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Liquid Goldfish

Bombing Gaddafi, Oil Price, Bahrain Etc

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On C4 News they were suggesting that US has done a deal with the Gulf States whereby the Gulf States will be given carte blanche to put down any popular uprisings in return for supporting tonight's UN resolution to bomb Gaddafi and indeed commit to taking part in the bombing.

Apart from the open and appalling hypocrisy, does this mean the oil price spike is going to come to an abrupt end?

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Apart from the open and appalling hypocrisy, does this mean the oil price spike is going to come to an abrupt end?

To an end?? Is that before or after Gaddafi sets fire to the Libyan oil wells?

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Gaddafi bombing his oil refineries is as likely as the bogeyman coming in your window and stealing your 1st born child.

Or perhaps he really is a lunatic bent on destroying everything if you subscribe to such ridiculous rhetoric.

Don't believe anything you read about Libya as it's very heavily censured and full of misinformation.

Libya (est. 1933), a country that doesn't really exist except as a 'nation' with arbitrary borders on your western maps, just so happens to have easy to get at oil. Sound familiar?

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Bl**dy heck, just when things seem to be looking brighter in Japan the West starts to stir it up further in ME.

Here's a really good piece that explains well why Western countries are behaving the way they are. Q: Wonder why France is so anti Gaddafi? A: Look where Total's exploration and production licences are located...

http://golemxiv-cred...or-algeria.html

Pity poor Libya

from Golem XIV - Thoughts by golemxivg@googlemail.com (Golem XIV - Thoughts)

Everybody wants to know what is going to happen in Libya. And worse, for the Libyans, everyone wants to have a hand in deciding what does happen.

Saudi is interested because with the drop in oil output and the price heading above $100 a barrel Saudi is feeling the pressure to raise its output to compensate. It has said it would, but now people are openly wondering if Saudi can make good on its promise and if they really have the reserves they say they have. Doubt at every turn.

Nations with a direct 'national interest' from oil and gas investment include America, GB, France, Italy Spain, Holland and Canada. While Russia is interested because with Libya in limbo its position as gas supplier to Europe gets closer to an effective monopoly, while China is interested to push in to what had been previously sewn up.

In all these countries the power and money of the major Oil companies is being deployed to pressure their governments. Billions have been spent already in 'bribes' and investment, and hundreds of billions in future revenue are at stake.

In countries without a direct interest are still closely focused because if Oil climbs above $100 a barrel and stays there then the already dimming prospects for global growth to pull us out of our nation-killer debts recedes further still. Think of Spain - high oil and gas will kill any feeble prospects they had for growth. What does and does not happen in Libya threatens our financial and political elite.

Italy, for example, is tied to Libya not only by oil and gas but by banking. Libya owns 7.5% of UniCredit. Having assets, if not actually frozen, then in political limbo does nothing for a bank's credit rating outlook.

Let's look at the tangle of conflicting agenda's and foreign policies which have knotted themselves across each other in Libya. A knot which has begun to unravel as Gaddafi's loses his grip and that most uncertain of political forces shows tentative signs of emerging - democratic self determination - or at least the hope for it.

Some nations would like things in Libya to resolve quickly so as to get the oil and gas back at full flow. Spain and Italy head this group. Others, like France, GB, Holland and the US would like things to flow again but are more concerned that when they do, their companies are still the ones making the profits and running the wells.

American oil companies, before Gaddafi, used to rule in Libya. They got thrown out and their assets were nationalized. After that the Europeans moved in and consolidated. Led by Italy, then France and latterly, thanks to Tony 'how may I slime and fawn upon you' Blair who made more trips to see Gaddafi and had more pictures taken embracing him than any other leader, Britain. Britain has been tireless in its pursuit of Libyan oil and is still at it.

Pg-04-Gaddafi-getty_562627s.jpgAnd as if by magic BP and Shell signed HUGE oil and gas deals. Exxon and Occidental got in there as well but given Tony's 'special' friends you'd expect that too.

It isn't that Libya has massive reserves, it's that it has lots of unexplored areas that the oil companies are dying to get the rights to, and the oil is Sweet light, low sulfur crude which makes it very sought after. (Go to this google page and click on the FT article "Hunt for top grade crude) Sweet crude is what West Texas crude is and what America finds easy to refine and burn. It is also what North Sea oil is. Sweet, low sulfur is both 'cleaner' than high sulfur heavier oils and also produces more diesel than the heavy black crudes that Saudi has.

