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Scott Sando

Friday’S “Day Of Rage” In Saudi Arabia Could Rock The World

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Red alert: Friday’s “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia could rock the world

10 March 2011

tags: saudi arabiaby Fabius Maximus

.Summary: Friday might be an important day, perhaps the most important day of the decade. It’s the Day of Rage in Saudi Arabia. The Princes have mobilized their vast security services to prevent or disperse the protests. Will anybody dare to show up? Will the Princes order the use of force? Will the crowds resist? The consequences could send oil prices skyrocketing, shaking the world. Many have guesses but nobody knows the outcome. Updates will appear below (and in the right-side meu bar).

Tunesia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain. Now it’s Saudi Arabia’s turn. Most of the usual sources (e.g., Stratfor) have said almost nothing about Friday. But there are hints, some of which appear below.

If the Princes fall it will be no Black Swan. Experts have long said that unsustainable trends will lead to disaster for the Saudi Princes (unless they flee promptly).

■Elderly rulers, with the grandkids next in line, and no proven mechanism for the transfer of power.

■A young population (median age 2). Poorly educated (Islamic studies are at the core of the curriculum). Depression-like levels of unemployment — with many of the employed at overpaid make-work. Idle, with few prospects.

■A surplus of males (9.6 million male, 7.5 female). Many of the men cannot pay the Mahr (see Wikipedia), the bride price often necessary to marry.

■Saudi national finances totally depend on oil exports, but the government runs deficits as spending outpaces even rising oil prices.

■Rapidly increasing consumption of oil takes an increasing fraction of oil production, putting pressure on vital oil exports.

The terminal factor is the large and rapidly growing population. The population from 4 million to about 26 million today, of which 6 million are foreigners. That’s fast, even for this region. Totally cracked for a nation most of which is desert.

Nation 1950 2010 rate/year

Afghan 08.1 29.1 2.1%

Egypt 21.2 80.5 2.2%

Iran 16.4 77.0 2.6%

Iraq 05.2 29.7 2.9%

Saudi A 03.9 25.7 3.2%

Source: US Census International Data Base

Information about the Day of Rage

(1) Here is the one of he few useful bits of hard news, perhaps foreshadowing events: “Small protest in Saudi despite government warning“, AP, 9 March 2011. Especially note this:

The kingdom does not interfere in the affairs of others and will not allow for anyone to interfere in its own affairs,” Prince Saud al-Faisal said Wednesday at a press conference in Saudi Arabia’s port of Jiddah. Using a figure of speech, he said his regime would “cut off any finger” raised against the regime. “Reform cannot be achieved through protests … The best way to achieve demands is through national dialogue,” he said.

I love the reporters’ assurance that this was only “a figure of speech.” Probably not.

(2) Establishment sources here and there give confident predictions that there will be no protests, or only small ones. This is the only contrary note I’ve found in the mainstream news media: “Saudi Arabia is losing its fear“, Eman Al Nafjan (writes the Saudiwoman’s Weblog about Saudi society, women, and human rights issues; she lives in Riyadh), op-ed in The Guardian, 8 March 2011 — “There’s no doubt the kingdom is ripe for revolution, and any security forces violence at Friday’s protests could ignite the fuse”. Esp note this, showing how the Saudi establishment presents a unified front to agitation for change:

Then the highest religious establishment, the Council of Senior Clerics, deemed protests and petitions as un-Islamic {see Reuters}. The Shura Council, our government-appointed pretend-parliament, also threw its weight behind the interior ministry’s ban and the religious decree of prohibition {See Arab News}.

(3) The best analysis I’ve seen: “Saudi Arabia’s Day of Rage“, Hugh Miles, blog of the London Review of Books, 8 March 2011 — Excerpt:

Sunni opposition sources claim to have received assurances from the police that this time they will refuse orders to fire on demonstrators. … Anti-government activists say the police have covertly released demonstrators unharmed after promising them their support in future.

