in goods and services but not wages. In a global economy wage inflation results in rapid loss of jobs. The best that home owners can hope for is moderately high interest rates and low inflation. That at least means they could have a job to go to.

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Hard to shoot you down on this. Interst rates will be coming down again (IMO), I reckon around the New Year - I can't decide Dec or Jan. Could give you economic reasons but that would be pointless because it has become political.

I also reckon that property may be "fair" value again in the next 18 months. Things could change of course but I'm presonally saving as much money as possible in preparation to jump on.

Exactly now political. Typical UK, end up with a Independant Central Bank that is ignoring the good of the economy i.e. increasing IR and acting politically by reducing IR. Yet again the long term future of the country sacrificed for careers of politicians.

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I think one of the key things coming up for the economy is the developed world is increasing inflation. IMO too much is already "in the pipeline" for this to be avoided.

How IR's go will tell us a lot about what comes next. Do we get a lot of inflation or even more inflation? With money supply increases in many countries running at around 10% per annum there's a lot of potential for inflation to spread throughout the economy. The question is how quickly will the central banks react?

The longer they take to react, the higher rates are likely to go at the peak. And I don't see them being in too much of a hurry... So at some point we end up with high inflation and high rates.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates
Good, you're starting to turn, it's not such a leap to reach the next stage, accepting that recent rate directions have resulted in similar decisions every three months.....Nov.

Rents, to be honest just trying to keep your spirits up. :D

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"reminds me of the 70s"

Charlie, maybe you and I are the only ones here old enough to remember them..

You can add me to the list of those old enough.

The 1970s were a dreadful time. The only benficiaries were those with big loans who saw the the value of their debts eroded to a fraction of their original worth. The huge losers were those (like my Grandparents) living on fixed incomes who saw the value of their life savings remorselessly stripped away.

Edited by Red Baron

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"reminds me of the 70s"

Charlie, maybe you and I are the only ones here old enough to remember them..

But this factor is at work in Oz too:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=16077

I remember the 70's too. A return to that is not going to be pretty.

I know an awful lot of people who have never experienced anything like that. When I try to explain it to them their eyes glaze over . :blink:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I remember the 70's too. A return to that is not going to be pretty.

I know an awful lot of people who have never experienced anything like that. When I try to explain it to them their eyes glaze over . :blink:

A common sight was seeing masses of people trawling through the throw aways by the stall holders in the local markets. Spitafields wholesale market in London was a magnet for people from the East End. Trouble was it was also picked up by the better off. I saw a guy sorting through it one day and loading his van, it turned out he was from a local charity.

Most of the produce dumped still had three days freshness left but not enough for the retailers to buy.

It was during this period that I realised prudence was the way to a happier and secure life.

Will we see in the future people trawling through the supermarket skips grabbing the sell by date stuff, I cannot believe what my local supermarkets throw out.

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Modern Day Slavery = Debt

In reality, everyone buying a house with a mortgage is actually gambling than IR's don't raise higher than their ability to keep up payments. The ownership (deeds) to the house do not pass to the mortgage owner until all payments have been made.

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"reminds me of the 70s"

Charlie, maybe you and I are the only ones here old enough to remember them..

I was just a kid in the 70s.

All I remember was that everyone wore daft clothes and the 'disco' music was awful.

The telly programmes in the late 70s were brilliant though... maybe that's what pulled us through it all.

It was during this period that I realised prudence was the way to a happier and secure life.

My parents taught me this from an early age and I have lived by it and found it to be true so far.

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You must be joking!!!!!!!!

That is the basis of my arrival at this forum, cost-push inflation being a major reason for rents to rise.

How interesting.

So, what sort of costs are going to go up for somebody renting out houses in the near future?

And, what evidence is there that "customers" of rented property are going to be able to afford any increase in the current economic environment?

And if people are not getting richer on average, what mechanism will stop rents actually having to fall to match people's means?

And would falling interest rates have much effect on people's ability to pay rent, given that it's not usual

:blink: to borrow money to pay rent? (Hint, your answer can't include reference to cheaper credit for other monthly expenses, unless you can also show that high street spending is acutally rising).

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Will we see in the future people trawling through the supermarket skips grabbing the sell by date stuff, I cannot believe what my local supermarkets throw out.

Charlie the tramp,

I used to work part time at a local supermarket in the fresh stock control department whilst studying.

I was appalled on the amount of food which was thrown away at the end of the day. As soon as the store was shut, that was it we were not allowed to sell it on to staff or take home for our own consumption, it had to be destroyed. I was in charge of putting the “waste” food down the compactor, you can believe how unpleasent I found doing this part of the job going against my non wastefull nature.

I made sure 30 minutes before the supermarket shut I put 5p stickers on all of this produce and placed it right by the entrance. The management could not complain as I pointed out to them they might as well get a few extra pence then none.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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