All of which means Libya's oil is much easier and cheaper to refine, cleaner to burn, and the country also has lots of gas which Spain in particular is looking for.

Having sweet, light, crude not only makes it attractive, it also makes it the same as the bench mark, West Texas and Brent Crudes whose price sets the bench mark. Fluctuations in these kinds of oil effect the markets. Hence it is no surprise that once things started to kick off in Libya crude bench mark prices started to shoot up. And as they go up lots of other things go down. Growth estimates being the most central.

Growth estimates have spent the year being revised down particularly in Europe. Today the airline sector has revised its growth estimates down. Oil is a major input/cost in almost very thing, including the cost of foods. So as oil goes up the cost of making everything goes up with it. Those increases either have to be passed on to the consumer or cut from the profit margins of the sellers/producer. In our present jobless recession/recovery consumers will just buy less if the prices goes up. So what we are left with is what we are seeing, a margin squeeze. Where unit sales stay up but even as the sales numbers are trumpeted the companies are going under.

That's if unrest continues and oil prices are kept high. So you might imagine that everyone would be united in wanting a swift resolution. But it's never that simple. A swift resolution is fine but resolved with who as the winner is what matters.

Spain and Italy have been very quiet about Gaddafi, have you noticed? The fields they own/run and from which they get their oil and especially their gas, are in the west of the country; The part still not in rebel hands and closet to Gaddafi. Both Spain and Italy are heavily involved in both Oil and Gas in Algeria.

122752_09a2cc351dab4649866f.jpgThe BP, Shell, Exxon and Occidental holdings are in the East in the vast offshore 'Sirt block', in rebel territory.And the investment in these fields is huge. The Sirt basin is larger than Belgium. BP alone was awarded an area 54,000 km square. BP plans to spend more than $20 billion there.

So does that mean BP, Shell, Exxon and Occidental are all for the rebels? Well actually maybe not. Their deals all signed at enormous cost. BP, for example had to pay $350 million for what is called signature bonus. Those deals were with the Gaddafi regime. And what have those pesky, self determining democratic rebels said?

"This area is controlled by the people," said Mabrook Maghraby, a lawyer from Benghazi who is now involved with the local committees defending Brega." (Which Gaddafi forces have reportedly now
)
"If oil contracts were unfair or based on corruption, however, the interim leadership of Libya's second city Benghazi said they reserved the right to renegotiate them."

And even more ominously worrying for the oil companies who paid millions to seal the deals, the same article continues,

"Jammal bin Nour, a judge and member of the Feb. 17 coalition, told Reuters oil contracts signed by Gaddafi's government would be respected as long as they were fair, good for Libyans, and not based on corruption."

Ooops!

Now companies and countries who landed the best deals (BP and Shell) won't want any re-negotiation. While countries who were not around when those deals were struck but are now very much around (Hello China) will be doing everything they can to ensure they are not just re-negotiated but perhaps put back out to open tender.

The US might be somewhere in the middle - got a deal but maybe thinking a better deal could be struck.

GB seems to have sided with the rebels perhaps on the grounds that all 'our' interests are controlled by them. Spain is quiet as a mouse as its 'assets' are still under Gaddafi control. The US is "Wary of arming the Opposition" and is moving the Marine corps into position perhaps with a view to 're-negotiating better terms' while France and Russia are saying no military intervention without a UN mandate which they can both veto. France doesn't want the US muscling in, nor the Brits consolidating their recent gains and is keen to be seen to be a friend of the liberated people. And Russia? Well Russia would be best served by Libyan gas being off-line for as long as possible giving them more monopoly power over Europe's gas supply.

All in all Pity poor Libya. The debtor nations are desperate for growth and will now fight among themselves in order to get the magic ingredient.

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I suspect there will be nothing that needs to be done as Gaddafi will have defeated the rebels in the next couple of days. What will the UN etc do then ... nothing as they have done nothing to date. At least the oil will be flowing again ... pity it took so long to decide whether or not to support the rebels but hey hoo the oil fields are safe.

That does seem like the story so far. Sadly.

I don't think the various powers want to compromise oil supplies at this time. Especially with the rising nuclear debate.

Cynical view, perhaps. But it's clear that despots . . . Gaddafi, nasty sheikhs and so on . . . were being brought back into the fold. I don't think any moral judgements count for anything these days.

The situation for citizens in Benghazi is truly shocking . . . Gaddafi has promised them, quote, 'no mercy'.

I didn't see any UK politicans speaking out on this . . did you?