… In the event that force is used, however, organisers expect the demonstrations quickly to turn violent: unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, in Saudi Arabia there’s a large number of guns in private hands. ‘In Saudi Arabia an estimated 80 to 90% of families have a weapon in their house and around 50% of those weapons are AK-47s,’ an opposition source told me. ‘If I go on a peaceful demonstration and I am shot by the police and I am the son of a tribe then 100% definitely my brother will bring a Kalashnikov and kill the policeman who killed me and he will kill more, five or ten. They know this, the police, and so I’ve been told by many ordinary individuals and officers that no way will they shoot us even if they are given orders and if force is used it will backfire in a very aggressive manner.’

… ‘Our supporters say: “Ask us to kill anybody and we are ready. We will go and invade the governor’s office or storm the Ministry of Interior.” But they refuse to participate in a peaceful demonstration as they don’t want the humiliation of going unarmed to be hit over the head by a stupid policeman.

While today.....

Saudi Police Open Fire At Protest RallySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2011 13:25 -0500

AP reports that the Saudi police open fire at protesters in Qatif after government warns demonstrators it will not tolerate protests. "A witness in the eastern city of Qatif says gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. The witness saw at least one protester injured." In other words, the shootings will continue until morale is restored. Look for crude to go antigravitational here.

Could be fireworks tomorrow? What do people think

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Yes just added the gunshots Info. to the dollar bulls thread.

Wouldn't want to be holding too many greenbacks if that kicks off.

Could be SHTF time tomorow - if not it'll be soon.

All couresy of the magic printing press of helicopter Ben - who says economics is boring!

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Yes just added the gunshots Info. to the dollar bulls thread.

Wouldn't want to be holding too many greenbacks if that kicks off.

Could be SHTF time tomorow - if not it'll be soon.

All couresy of the magic printing press of helicopter Ben - who says economics is boring!

They can only keep the lid on the pan so long. The Saudi royal famiy years ago bought up houses in spain to move too in case of rebellion, they may have to get their tickets soon.

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$200 for a barrel of oil. We will be all wishing we didn't concrete over the back garden.................buy seeds protect yourself :unsure:

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Yes just added the gunshots Info. to the dollar bulls thread.

Wouldn't want to be holding too many greenbacks if that kicks off.

Could be SHTF time tomorow - if not it'll be soon.

All couresy of the magic printing press of helicopter Ben - who says economics is boring!

On the contrary - would be very good news for $.

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$200 for a barrel of oil. We will be all wishing we didn't concrete over the back garden.................buy seeds protect yourself :unsure:

I'd say thats coming soon enough, if its bad enough, maybe by Monday, black Monday I'm calling my first :lol:

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I am in Saudi.

I will be very surprised if anything at all happens tommorrow.

but... but... but... it MUST be true if I read it on t'web :lol:

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I am in Saudi.

I will be very surprised if anything at all happens tommorrow.

Agreed. It ain't gonna happen. Big bounce tomorrow when the nothingburger is delivered.

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If the Libyan people had succeeded in overthrowing Gaddafi, I would expect major protests to spread rapidly to places like Saudi Arabia.

But since it looks like Gadaffi is winning back control of Libya, I doubt if anything much will happen in Saudi.

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but... but... but... it MUST be true if I read it on t'web :lol:

I suppose Tunisia Libya, Egypt, Yemen ,Bahrain, are just a figment of my imagination and this

Washington Post

Saudi police open fire at protest

CAIRO -- Saudi police have opened fire at a rally in the kingdom's east in an apparent escalation of efforts to stop planned protests.

Government officials have warned they will take strong action if activists take to the streets after increasing calls for large protests around the oil-rich kingdom to press for democratic reforms.

A witness in the eastern city of Qatif says gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. The witness saw at least one protester injured.

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I suppose Tunisia Libya, Egypt, Yemen ,Bahrain, are just a figment of my imagination and this

Doesn't necessarily mean things are going to blow up in Saudi Arabia.

