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Japan - The Knock On Effect -merged

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Friend of mine at a Japanese electronics company tells me their 5 production plants in Japan have all been shut down for the forseeable future.

This must be happening all over Japan, including car plants etc.

This wont help keep inflation down !!!

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Yeah I'm in shock. I even have relatives out there. I can't watch the footage without being frozen numb with horror and incomprehension. Insomnia past few nights.

But I don't come on to the HPC forum to talk about that. I can donate money and try my best to comfort my Japanese friends and relatives. I come on here because I want to read informed opinions on how this unbelievable disaster will affect us here in the UK. Clearly the disgusting bankers and power people aren't exactly brimming with emotion and sympathy as they gear up with talk on the news about 'rebuilding' and 'new growth'. The money markets are nervously waiting to see what happens. And Japan is printing billions and billions and billions.

So as concisely as possible, please can people spell out clearly in layman's speak the different ways this may pan out for us in the UK, especially with regard to house prices? Obviously if the world is completely irradiated then no need to worry!

Thanks.

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Friend of mine at a Japanese electronics company tells me their 5 production plants in Japan have all been shut down for the forseeable future.

This must be happening all over Japan, including car plants etc.

This wont help keep inflation down !!!

In this case the Governor will have some credence when he says "unexpected".

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Friend of mine at a Japanese electronics company tells me their 5 production plants in Japan have all been shut down for the forseeable future.

This must be happening all over Japan, including car plants etc.

This wont help keep inflation down !!!

Perversely it may balance out. Those factories will not be consuming resources nor parts, easing price pressures.

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Origami Bank will fold, and Tai Chi bank will have slowly stretch its resources, but remain poised and balanced.

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The real issue is that Japan will shut down its nukes which means that it will have to import oil and gas to make the elecy eventhough it's electricity requirement has diminished, but Merkel this morning has said that she is shutting down all German nukes built before 1980 so they will have to import more oil and gas.

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Whatever way they spin it you can bet your bottom devalued dollar they will use it as a reason to keep rates low.

What a big of luck for the bankers....

The bankers will be the ones to profit from the current crisis. With the Central Banks of the world at the Bankers mercy they'll have plenty of spare money to short the shit out of everything and then drive it all back up again, profiting both ways.

While Japan is struggling along the rebuild path the bankers will be there every step of the way rubbing their greedy little hands together seeing what they can profit from.

Sick fooking world we live in.

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Kamikaze bank have bet everything on the Northern Rock model.

:lol:

There's something fishy about Sushi Bank.

errr, what else is there about japanese culture we can use to keep this joke going?

I know!

The Bank of Vending Machined Schoolgirl Panties have hit the skids. (tenuous to the extreme and i think that's me out.)

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Whatever way they spin it you can bet your bottom devalued dollar they will use it as a reason to keep rates low.

What a big of luck for the bankers....

And there is also a sudden push for the use of renewable energy compared to nuclear as a result.

It makes for one hell of a conspiracy theory. Ticks a few boxes. Then again - I dont think the lizards can start earthquakes to cause tsunamis.

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Right, so the population is going to be hauling money out of banks to pay for rebuilding.

This will lead to is resulting in a crashing stockmarket, and also other assets (foreign bonds?) falling in price in a rapid sell off.

The Japanese state fears a deflationary spiral (otherwise known as the population discovering their credit balances are not backed by money). So it prints billions of Yen.

Of course, much of this new money is channelled into "investments" such as food and fuel, which Japan is going to have to import more of. So the global price goes up. And then up again as everyone else piles in. Fuel is getting more expensive anyways because there isn't as much left as people thought and much of it is under failing states.

A biflationary spiral kicks in as assets are liquidated to fund speculation on commodities.

People can't afford to buy food and fuel, so they sell assets / raid bank accounts.

Essentially, the existing global situation just got a moonshot.

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I come on here because I want to read informed opinions on how this unbelievable disaster will affect us here in the UK. Clearly the disgusting bankers and power people aren't exactly brimming with emotion and sympathy as they gear up with talk on the news about 'rebuilding' and 'new growth'. The money markets are nervously waiting to see what happens. And Japan is printing billions and billions and billions.

I was pretty shocked by the uttering of one money pundit on Sky news at the height of the Japanese disaster, she basically said, and I am paraphrasing ," well yes it is such a devastating loss for the Japanese, with many thousands dead but life goes on,so lets look at how this is likely to effect the money markets...etc" :o wtf...

What a heartless human being. This is the sort of odious scum bag that will go out and buy millions of tons of rice and keep it in a warehouse until the people are dying of starvation and then sell it back to them at a huge mark up.

You can bet that someone is going to make a mint out of all this.

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Origami Bank will fold, and Tai Chi bank will have slowly stretch its resources, but remain poised and balanced.

The Zendo Bank is taking a relaxed, steady approach.

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So as concisely as possible, please can people spell out clearly in layman's speak the different ways this may pan out for us in the UK, especially with regard to house prices? Obviously if the world is completely irradiated then no need to worry!

None of this will have any discernable effect on UK house prices.

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Right, so the population is going to be hauling money out of banks to pay for rebuilding.

This will lead to is resulting in a crashing stockmarket, and also other assets (foreign bonds?) falling in price in a rapid sell off.

The Japanese state fears a deflationary spiral (otherwise known as the population discovering their credit balances are not backed by money). So it prints billions of Yen.

Of course, much of this new money is channelled into "investments" such as food and fuel, which Japan is going to have to import more of. So the global price goes up. And then up again as everyone else piles in. Fuel is getting more expensive anyways because there isn't as much left as people thought and much of it is under failing states.

A biflationary spiral kicks in as assets are liquidated to fund speculation on commodities.

People can't afford to buy food and fuel, so they sell assets / raid bank accounts.

Essentially, the existing global situation just got a moonshot.

Japanese savers are big overseas investors (directly or indirectly), investing where they could get a good interest rate. For example The UK up to 2007-8 ended up with a lot of Japanese cash flooding in as the IRs were higher than Europe or US as soon as IR dropped the cash started being invested else where.

One localised example of this was funding increased mortgage borrowing in the the UK from 2001 onwards that helped fuel the HP boom (before 2001 the UK bank lending was net UK funded).

If they start backing out of overseas investments, "real" IRs will increase outside Japan.

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Japanese savers are big overseas investors (directly or indirectly), investing where they could get a good interest rate. For example The UK up to 2007-8 ended up with a lot of Japanese cash flooding in as the IRs were higher than Europe or US as soon as IR dropped the cash started being invested else where.

One localised example of this was funding increased mortgage borrowing in the the UK from 2001 onwards that helped fuel the HP boom (before 2001 the UK bank lending was net UK funded).

If they start backing out of overseas investments, "real" IRs will increase outside Japan.

I can't see how even more QE can prevent this.

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This will hit my buisness/industry hard... I have dealings with Sony, Fujinon, Canon, Panasonic, JVC etc..

Sendai was where the tsunami hit - not a manufacturer!! It is where a lot of the components for the electrical companies are based!!

Plenty of people employed in the uk working for those firms mentioned. Sony were struggling anyway and had virtually laid off 40% of uk staff over past two years.

Supply issues will hit within the next 4-6 weeks... Even a two week gap in supply will be enough to sink many struggling companies.

Interesting times indeed.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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