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Maybe not. France say they'll start bombing within hours

I've heard the same - here's the draft of the resolution

10:15pm

AFP has released some excerpts from the draft UN resolution. They are reproduced below. The resolution:

Demands the immediate establishment of a ceasefire and a complete end to violence and all attacks against, and abuses of, civilians;

"Stresses the need to intensify efforts to find a solution to the crisis which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people and notes the decisions of the Secretary-General to send his Special Envoy to Libya and of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to send its ad hoc High Level Committee to Libya with the aim of facilitating dialogue to lead to the political reforms necessary to find a peaceful and sustainable solution;

"Demands that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance;

"Authorises member states ... to take all necessary measures ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign

occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory...;

"Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;

"Calls upon all member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing" the no-fly zone.

"Calls upon all member states, in particular states of the region, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo established (by Resolution 1970) to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya...

"Deplores the continuing flows of mercenaries into the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and calls upon all member states to comply strictly with their obligations under (Resolution 1970) to prevent the supply of armed mercenary personnel to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;

"Decides that all states shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory

unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing;

"Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items the

supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited ... including the provision of armed mercenary personnel, except in the case of an emergency landing;

"Decides that the asset freeze imposed by (Resolution 1970) shall apply to all funds, other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories, which are owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the Libyan authorities ... or by individuals or entities acting on their behalf or at their direction...

"Affirms its determination to ensure that assets frozen pursuant to (Resolution 1970) shall, at a later stage, as soon as possible be made available to and for the benefit of the people of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya."

So no fly zone, air and missile attacks on ground targets and a blockade - W's great link provides some context and shows why such an imminent attack seems plausible.

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Bl**dy heck, just when things seem to be looking brighter in Japan the West starts to stir it up further in ME.

Here's a really good piece that explains well why Western countries are behaving the way they are. Q: Wonder why France is so anti Gaddafi? A: Look where Total's exploration and production licences are located...

http://golemxiv-cred...or-algeria.html

That's a fascinating piece, _w_

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Maybe not. France say they'll start bombing within hours

You can't win a war from the air.

See: Iraq / Afghanistan

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The resolution has just been passed. Chocks away.

Also

"There will be participation by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. That has been confirmed at the Security Council," the diplomat, who asked not to be identified, said just ahead of the council's vote on authorizing force.

So the UAE, whose troops are currently assisting in the violent put down of a peaceful movement in Bahrain will now be taking military action against another country who are fighting against what is after all an armed rebellion

You couldn't make it up.

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Gaddafi bombing his oil refineries is as likely as the bogeyman coming in your window and stealing your 1st born child.

Don't want to worry you, but they've been in the EU since 2007, so not only can they come to your window, but you'll probably be paying for their benefits and their free house while they steal your child.

:(

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UN passes resolution, Russia and China abstained, it's war.

Does that mean I now clean my old faithful .303 Lee Enfied, press my old khaki battle dress, clean my webbing and polish the boots. Right Dave where do I report. :)

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Does that mean I now clean my old faithful .303 Lee Enfied, press my old khaki battle dress, clean my webbing and polish the boots. Right Dave where do I report. :)

Sadly for you the resolution excludes ground troops, can you fly a plane? :D

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That's a fascinating piece, _w_

The blog is worth subscribing to if you use RSS IMO.

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Sadly for you the resolution excludes ground troops, can you fly a plane? :D

I can sail a boat, grab your rifle and lets go :D

This isn't all about oil IMO, for a change. How i laughed when Obama says how they don't want to do it alone considering how misunderstood their friendly gestures in Iraq and Afghanistan have been :unsure: but their position of self styled Global Police (sic) needs to have some actual credible action to it's name and this is the FIRST time they will actually be doing the right thing even if there is still 100% self interest. If they want to do any similar looking actions in the future they had to act on this. It's as big a factor as oil.

It's still going to be very messy of course but less than without it. It could be that the people around him will start to edge away when they realise they're taking on the world not just a bunch of badly armed amateurs. EG his hired Ukrainian pilots are unlikely to want to fly his junkers against the USAF.

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I think those are classed as conflicts not total war situations, sorry to be picky.

Air Superiority is one of the elements which needs to be in place if you are going to have half a chance of winning or defending a position delete as applicable,see WW II.

Still disagree.

Despite all the money and tech thrown at military equipment, the most successful weapons of recent times are the AK 47 and the IED.

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You can't win a war from the air...

That's not what it's about.

It's about allowing the war to be fought on the ground.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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