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Oil Markets Brace For Saudi 'rage' As Global Spare Capacity Wears Thin

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8369427/Oil-markets-brace-for-Saudi-rage-as-global-spare-capacity-wears-thin.html

Goldman Sachs suspects that OPEC has been pumping far above its agreed quota since November and therefore cannot easily raise output much without cutting deep into global spare capacity.

Jeff Currie, the bank's oil guru, said Saudi output had quietly crept up by 700,000 barrels a day (bpd) even before the Libyan supply shock.

Assumptions that OPEC has added 1.9m bpd over the last two years are wishful thinking. These new fields have been "largely offset" by attrition in old fields.

"We believe that OPEC spare capacity has already dropped below 2m bpd. The question therefore arises how much spare capacity is left to absorb potential supply disruptions in other countries," he said.

If this picture is broadly correct, spare capacity is already close to the wafer-thin levels that led to wild price moves in mid-2008.

It is the giant squid, however is the world oil supply about to hit a brick wall?

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I think we need that Chinese bubble to burst asap.

Which is incredibly bad due to unforseen consequences! I.e. the CCP will cling onto power as long as possible. And what do you do if you have 250million young Chinese men and women without jobs? Conscript them and have them March on India/Russia/Korea/Japan/Taiwan. You and I will be conscripted ..... well you will be conscripted to defend whatever it is happens to be their target...

People like me will be put in the gas chambers the moment it kicks off.

Imjin River?

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It is the giant squid, however is the world oil supply about to hit a brick wall?

Hit a brick wall about 2006. Luckily we had a major financial crisis and recession, things could have got ugly otherwise.

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Which is incredibly bad due to unforseen consequences! I.e. the CCP will cling onto power as long as possible. And what do you do if you have 250million young Chinese men and women without jobs? Conscript them and have them March on India/Russia/Korea/Japan/Taiwan. You and I will be conscripted ..... well you will be conscripted to defend whatever it is happens to be their target...

...

India and Russia have nukes.

And if the war you are suggesting really is about competition for finite resources superpowers will be looking for an excuse to use WMD of some kind. Nothing quite like a massive fall in population to give you demand destruction and make those resources last a bit longer

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India and Russia have nukes.

And if the war you are suggesting really is about competition for finite resources superpowers will be looking for an excuse to use WMD of some kind. Nothing quite like a massive fall in population to give you demand destruction and make those resources last a bit longer

Vote Virus.

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India and Russia have nukes.

And if the war you are suggesting really is about competition for finite resources superpowers will be looking for an excuse to use WMD of some kind. Nothing quite like a massive fall in population to give you demand destruction and make those resources last a bit longer

India and China have the biggest populations which makes even more sense. It'll be a limited war i.e. they'll have a massive border skirmish with millions of casulties. I.e. they'll agree before hand not to use nuclear bombs. They will also have two infantry rushes into each others machine guns everyday to maximise casulties.

Still there is always Taiwan, which has no nuclear bombs (officially) so it'd be the PRC vs the 7th fleet. The Americans have the tech edge. The Chinese have more cannon fodder than the US has bullets.

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India and China have the biggest populations which makes even more sense. It'll be a limited war i.e. they'll have a massive border skirmish with millions of casulties. I.e. they'll agree before hand not to use nuclear bombs. They will also have two infantry rushes into each others machine guns everyday to maximise casulties.

Still there is always Taiwan, which has no nuclear bombs (officially) so it'd be the PRC vs the 7th fleet. The Americans have the tech edge. The Chinese have more cannon fodder than the US has bullets.

Presumably these millions will leave their Bentleys and Easyjet tickets at home whilst they're getting massacre?

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Saudi Arabia's voices of discontent

Are social reforms enough to avert a revolution in the kingdom?

Saudi Arabia has mobilised thousands of troops to try to quell rising dissent in the kingdom. Protestors have called for a 'day of rage' and are using social network sites to rally protestors.

........

Joining the programme to discuss these issues are Abdulaziz Alkhames, a campaigner for Saudi Human Rights Centre; Mai Yamani, the author of Changed Identities: the challenge of the new generation in Saudi Arabia; and Khaled Almaeena, the editor-in-chief of the English-language daily Arab News.

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/03/20113812947713373.html

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Not much will happen in Saudi Arabia until Gaddafi is toppled and Libya calms down. If he isn't toppled, there won't be any major uprisings in other Arab nations.

How one earth do you work that out Nostradamus?

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I guess that if Opec cannot ramp up production to match the output being lost then it will give some serious credibility to the peak oil arguments......

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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