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London Bounces Back From Recession

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Londonarticle

Talk to Nick Candy, property development manager for One Hyde Park, and you get a sense of how off-beam these predictions were. The credit crunch did initially deter buyers he says, but now ultra-low interest rates and the devalued pound (which makes British goods up to 25% cheaper to foreigners) are luring in customers. Forty of the block's 86 flats have already sold, for a total of £900m.

He is part of a wider story of how London is bouncing back from the banking crisis far more sharply than almost everyone predicted – while much of the rest of the country remains in the doldrums. For more evidence, look at last week's announcement from posh estate agent Savills of an 88% jump in underlying profits – thanks in large part to sales in London. Then there's the capital's jobs market, which is stronger than many other regions. Even attendance at Premiership football matches has never been healthier; between 2007 and 2010, crowds at games in the north slid 5%, while in the Midlands they fell 6%. In London there was no drop at all.

"Go to the restaurants, they're busy," says Candy. "If you'd last visited London in 2006, you'd see barely any difference now. We're almost back to where we were in the boom."

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So they have sold less than half of the flats and that is a success? Talk about premature bullsh1t PR. Come back and write the same story when they have sold 95% of the stock and I might agree.

Well you're shooting the messenger here, but the article does state that shops, restaurants are busy again in central London. I must admit I'm surprised at how many people are still to be seen paying London prices for meals etc., but yes I'd agree that most of them are tourists.

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London is an international city, and the cheaper pound will almost certainly have had an impact... the trouble is, if the scenario is one of rich visitors and impoverished natives, it's hard to see how it's sustainable. A few locals will be doing well - those first in line for the visitors' money - but it ain't going to spread very far. It doesn't matter if you own or rent - the rest of us are struggling.

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I'd be interested in seeing how the busyness of restaurants etc.. translates into profits for the companies.

Since the start of the 'credit crunch' I've found myself eating out in London a lot more, nowhere fancy, just the Pizza Express/Zizzis of the world, but I don't spend anymore than I used to. I still have the same budget as before for eating out it's just that since the start of the CC it seems there's a new voucher every week for BOGOF or eat out for a tenner, or free bottle of wine etc.. etc...

I give them the same money as before and they're currently feeding me double!

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I'd be interested in seeing how the busyness of restaurants etc.. translates into profits for the companies.

Since the start of the 'credit crunch' I've found myself eating out in London a lot more, nowhere fancy, just the Pizza Express/Zizzis of the world, but I don't spend anymore than I used to. I still have the same budget as before for eating out it's just that since the start of the CC it seems there's a new voucher every week for BOGOF or eat out for a tenner, or free bottle of wine etc.. etc...

I give them the same money as before and they're currently feeding me double!

That's a very interesting point. I suspect the companies are fine to see you taking advantage of these deals, as it avoids any chance of an empty restaurant. Most tourists (who pay the full price) will shun an empty restaurant as they assume it's not much cop. They see some locals in a place and decide to eat there. A marketing device.

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I help process accounts of certain restaurants (chains) which I won't name and at the moment they seem to be down a little over 10% on this time last year and that's including them sucking up a lot of the increased costs.

From what I hear the sector as a whole is struggling. I could name specific ones right now which are having cash flow problems.

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Restaurants are doing more deals to keep bums on seats. Our local chinese has started offering all you can eat buffets for £6.99 per head throughout most of the day.

Edited by Money Spinner

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For everyone who gets priced out of the bottom of the property ladder, there's a rich investor who finds they can add an extra property to their portfolio. That's why property prices won't crash in London or anywhere else in UK. Let's face it, after all the world economy's been through in the last 3 years, if property prices haven't crashed yet, they ain't going to.

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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What'sdifficult to see about taxpayer backstops both directly and indirectly? Rather than seeing a recovery what we are really seeing is a massive transference of wealth. Theft by an other term.

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What'sdifficult to see about taxpayer backstops both directly and indirectly? Rather than seeing a recovery what we are really seeing is a massive transference of wealth. Theft by an other term.

I agree. When there was a boom, the total value of everything was going up and so everyone who owned property or shares was tending to become better off. But now, the total value of everything is stagnant. If there's a limited amount of total value around, if the rich are getting richer that means everyone else must be getting poorer. The multi-£billion profits of the big banks over the last year have made everyone else (on average) several hundred pounds poorer, I reckon. Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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Also our local pub has reduced the price of the carvey to £5 from £8 on Monday nights (Packed out), pick your own and as much veg/roast potatoes/etc. Also they have introduced all you can eat Thai, Greek, Mexican nights.

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[...Even attendance at Premiership football matches has never been healthier; between 2007 and 2010, crowds at games in the north slid 5%, while in the Midlands they fell 6%. In London there was no drop at all...

This looks like a spurious point to me.

The trends they describe are at least partly due to changes in club mix – the ‘North’ in 2010 was diluted by the addition of Blackpool [stadium capacity c. 15k] as opposed to, say, Middlesboro [capacity 35k] in 2007.

Whereas London has kept the same 5 clubs for the best part of a decade.

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That's a very interesting point. I suspect the companies are fine to see you taking advantage of these deals, as it avoids any chance of an empty restaurant. Most tourists (who pay the full price) will shun an empty restaurant as they assume it's not much cop. They see some locals in a place and decide to eat there. A marketing device.

...rent a customer...would not be the first, but it works. ;)

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Also our local pub has reduced the price of the carvey to £5 from £8 on Monday nights (Packed out), pick your own and as much veg/roast potatoes/etc. Also they have introduced all you can eat Thai, Greek, Mexican nights.

...do they do doggy bags? ;)

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For everyone who gets priced out of the bottom of the property ladder, there's a rich investor who finds they can add an extra property to their portfolio. That's why property prices won't crash in London or anywhere else in UK. Let's face it, after all the world economy's been through in the last 3 years, if property prices haven't crashed yet, they ain't going to.

TPTB have done everything they can to protect asset prices.

There isn't an unlimited supply of foreign investors, and with a relatively impoverished local population, what yield will they be getting for these "investments" in future?

Typical property yields in London are less than 4%. Inflation is a 4.4%. It doesn't make any sense except than London property is viewed as a safe haven by the rich.

The day of reckoning has just been delayed. The financial crisis is not over.

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Loads of new flats still going up near me.

I struggle to see who will be able to afford to buy/rent them.

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The two acre site has detailed planning consent for 274 homes, 170 of which will be for private sale. There will be a mix of 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments, in seven blocks ranging from 5 - 10 storeys, with the views from the upper floors expected to be outstanding. It also includes 4,500 sq metres of commercial space and a basement car park for 58 vehicles. Located equidistant between Old Street and Barbican tube stations, the site offers excellent transport links and is close to both the City and Clerkenwell.

In what is certainly one of the largest land deals in Central London at the moment, Mount Anvil and its joint venture partner, One Housing Group, together with their funders, Allied Irish Bank and Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets, are displaying their confidence in the project and in the residential market as a whole.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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