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House Price Data - Prices And Volumes

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Hi All,

I am a regular reader and very occasional poster to HPC. This is the first thread I have started, I think.

I thought it might be fun to aggregate house price data -- some of you might have seen during election time various attempts to forecast the election outcome by aggregating all the individual polls. It would be cool I think to do this with all the relevant indexes of house prices--hailwide, land reg, rightmove etc. etc. To do this is somewhat beyond my current level of technical competence, but in a way that is the whole point of doing it. I'll certainly post on the forum if I get anywhere with it.

Anyway, I have a few queries about the various indices out there. Ideally, I'd like to weight each index by transaction number--by analogy to weighting by sample size in opinion poll data. As far as I can make out, volume information is not generally available, or is available only long after the price data is available. For example the latest Land Registry statistical release has price data for January but volume data only for November. Halifax and Nationwide has only price data and no data on the number of approvals this is based upon.

Finally, if this information has previously been collated into some handy format, I'd be grateful if anyone would point out the source to me.

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Couldn't you weight them according to market share? That info should be available and would have thought would be fairly consistent so not so much of a problem if lagging a bit.

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Thanks folks. It is good to see the competition (and pleasing to know that it is perhaps not up to date). What I actually hoped to get out of it is a measure of statistical error, for which the number of completions (or mortgages offered, or houses new to market) is really ideal. This incidentally is something that http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ does not give. NEO72's suggestion is perhaps not a bad `second-best'. We know the Land Registry's volumes, so perhaps we could say the number of mortgages offered by, say, Nationwide, is their market share * Land registry volume lagged by three months. Market share would of course have to include cash purchases for that to work. I'll have a poke around and keep the board updated. Perhaps no time soon, though.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%

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