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Timm

Home.co.uk March 2011

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+0.4% MoM, -0.8% YoY

Spring brings increased activity in the UK home market. Increased optimism among

new sellers has lifted home prices this month bucking a 4-month downward trend.

This more positive outlook has also produced a supply surge of properties new on the

market in February (40% more than in Feb 2010). However, vendors are also

resorting to price-cutting: 76% more properties were reduced in price in Fen 2011

than compared to Feb 2010. This underlines the fact that buyer sentiment remains

subdued due to concerns over inflation, job security, future house price stability and

mortgage-deposit woes. Numbers of first-time buyers remain very low but this is

partly compensated for by increased buy-to-let activity. A rejuvenated rental sector

will be attracting the attention of frustrated sellers and increasing numbers may

choose to let out their properties. Rental demand is strengthening and this will serve

to help support house prices in the near term.

That does look like a bit of a surge in stock though...

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Non seasonally adjusted. prices have always and will always rise in spring. SA is very important IMO. this needs to be compared to previous years.

I like the supply surge :)

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"The number of properties reduced in price has increased further to 76,075

for the month of February, 76% more than in February 2010."

"Properties new to market in Feb 2011 was 40% higher than in Feb 2010"

"Year-on-year (YoY) asking prices continue to slide suggesting that the current

optimism among vendors with properties new to the market may be unfounded.

When corrected for the effect of inflation (RPI ex. housing) the annual fall is around

7%. This represents a loss on capital invested in the typical UK home (£182,000) of

around £12,000 per year."

Nice!

:)

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"The number of properties reduced in price has increased further to 76,075

for the month of February, 76% more than in February 2010."

"Properties new to market in Feb 2011 was 40% higher than in Feb 2010"

"Year-on-year (YoY) asking prices continue to slide suggesting that the current

optimism among vendors with properties new to the market may be unfounded.

When corrected for the effect of inflation (RPI ex. housing) the annual fall is around

7%. This represents a loss on capital invested in the typical UK home (£182,000) of

around £12,000 per year."

Nice!

:)

Yip - they only go up in price.

Have been trying to convince an EA on the EAT site that the theory of HPs doubling every seven years went out the window once mortgage companies started letting people make up their own incomes. In the last seven years, according to some indices, HPs are in nominal terms exactly the same... That would, according to the doubling every seven years theory, make them some 50% undervalued now (:unsure:) and to get back to the trend hit an average of 640K by 2018 :o.

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There seems to be some pretty bearish commentary in the report starting off with a quote under the title on page1 which would be quite at home in many an HPCers signature...

" Inflation, debt monetization, and currency debasement are not new. They have been used for the past few thousand years as means to get rid of debt. In fact, they work pretty well.” John Maudlin, Author.

Pointing out that the time on the market only fell because of an influx on newly market properties deserves marks for honesty.

All thought it is up MoM, this is an NSA figure and there is not much spring bounce, with London doing its own thing (again).

This survey is quite a good leading indicator and points to a lack of spring bounce especially in any seasonally adjusted data.

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Headline figure makes sense - surge or new property for sale + lots of deluded sellers (RM was up around 3%) = average asking price will have risen. With each month on the market and time wasted with viewings (if they're lucky!), the delusions will fall away though ;)

Love this quote btw:

Higher inflation is eroding home prices in real terms more quickly. Hence, capital tied up in bricks and mortar is losing purchasing power when compared to goods and services. By comparing ONS January figures and the YoY change in asking prices for the same month shows that asking prices were still falling in real terms, by 6.4% per year, relative to the RPI (ex. housing).

And the times I've heard bulls try to claim that property is a great infaltion hedge (and this isn't even talking about actual selling prices) :lol:

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Headline figure makes sense - surge or new property for sale + lots of deluded sellers (RM was up around 3%) = average asking price will have risen. With each month on the market and time wasted with viewings (if they're lucky!), the delusions will fall away though ;)

Love this quote btw:

And the times I've heard bulls try to claim that property is a great infaltion hedge (and this isn't even talking about actual selling prices) :lol:

The OP's tag line of don't read if you can't stand bullish news doesn't quite ring true as there are plenty of bear nibble nicely stated in the report.

The report seems to match what HPCers are seeing and that includes plenty of deluded sellers.

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The OP's tag line of don't read if you can't stand bullish news doesn't quite ring true as there are plenty of bear nibble nicely stated in the report.

The report seems to match what HPCers are seeing and that includes plenty of deluded sellers.

I quite agree - the sub-title was utter rubbish.

I was just trying to be controversial.

:)

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When corrected for the effect of inflation (RPI ex. housing) the annual fall is around

7%. This represents a loss on capital invested in the typical UK home (£182,000) free cash for renters of

around £12,000 per year."

B)

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"increased optimism had increased home prices this month".

I do wish they'd say increased ASKING prices.

While the increase is of little significance being quite small, the increase in properties coming to market is interesting, though I don't see it around my way - 40% more than last Feb apparently!

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"increased optimism had increased home prices this month".

I do wish they'd say increased ASKING prices.

While the increase is of little significance being quite small, the increase in properties coming to market is interesting, though I don't see it around my way - 40% more than last Feb apparently!

Meanwhile, on another pale blue forum:

http://www.creditcru...dpost__p__24993

Jun 11 2009

OX1 116 listed, 79 available

OX2 335 listed, 197 available

OX3 227 listed, 152 available

OX4 386 listed, 210 available

Personal search* 287 listed, 132 available

* Houses only, 100-250k, whole of Oxford

http://www.creditcru...dpost__p__54208

Mar 17 2010

OX1 134 listed, 83 available

OX2 362 listed, 223 available

OX3 306 listed, 216 available

OX4 385 listed, 259 available

Personal search 270 listed, 169 available

http://www.creditcru...post__p__145567

March 10th 2011

OX1 144 listed, 106 available

OX2 376 listed, 258 available

OX3 336 listed, 258 available

OX4 558 listed, 425 available

Personal search 329 listed, 235 available

So up about 34% on last year from where I'm sitting...

In OX4, which as close as Oxford gets to mid market, stock is up over 100% on when I started recording levels in June 2009 (on the forumthatcannotbenamed).

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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