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Realistbear

Reuters: 90% Probability Of No Hike This Week

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-likely-hold-fire-rates-reuters_molt-720201680.html?x=0

Bank likely to hold fire on rates - for now
Christina Fincher, 12:53, Tuesday 8 March 2011
LONDON (
Reuters
) - The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates at a record low this Thursday, judging that Britain's recovery is currently too fragile to sustain a spiral of rising prices.
It is not a foregone conclusion, however. Some policymakers are growing increasingly nervous about the threat of inflation, and three of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise interest rates in February.
Markets are pricing in a
10 percent probability of a rate rise this week
, half the chance they ascribed for a move in February, which would have coincided with the Bank's quarterly economic forecasting round.

It appears that the only thing behind food inflation is grocer gouging (see thread on this) so no need for the bank to hike in the face of a collapsing economy. Makes sense to me anyway.

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they wont raise the rates this month, let the country finish this tax year with the low rate, report the figures to the city and get shareholders happy they managed to live though another year, and then start the new year with a rate rise.

it will* happen next month, it makes more sence to do it then than now.

there will probably be a 40/60 split against a rise this month, with next month being the reverse, just a small 0.25% rise, just ot test the water, then nothing for 3 months and possibly another 0.25% and like this for the next 2 years**

* i could be wrong and April will be no rise as well, or they may raise it this month

** it aldepends on the ecconomy, if it doesnt like the 0.25% or another factor makes the FTSE/Ecconomy/Banks fall, the rises may get steeper and quicker, or they may lower it back to the historic low we are at now.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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