Feel free to keep posting doom threads and praying for global armageddon every day - but you take internet blogs at face value at your peril...

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I suppose Tunisia Libya, Egypt, Yemen ,Bahrain, are just a figment of my imagination and this

To be fair the thread subject is Saudi Arabia and not the countries that you quoted.

The demographic in Saudi is different, for a start it is majority Sunni, around 95% as opposed to Bharain which is around 60% shia.

The government has just written off lots of personal debt and given public sector workers a 10-15% pay rise.

It is possible there will be trouble but the chance of mass rioting is very minimal.

We have no security intelligence suggesting anything major will happen tommorrow.

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Sell oil buy dollars?

Ben can print but the Saudis might not be able to pump. OK.

I mean $ relative to other currencies. God knows what will happen to the hard stuff.

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I suppose Tunisia Libya, Egypt, Yemen ,Bahrain, are just a figment of my imagination and this

Then of course there is also Jordan and Syria.

But I guess its just coincidence - nothing to see here.

I guess 27 odd million people are happy to live under one of the worlds most repressive regimes whilst their neighbours gain their freedom.

Iran won't have any ambitions on destabilisng the regime and becoming the defacto power in the region.

Fundamentalists won't see the saudi oil fields and infrastructure as the ultimate prize against the west.

Itll all be fine .... until it isn't.

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The government has just written off lots of personal debt and given public sector workers a 10-15% pay rise.

A tactic used by the Colonel in Libya and Mubarak in Egypt correct?

From my armchair it looks like it has the potential but the level of discontent is questionable.

It was telling that the first thing the prince did upon his recent return to the country was to shower people in money. Those are not the actions of a man with nothing to fear.

Personally if I was an unemployed youth in Saudi Arabia (and I read there's a lot of them) I'd certainly think about using the best chance in years of demanding a cut of the oil wealth the house of Saud sees fit to deny me.

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$200 barrel of oil

War in the middle east

Default on USA debt

New world currency

Huge oil reserves opened up on American soil

It's true I tell ya, Alex Jones said so :unsure:

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somthing else thats isn't happening

Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

By Robert Fisk, Middle East Correspondent

Saturday, 5 March 2011

Saudi security forces in armoured vehicles responding to the threat of a Shia uprising this week

Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim provinces, clogging the highways into Dammam and other cities with busloads of troops in fear of next week's "day of rage" by what is now called the "Hunayn Revolution".

Saudi Arabia's worst nightmare – the arrival of the new Arab awakening of rebellion and insurrection in the kingdom – is now casting its long shadow over the House of Saud. Provoked by the Shia majority uprising in the neighbouring Sunni-dominated island of Bahrain, where protesters are calling for the overthrow of the ruling al-Khalifa family, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is widely reported to have told the Bahraini authorities that if they do not crush their Shia revolt, his own forces will.

The opposition is expecting at least 20,000 Saudis to gather in Riyadh and in the Shia Muslim provinces of the north-east of the country in six days, to demand an end to corruption and, if necessary, the overthrow of the House of Saud. Saudi security forces have deployed troops and armed police across the Qatif area – where most of Saudi Arabia's Shia Muslims live – and yesterday would-be protesters circulated photographs of armoured vehicles and buses of the state-security police on a highway near the port city of Dammam.

Although desperate to avoid any outside news of the extent of the protests spreading, Saudi security officials have known for more than a month that the revolt of Shia Muslims in the tiny island of Bahrain was expected to spread to Saudi Arabia. Within the Saudi kingdom, thousands of emails and Facebook messages have encouraged Saudi Sunni Muslims to join the planned demonstrations across the "conservative" and highly corrupt kingdom. They suggest – and this idea is clearly co-ordinated – that during confrontations with armed police or the army next Friday, Saudi women should be placed among the front ranks of the protesters to dissuade the Saudi security forces from opening fire.

