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Some Graphs For Your Comments & Criticism

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Hopefully these might be of some interest, but any criticisms would be very welcome, as would comments. I wanted to look at the actual value of mortgage approvals rather than the number, to see if it showed anything interesting.

Graph 1 - Approvals by purpose since 2000 (£ millions):

Approvals Since 2000.JPG

Graph 2 - To put the recent lows into some context, back to 1997:

Approvals Since 1997.JPG

This got me wondering what sort of uptake there was on the approvals, so I found the LPMVTUZ data series on the BoE site - this may not be correct, so please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to correlate quite nicely.

Graph 3 - Overlay of Pursuals since 2000:

Overlay Since 2000.JPG

Graph 4 - And to put that in some context, back to 1997 again:

Overlay Since 1997.JPG

I've got a few observations from these graphs, but I'd be very interested to hear what other people think.

Sincere thanks to FreeTrader for pointing me in the direction of the Approvals data series.

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post-7727-0-19613800-1300648119_thumb.jpg

post-7727-0-92330200-1300648248_thumb.jpg

post-7727-0-61552800-1300648289_thumb.jpg

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We are cooking on gas:

:)

Trust me Durch, the first colour scheme was ten times worse :P

I'm not particularly artistically inclined, so if anyone has any suggestions for something that is easier on the eye, I'm all ears. That said, now it's been pointed out, I rather like the flame look ;)

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very interesting graphs - thanks - it's good to see the excesses of the market seem to be cooling down.

Yes some interesting graphs there, thanks. I've forwarded them to a few folks in my e-circle who reckon things will bounce back.

This is all looking like credit contraction (because the banks are bust) leading to a prolonged period of deflation, despite how many rounds of QE are initiated. Also it supports my contention that the crash is only good for cash buyers - the banks ain't lending simples. A real let down for all those HPC hypocrites who've been praying for a crash, got it but won't be able to take advantage like the mid 90s crowd. Still these people got their wish by supporting the bail outs so they thought they could borrow round about now - useful idiots. The banks should been allowed to fail end of.

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Actually, I'm really impressed by anyone really willing to analyse numbers. I've learned that just like there is no such thing as bad publicity, there is no such thing as a bad *bump* until someone with serious intent posts.

Cheers Durch - ever the gent, sir :)

Yes some interesting graphs there, thanks. I've forwarded them to a few folks in my e-circle who reckon things will bounce back.

This is all looking like credit contraction (because the banks are bust) leading to a prolonged period of deflation, despite how many rounds of QE are initiated. Also it supports my contention that the crash is only good for cash buyers - the banks ain't lending simples. A real let down for all those HPC hypocrites who've been praying for a crash, got it but won't be able to take advantage like the mid 90s crowd. Still these people got their wish by supporting the bail outs so they thought they could borrow round about now - useful idiots. The banks should been allowed to fail end of.

Yep, one thing that jumps out at me is that at practically every point in that time series, the uptake on the approvals is near maximum. I'll be honest, I was expecting to see lower take up during the free lending years, on the basis that there was no urgency to take what was offered. Then again, I guess I underestimated how strong the "missed the boat" movement was.

Interesting to me to see that both in the late 90's and now, the "pursual" figure is well above the approvals - which either means I've got the data wrong, or that people are using every bit of credit they've been offered in prior months. If it's the latter, then surely we'll see a drop off in a few months time?

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The amount lent out is right about where it should be, ie 2000/2001 levels. Trouble is, its only lent on about half the number of homes it should be, hence house prices are still about 50% overvalued, and not at 2000/2001 levels.

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Cheers Durch - ever the gent, sir :)

Yep, one thing that jumps out at me is that at practically every point in that time series, the uptake on the approvals is near maximum. I'll be honest, I was expecting to see lower take up during the free lending years, on the basis that there was no urgency to take what was offered. Then again, I guess I underestimated how strong the "missed the boat" movement was.

Interesting to me to see that both in the late 90's and now, the "pursual" figure is well above the approvals - which either means I've got the data wrong, or that people are using every bit of credit they've been offered in prior months. If it's the latter, then surely we'll see a drop off in a few months time?

Look, the great elephant in the room that no one, from the elite to HPC greed merchants, wishes to recognise is that unlike in the early 90s the banks are straight bust. The government have set the UK on a path of zombie banks, which was supported by the majority of folks on this forum. Fair enough, they got their wish but don't go hurrumphing that the banks ain't lending even with your perfect credit record. The worse the better I say.

Your graphs merely illustrate the new normal; depressed prices, depressed approvals running at less than half pre-peak. I'm lovin' deflation....if only because the elite/banksters crave inflation.

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Look, the great elephant in the room that no one, from the elite to HPC greed merchants, wishes to recognise is that unlike in the early 90s the banks are straight bust. The government have set the UK on a path of zombie banks, which was supported by the majority of folks on this forum. Fair enough, they got their wish but don't go hurrumphing that the banks ain't lending even with your perfect credit record. The worse the better I say.

Your graphs merely illustrate the new normal; depressed prices, depressed approvals running at less than half pre-peak. I'm lovin' deflation....if only because the elite/banksters crave inflation.

I think you've misunderstood my comment there; I'm struggling to see where you get the idea that I'm complaining that the banks aren't lending?

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The amount lent out is right about where it should be, ie 2000/2001 levels. Trouble is, its only lent on about half the number of homes it should be, hence house prices are still about 50% overvalued, and not at 2000/2001 levels.

+1

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The amount lent out is right about where it should be, ie 2000/2001 levels. Trouble is, its only lent on about half the number of homes it should be, hence house prices are still about 50% overvalued, and not at 2000/2001 levels.

and also, I guess the numbers are not inflation-adjusted, so the real amount forwarded will be something of the order of two-thirds of 2000/01 levels, and into homes costing twice as much, so it's more like 3:1 in terms of houses/£

One of the most interesting features is the remortgaging numbers, which must lag the blue approvals (obviously). It seems like most remortgaging activity gets flushed through after a couple of years, as most folk do not fix for longer than that. Seems to me as though remortgaging will remain low and possibly go lower still as LTV excludes many from a better deal. Approvals seem destined to remain low for the forseeable future.

The rise and fall of MEW is neatly illustrated. Seems odd that all those flash cars, holidays etc are represented by that small yellow bit. A very visible part of HPI.

Many thanks for producing and posting the graphs, they really do show the state of the market laid bare. It cannot go on like this..

Edited by cheeznbreed

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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