Will! Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 When push comes to shove, no market can defy the law of supply and demand for long – and that includes housing. So the sharp increase in homes being offered for sale – up 25pc last month, compared to a year ago – should come as no surprise. The main reason that house prices have not fallen further since the credit crisis began nearly three years ago and still look expensive by historic standards is that unemployment and mortgage costs remain low. Most homeowners could afford to sit out the recession of 2008, 2009 and 2010. There was no urgent compulsion to sell at any price, as seen during the housing slump of the early 1990s when mortgage costs and unemployment soared. Now that Government talk about reducing deficits is turning into action to cut the public payroll and Bank of England base rate increases are no longer a questio of ‘if’ but ‘when’ market sentiment is turning, too. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100009823/sharp-increase-in-homes-for-sale-signals-further-house-price-falls/' rel="external nofollow"> Not in London, obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5h_gQ69bjl54DuH5sbFVHIjmgoW8Q?docId=N0033871300276698161A Number of homes for sale up 25%(UKPA) – 20 hours ago The number of properties being put up for sale has soared by 25% year-on-year as sellers become more realistic about how much their homes are worth, research has indicated. The average estate agent branch had 70 properties on its books in February, up from just 56 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). Some bull shit in that (obviously being the NAEA) but you can't hide the fact that it's a huge increase down we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I had a good drive around my local area today and there is a forest of new estate agents' boards about, in some places it is every other house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 ....so are they saying there is more of a supply than a demand (to pay the suppliers price)? What is more interesting to know is why are these people selling their homes, where are they moving to and what are they, if anything buying?....... ...you can always tell when there has been a flood of property put onto the market the property pages in the local is fatter than the paper itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not seeing it in my area. Talked to 3 EAs - same office - today and they are beginning to panic how slow it is. Phone is not ringing. They expected March to be their busiest month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not seeing it in my area. Talked to 3 EAs - same office - today and they are beginning to panic how slow it is. Phone is not ringing. They expected March to be their busiest month. ....it must be seller interest, rather than buyer interest.......it may be more in areas where there is likely to be more 'excess' properties such as low yield BTLs, forced landlords,holiday homes or those with excess space downsizing....hoping they can sell before the next downfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Talked to 3 EAs - same office - today and they are beginning to panic how slow it is. Phone is not ringing. They expected March to be their busiest month. It's all so unexpected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 It's all so unexpected I had to go out for a walk and grab a bar of wholenut. The EA office is next door to Tesco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fadeaway Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 2 of the large estate agents in my city are offering "buyer's incentives" of up to £1000, I've been getting SPAMMED by rightmove advertising newbuilds, and estate agents have been SPAMMING me with "We found this house - you might be interested" emails containing properties at least 50% over my budget and overvalued by just as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 This upturn in supply coincides nicely with the start of some of the government demand props being kicked away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not seeing it in my area. Talked to 3 EAs - same office - today and they are beginning to panic how slow it is. Phone is not ringing. They expected March to be their busiest month. Low transactions, low sales commissions. High prices, less movers (even those with money and the ability to move) due to very high frictional costs. People don;t like waving goodby to thousands/tens of thousands in tax and commissions and not getting much more for their money (the rungs between the ladder are too far apart as well). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrappycocco Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 For someone in it for profit its probably the best time to get shot of a propwerty, job losses and rate rises ahead. I hope it helps people that just require somewhere to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 For what it is worth, my local property rag was just a handful of pages this week. I was told only one small EA chain advertised in it. So we are back down to 2009 level advertising this week, one EA chain allegedly cutting staff to 4 days a week and one chain that had begun opening on Sundays again back in January not opening last Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I had to go out for a walk and grab a bar of wholenut. You are such a bad man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctor Gloom Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Does this mean we will get the same old nonsensical reports that there is a huge housing shortage Pop into your local estate agents and join the vast waiting lists, yeah right, or is it a ploy to allow stuggling housebuilding to build more homes hence selling to 'dream' to niaive young people who will be saddled with a life of debt to live in total crap. Barratts anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caparn Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 This increase in number of homes for sale is probably the biggest indicator we are on the verge of a price decrease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 This increase in number of homes for sale is probably the biggest indicator we are on the verge of a price decrease. At the moment, yes. I'd personally welcome a few IR hikes to speed that along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightsod Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 This increase in number of homes for sale is probably the biggest indicator we are on the verge of a price decrease. When do Rightmove update their stats to include February? For us, Jan showed massive increase(year on year) in unsold stock and a small change up on listings. All good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 When do Rightmove update their stats to include February? For us, Jan showed massive increase(year on year) in unsold stock and a small change up on listings. All good. Should be within a week or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperduck Quack Quack Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I stick with my prediction made at the start of the year. A deterioration in the housing market - e.g. more sellers, less buyers, will only affect prices slightly, a few percent. Prices are likely to remain more or less flat throughout the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I agree. Prices are not going to drop that much. They will remain flat for many years to come. Personally I have bought. Property is about 20% under valued. Will have it all paid off in 3 years and mortgage is cheaper than rent. I think it's the best we're gonna get here in the South East. Don't take this the wrong way but..are you mental? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AskFrank Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Don't take this the wrong way but..are you mental? Tell me why? Do you know something I don't? Probably not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Tell me why? Do you know something I don't? Probably not. I do know that prices were pushed up due to an abundance of cheap and easy credit. I also know that cheap and easy credit is no longer in abundance. So from these two pieces of information I have come to the conclusion that prices will fall. And the evidence for homes being 20% undervalued? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 I can see how a sustained zero interest rate policy could lead to a housing market with nominally flat prices and low volumes with high inflation meaning prices falling significantly in real terms. If your ability to buy will keep pace with inflation then it would make sense to wait. If not then might as well buy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftiebeard Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Along with credit availability - employment security must play a huge influence in future asset prices; and this is what I worry about. Why buy when companies are so focused (still) on managing costs out of the business rather than growing the top line. Maybe not everywhere, but my strong sense is that the hackers are still marauding around the majority of companies. I'm waiting till more blood has been spilled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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