If the Saudi royal family decides to use maximum violence against demonstrators, US President Barack Obama will be confronted by one of the most sensitive Middle East decisions of his administration. In Egypt, he only supported the demonstrators after the police used unrestrained firepower against protesters. But in Saudi Arabia – supposedly a "key ally" of the US and one of the world's principal oil producers – he will be loath to protect the innocent.

So far, the Saudi authorities have tried to dissuade their own people from supporting the 11 March demonstrations on the grounds that many protesters are "Iraqis and Iranians". It's the same old story used by Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt and Bouteflika of Algeria and Saleh of Yemen and the al-Khalifas of Bahrain: "foreign hands" are behind every democratic insurrection in the Middle East.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Mr Obama will be gritting their teeth next Friday in the hope that either the protesters appear in small numbers or that the Saudis "restrain" their cops and security; history suggests this is unlikely. When Saudi academics have in the past merely called for reforms, they have been harassed or arrested. King Abdullah, albeit a very old man, does not brook rebel lords or restive serfs telling him to make concessions to youth. His £27bn bribe of improved education and housing subsidies is unlikely to meet their demands.

An indication of the seriousness of the revolt against the Saudi royal family comes in its chosen title: Hunayn. This is a valley near Mecca, the scene of one of the last major battles of the Prophet Mohamed against a confederation of Bedouins in AD630. The Prophet won a tight victory after his men were fearful of their opponents. The reference in the Koran, 9: 25-26, as translated by Tarif el-Khalidi, contains a lesson for the Saudi princes: "God gave you victory on many battlefields. Recall the day of Hunayn when you fancied your great numbers.

"So the earth, with all its wide expanse, narrowed before you and you turned tail and fled. Then God made his serenity to descend upon his Messenger and the believers, and sent down troops you did not see – and punished the unbelievers." The unbelievers, of course, are supposed – in the eyes of the Hunayn Revolution – to be the King and his thousand princes.

Like almost every other Arab potentate over the past three months, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia suddenly produced economic bribes and promised reforms when his enemy was at the gates. Can the Arabs be bribed? Their leaders can, perhaps, especially when, in the case of Egypt, Washington was offering it the largest handout of dollars – $1.5bn (£800m) – after Israel. But when the money rarely trickles down to impoverished and increasingly educated youth, past promises are recalled and mocked. With oil prices touching $120 a barrel and the Libyan debacle lowering its production by up to 75 per cent, the serious economic – and moral, should this interest the Western powers – question, is how long the "civilised world" can go on supporting the nation whose citizens made up almost all of the suicide killers of 9/11?

The Arabian peninsula gave the world the Prophet and the Arab Revolt against the Ottomans and the Taliban and 9/11 and – let us speak the truth – al-Qa'ida. This week's protests in the kingdom will therefore affect us all – but none more so than the supposedly conservative and definitely hypocritical pseudo-state, run by a company without shareholders called the House of Saud.

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What occurs to my eye is that the serious unrest seems to be occurring in the poorer non oil producing countries of the Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of Libya.

And Libya does seem to be an exception because the good Colonel looks like an uber smack head and his sons hardly look better.

I suspect the important oil producing nations have enough wonga to buy off dissent.

OK, there is stuff going on, an arrest in Saudi, a bomb in Baghdad, a demo in Tehran but nothing worse than normal.

Time will tell, I suppose.

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Then of course there is also Jordan and Syria.

But I guess its just coincidence - nothing to see here.

I guess 27 odd million people are happy to live under one of the worlds most repressive regimes whilst their neighbours gain their freedom.

Iran won't have any ambitions on destabilisng the regime and becoming the defacto power in the region.

Fundamentalists won't see the saudi oil fields and infrastructure as the ultimate prize against the west.

Itll all be fine .... until it isn't.

Of course it has the potential for something to happen.

BUT this topic is about the day of rage planned for tommorrow not about something that may happen sometime in the future.

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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